The impact of economic and political factors on popularity in France (1981–2017)

In this article, we study a popularity function for the popularity of the French political parties (1981Q2–2017Q1). At first, we suppose that voters have a retrospective behaviour according to the reward-punishment model in a closed economy. We show that the unemployment rate has a significant influ...

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Published inFrench politics Vol. 17; no. 4; pp. 451 - 467
Main Author Auberger, Antoine
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published London Palgrave Macmillan UK 01.12.2019
Palgrave Macmillan
Subjects
Comparative Politics
Elections
European Politics
Hypotheses
Openness
Original Article
Partisanship
Political factors
Political parties
Political Science
Political Science and International Relations
Political Science and International Studies
Popularity
Punishment
Socialist parties
Unemployment
Voters
France
Economic situation
Econometric models
Popularity functions
Voters’ behaviour
Political variables
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Abstract In this article, we study a popularity function for the popularity of the French political parties (1981Q2–2017Q1). At first, we suppose that voters have a retrospective behaviour according to the reward-punishment model in a closed economy. We show that the unemployment rate has a significant influence on the popularity of the French political parties and find unfavourable results for the partisan hypothesis. The analysis also indicates that economic openness has an influence on popularity, thus a partly expected result for the asymmetry hypothesis: punishment without any reward. For the political variables, significant influence of the honeymoon effect, the second-order elections (regional or European) and the congresses of the Socialist party are also found to be significant.
AbstractList In this article, we study a popularity function for the popularity of the French political parties (1981Q2–2017Q1). At first, we suppose that voters have a retrospective behaviour according to the reward-punishment model in a closed economy. We show that the unemployment rate has a significant influence on the popularity of the French political parties and find unfavourable results for the partisan hypothesis. The analysis also indicates that economic openness has an influence on popularity, thus a partly expected result for the asymmetry hypothesis: punishment without any reward. For the political variables, significant influence of the honeymoon effect, the second-order elections (regional or European) and the congresses of the Socialist party are also found to be significant.
Author Auberger, Antoine
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Issue 4
Keywords Economic situation
Econometric models
Popularity functions
Voters’ behaviour
Political variables
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Snippet In this article, we study a popularity function for the popularity of the French political parties (1981Q2–2017Q1). At first, we suppose that voters have a...
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StartPage 451
SubjectTerms Comparative Politics
Elections
European Politics
Hypotheses
Openness
Original Article
Partisanship
Political factors
Political parties
Political Science
Political Science and International Relations
Political Science and International Studies
Popularity
Punishment
Socialist parties
Unemployment
Voters
Title The impact of economic and political factors on popularity in France (1981–2017)
URI https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s41253-019-00103-8
https://www.proquest.com/docview/2315646938
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