Empirical analysis method for evacuation timing of ships in storm areas

• Published in: Safety science Vol. 141; p. 105323
• Main Authors: Okuzono, Junji, Saito, Yasuhiro, Tanaka, Takahiro, Nakayama, Yoshiyuki
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Amsterdam Elsevier Ltd 01.09.2021; Elsevier BV
• Subjects: Automatic identification system; Effects; Empirical analysis; Evacuation; Evacuation behavior; Evacuation timing; Evacuations & rescues; Evasive actions; Maritime safety policy; Natural disasters prevention; Ports; Preempting; Safety measures; Ships; Storm damage; Storms; Studies; Vessels; Tokyo Bay; Automatic identification system; Natural disasters prevention; Evacuation timing; Evacuation behavior; Maritime safety policy
• ISSN: 0925-7535; 1879-1042
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ssci.2021.105323

•AIS enables the automatic capture of disaster evacuation timing of ships.•Automatic captured real timing data avoids self-reporting biases.•AIS revealed evacuation had been completed before the governmental instructions.•Evacuation behavior of ships can have implication on evacuation behavior of people. Despite the frequency and risk posed by storms, few studies have been conducted on the behavior of ships taking preemptive measures to avoid damage from storms. The primary goal of this study is to propose a feasible method to analyze the dynamics of ships’ evasion of storms with automatic identification systems. In addition, to demonstrate the convenience of the proposed method, this study observed the dynamics of the evasive actions of ships over the course of ten storms for which storm alerts were issued near Tokyo Bay, and analyzed the effect of governmental instructions on evacuation timing. With this method, the study demonstrated that the ships in Tokyo Bay acted before the government issued instructions to avoid the storm. Despite research suggesting the effectiveness of government instructions and orders on the timing of human evacuation behavior, this study yielded different results. Actions by most vessels were taken before government directives. Further research is needed to determine whether this phenomenon can be applied to other ports. The primary goal of performing this simple analysis at various ports is to evaluate the administrative system related to storm avoidance orders and build a more appropriate system. Further, it may lead to studies profiling vessels that tend to underestimate risk. This will help each port manager and the company that operates the ship to formulate individual safety measures.