Predicting Future Flood Risks in the Face of Climate Change: A Frequency Analysis Perspective
The frequency analysis of maximum flows represents a direct method to predict future flood risks in the face of climate change. Thus, the correct use of the tools (probability distributions and methods of estimating their parameters) necessary to carry out such analyzes is required to avoid possible...
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Published in | Water (Basel) Vol. 15; no. 22; p. 3883 |
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Language | English |
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Abstract | The frequency analysis of maximum flows represents a direct method to predict future flood risks in the face of climate change. Thus, the correct use of the tools (probability distributions and methods of estimating their parameters) necessary to carry out such analyzes is required to avoid possible negative consequences. This article presents four probability distributions from the generalized Beta families, using the L- and LH-moments method as parameter estimation. New elements are presented regarding the applicability of Dagum, Paralogistic, Inverse Paralogistic and the four-parameter Burr distributions in the flood frequency analysis. The article represents the continuation of the research carried out in the Faculty of Hydrotechnics, being part of larger and more complex research with the aim of developing a normative regarding flood frequency analysis using these methods. According to the results obtained, among the four analyzed distributions, the Burr distribution was found to be the best fit model because the theoretical values of the statistical indicators calibrated the corresponding values of the observed data. Considering the existence of more rigorous selection criteria, it is recommended to use these methods in the frequency analysis. |
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AbstractList | The frequency analysis of maximum flows represents a direct method to predict future flood risks in the face of climate change. Thus, the correct use of the tools (probability distributions and methods of estimating their parameters) necessary to carry out such analyzes is required to avoid possible negative consequences. This article presents four probability distributions from the generalized Beta families, using the L- and LH-moments method as parameter estimation. New elements are presented regarding the applicability of Dagum, Paralogistic, Inverse Paralogistic and the four-parameter Burr distributions in the flood frequency analysis. The article represents the continuation of the research carried out in the Faculty of Hydrotechnics, being part of larger and more complex research with the aim of developing a normative regarding flood frequency analysis using these methods. According to the results obtained, among the four analyzed distributions, the Burr distribution was found to be the best fit model because the theoretical values of the statistical indicators calibrated the corresponding values of the observed data. Considering the existence of more rigorous selection criteria, it is recommended to use these methods in the frequency analysis. |
Audience | Academic |
Author | Anghel, Cristian Gabriel Ilinca, Cornel |
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Cites_doi | 10.1029/WR015i005p01049 10.3390/app13074640 10.3390/sym11040484 10.1007/s00477-007-0202-6 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9429(1988)114:1(112) 10.14419/ijet.v7i2.15.11363 10.1002/ird.91 10.31018/jans.v9i4.1539 10.1016/j.advwatres.2019.103498 10.1080/02664763.2021.1871592 10.3390/w15091732 10.3923/jas.2012.1501.1506 10.3390/stats5020019 10.3390/w15071316 10.3390/w13192688 10.3390/w13131832 10.1080/10286608.2012.749870 10.3390/w14030492 10.1007/978-94-017-1431-0 10.3390/app13053055 10.20944/preprints202303.0495.v1 10.1002/wat2.1290 10.3390/app122412588 10.1007/s00477-016-1226-6 10.3390/su15065573 10.3390/math7050406 10.1111/j.2517-6161.1990.tb01775.x 10.1029/WR014i006p01105 10.1007/s00477-007-0201-7 10.3390/e24070898 10.3390/w15112077 10.1017/CBO9780511529443 10.20944/preprints202303.0320.v1 10.1016/j.wace.2022.100533 10.1029/97WR02134 10.3390/w9090692 10.2166/wpt.2021.117 10.1029/2006WR004913 10.1007/s11269-009-9524-0 10.1080/02630259508970181 10.3390/w14182884 10.1029/98WR02364 10.3390/su11247037 10.1007/s00704-010-0330-7 |
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SubjectTerms | Case studies Distribution (Probability theory) flood frequency analysis Global temperature changes linear moments Maximum likelihood method Parameter estimation Precipitation Probability risks Rivers Skewness statistical distributions |
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Title | Predicting Future Flood Risks in the Face of Climate Change: A Frequency Analysis Perspective |
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