Asset stranding in natural gas export facilities: An agent-based simulation
This paper analyses the scale of asset stranding of global natural gas production and transmission infrastructure between 2015 and 2060 using Gas-GAME-Spot, an agent-based gas-sector model. It extends the existing modelling efforts by considering contract constraints in short-term gas sales and expl...
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| Published in | Energy policy Vol. 132; pp. 132 - 155 |
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| Main Authors | , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
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Kidlington
Elsevier Ltd
01.09.2019
Elsevier Science Ltd |
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| Abstract | This paper analyses the scale of asset stranding of global natural gas production and transmission infrastructure between 2015 and 2060 using Gas-GAME-Spot, an agent-based gas-sector model. It extends the existing modelling efforts by considering contract constraints in short-term gas sales and explicitly simulating trade in two types of spot markets. The study also contributes to the methodologies of stranded asset analysis by taking into account two aspects which are commonly overlooked: market fluctuation subject to the changing export capacities and the impacts of market signals on investor decision making. The results of the base scenario indicate that if gas demand follows current policy expectations, the scale of asset stranding is likely to be limited. This is attributed to supply capacity shortage of medium-sized exporters due to a slowing of their investment. Moreover, two alternative scenarios show that, when the markets face sudden reduction in demand, they leverage the flexibilities in their long-term contracts and opt more gas through spot trade. Though the issue of stranding is not significant globally in these scenarios, exporting regions with high short-run delivery costs, especially North America and Australia, have higher risks of asset stranding as they are arguably less competitive in spot sales.
•Gas-GAME-Spot simulates gas export asset stranding with an agent-based framework.•Global stranding is limited due to reduced investment by medium-sized exporters.•Markets can alleviate asset stranding by reflecting declined demand in contracting.•Contract-based trade bounds the stranding risk if future demand decreases abruptly.•Export regions with higher short-run costs face more risks of stranding. |
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| AbstractList | This paper analyses the scale of asset stranding of global natural gas production and transmission infrastructure between 2015 and 2060 using Gas-GAME-Spot, an agent-based gas-sector model. It extends the existing modelling efforts by considering contract constraints in short-term gas sales and explicitly simulating trade in two types of spot markets. The study also contributes to the methodologies of stranded asset analysis by taking into account two aspects which are commonly overlooked: market fluctuation subject to the changing export capacities and the impacts of market signals on investor decision making. The results of the base scenario indicate that if gas demand follows current policy expectations, the scale of asset stranding is likely to be limited. This is attributed to supply capacity shortage of medium-sized exporters due to a slowing of their investment. Moreover, two alternative scenarios show that, when the markets face sudden reduction in demand, they leverage the flexibilities in their long-term contracts and opt more gas through spot trade. Though the issue of stranding is not significant globally in these scenarios, exporting regions with high short-run delivery costs, especially North America and Australia, have higher risks of asset stranding as they are arguably less competitive in spot sales. This paper analyses the scale of asset stranding of global natural gas production and transmission infrastructure between 2015 and 2060 using Gas-GAME-Spot, an agent-based gas-sector model. It extends the existing modelling efforts by considering contract constraints in short-term gas sales and explicitly simulating trade in two types of spot markets. The study also contributes to the methodologies of stranded asset analysis by taking into account two aspects which are commonly overlooked: market fluctuation subject to the changing export capacities and the impacts of market signals on investor decision making. The results of the base scenario indicate that if gas demand follows current policy expectations, the scale of asset stranding is likely to be limited. This is attributed to supply capacity shortage of medium-sized exporters due to a slowing of their investment. Moreover, two alternative scenarios show that, when the markets face sudden reduction in demand, they leverage the flexibilities in their long-term contracts and opt more gas through spot trade. Though the issue of stranding is not significant globally in these scenarios, exporting regions with high short-run delivery costs, especially North America and Australia, have higher risks of asset stranding as they are arguably less competitive in spot sales. •Gas-GAME-Spot simulates gas export asset stranding with an agent-based framework.•Global stranding is limited due to reduced investment by medium-sized exporters.•Markets can alleviate asset stranding by reflecting declined demand in contracting.•Contract-based trade bounds the stranding risk if future demand decreases abruptly.•Export regions with higher short-run costs face more risks of stranding. |
| Author | Hawkes, Adam Guo, Yingjian |
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| CitedBy_id | crossref_primary_10_1016_j_energy_2020_117535 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_esr_2021_100734 crossref_primary_10_1002_wcc_756 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_energy_2023_129254 crossref_primary_10_3390_su13158674 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_trd_2023_103949 crossref_primary_10_21511_imfi_20_4__2023_31 crossref_primary_10_3390_su12104235 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_jngse_2021_103897 |
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| Keywords | Agent-based modelling Natural gas asset stranding Contract-driven investment Spot trade simulation Market signalling Investors' responses to markets |
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| SubjectTerms | Agent-based modelling Agent-based models Assets Australia Computer simulation Constraint modelling Contract-driven investment Decision making Energy policy Expectations Exports Gas production Infrastructure Investors' responses to markets issues and policy Leverage Market signalling Markets Natural gas Natural gas asset stranding North America Oil and gas production risk Sales Simulation Spot trade simulation Stranding Trade Variation |
| Title | Asset stranding in natural gas export facilities: An agent-based simulation |
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