Selecting the best probability distribution for at-site flood frequency analysis; a study of Torne River

• Published in: SN applied sciences Vol. 1; no. 12; p. 1629
• Main Authors: Ul Hassan, Mahmood, Hayat, Omar, Noreen, Zahra
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Cham Springer International Publishing 01.12.2019; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: 2. Earth and Environmental Sciences (general); Accuracy; Applied and Technical Physics; Chemistry/Food Science; Construction; Earth Sciences; Engineering; Environment; Extreme values; Flood frequency; Flood frequency analysis; Flood predictions; Floods; Frequency analysis; Goodness of fit; Hydrology; L-moments; Materials Science; Maximum likelihood estimation; Maximum probable flood; Methods; Parameter estimation; Probability distribution; Research Article; Rivers; Statistical tests; Steam flow; Time series; Finland; L-moments; Maximum likelihood estimation; Flood frequency analysis
• DOI: 10.1007/s42452-019-1584-z
• ISSN: 2523-3963; 2523-3971

At-site flood frequency analysis is a direct method of estimation of flood frequency at a particular site. The appropriate selection of probability distribution and a parameter estimation method are important for at-site flood frequency analysis. Generalized extreme value, three-parameter log-normal, generalized logistic, Pearson type-III and Gumbel distributions have been considered to describe the annual maximum steam flow at five gauging sites of Torne River in Sweden. To estimate the parameters of distributions, maximum likelihood estimation and L-moments methods are used. The performance of these distributions is assessed based on goodness-of-fit tests and accuracy measures. At most sites, the best-fitted distributions are with LM estimation method. Finally, the most suitable distribution at each site is used to predict the maximum flood magnitude for different return periods.