Spatiotemporal Variations in Drought and Wetness from 1965 to 2017 in China

• Published in: Water (Basel) Vol. 12; no. 8; p. 2097
• Main Authors: Zeng, Zhaoqi, Wu, Wenxiang, Li, Yamei, Zhou, Yang, Zhang, Zhengtao, Zhang, Shuilong, Guo, Yahui, Huang, Han, Li, Zhaolei
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Basel MDPI AG 01.08.2020
• Subjects: 1965 AD; 2017 AD; Agricultural production; Agriculture; Analysis; China; Climate change; Crops; Drought; Droughts; Drying; Environmental risk; Evapotranspiration; Floods; Global warming; Hydrology; Moisture content; Precipitation; Precipitation (Meteorology); Socioeconomic factors; standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index; trend; Trends; Water resources; wetness; Wetting; China; Tibetan Plateau
• DOI: 10.3390/w12082097
• ISSN: 2073-4441

Drought and extreme precipitation events can have major environmental and socioeconomic impacts. Yet, how drought and wetness are changing in China in the context of climate change is still under debate. Here, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was calculated based on high-quality and more densely distributed daily meteorological observation data from 655 stations across China during the period of 1965–2017. National and regional trends in drought and wetness and their various characteristics, including intensity, duration, frequency, and percentage of area affected, were investigated at multiple timescales. We found that (1) China as a whole has undergone a significant (p < 0.01, trend significant at the level of 0.01) wetting trend, with an annual SPEI increase of 0.5 per decade from 1965 to 2017. A seasonal wetting trend was also observed, with summer being particularly significant (p < 0.01). (2) Regionally, each subregion also showed a wetting trend during the study period except for southwest China, and these wetting trends were significant in the western region of northwest China (p < 0.05, trend significant at the level of 0.05), the Tibetan Plateau (p < 0.05), and eastern China (p = 0.06). (3) Decadal trends in drought and wetness intensity, frequency, duration, and affected areas indicated that the drought events also became more severe and more frequent in the last two decades, and the areas showing drying trends were mainly located in southwest China (especially for the autumn drought) and the southwestern parts of eastern northwest China (spring drought). Our results highlight the fact that although a wetting trend was observed in most regions of China, the frequent occurrence of severe drought in southwest China and the southwestern parts of eastern northwest China still present a considerable threat to both the environment and society. Therefore, how to effectively coordinate the allocation of regional water resources to cope with drought risk under future climate change will be particularly important.