Comparing Trends in Modeled and Observed Streamflows at Minimally Altered Basins in the United States

We compared modeled and observed streamflow trends from 1984 to 2016 using five statistical transfer models and one deterministic, distributed-parameter, process-based model, for 26 flow metrics at 502 basins in the United States that are minimally influenced by development. We also looked at a meas...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inWater (Basel) Vol. 12; no. 6; p. 1728
Main Authors Hodgkins, Glenn A., Dudley, Robert W., Russell, Amy M., LaFontaine, Jacob H.
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Basel MDPI AG 01.06.2020
Subjects
Basins
Basins (Geology)
Bias
Correlation analysis
deterministic model
Environmental aspects
Forecasts and trends
Hydrologic cycle
Information systems
Infrastructure
Mathematical models
Precipitation
Process parameters
Runoff
Statistical analysis
statistical model
Stream discharge
Stream flow
Streamflow
Topography
trend
Trends
United States
United States
United States > US
Europe
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Summary:We compared modeled and observed streamflow trends from 1984 to 2016 using five statistical transfer models and one deterministic, distributed-parameter, process-based model, for 26 flow metrics at 502 basins in the United States that are minimally influenced by development. We also looked at a measure of overall model fit and average bias. A higher percentage of basins, for all models, had relatively low trend differences between modeled and observed mean/median flows than for very high or low flows such as the annual 1-day high and 7-day low flows. Mean-flow metrics also had the largest percentage of basins with relatively good overall model fit and low bias. The five statistical transfer models performed better at more basins than the process-based model. The overall model fit for all models, for mean and/or high flows, was correlated with one or more measures of basin precipitation or aridity. Our study and previous studies generally observed good model performance for high flows up to 90th or 95th percentile flows. However, we found model performance was substantially worse for more extreme flows, including 99th percentile and annual 1-day high flows, indicating the importance of including more extreme high flows in analyses of model performance.
ISSN:2073-4441
2073-4441
DOI:10.3390/w12061728