When Do They Stop? Modeling the Termination of War
This paper deals with war termination. We develop a formal model based on the logic of domestic political accountability. We assume that leaders seek to maximize the likelihood that they will stay in office and that their decisions regarding war termination are responsive to their winning coalition&...
Saved in:
| Published in | Conflict management and peace science Vol. 21; no. 3; pp. 179 - 193 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors | , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
London, England
Taylor & Francis, Inc
01.10.2004
SAGE Publications Sage Publications Ltd |
| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
Cover
Loading…
| Abstract | This paper deals with war termination. We develop a formal model based on the logic of domestic political accountability. We assume that leaders seek to maximize the likelihood that they will stay in office and that their decisions regarding war termination are responsive to their winning coalition's expectations and sensitivity to costs and to the costs of war. Our model generates predictions about when state leaders will prefer to terminate an ongoing war, given specific terms of settlement. By applying these results to both sides in a war, we can use the model to develop propositions regarding the terms of settlement and the duration of war given varying expectations, costs, and sensitivity to costs. |
|---|---|
| AbstractList | This paper deals with war termination. We develop a formal model based on the logic of domestic political accountability. We assume that leaders seek to maximize the likelihood that they will stay in office and that their decisions regarding war termination are responsive to their winning coalition's expectations and sensitivity to costs and to the costs of war. Our model generates predictions about when state leaders will prefer to terminate an ongoing war, given specific terms of settlement. By applying these results to both sides in a war, we can use the model to develop propositions regarding the terms of settlement and the duration of war given varying expectations, costs, and sensitivity to costs. This paper deals with war termination. We develop a formal model based on the logic of domestic political accountability. We assume that leaders seek to maximize the likelihood that they will stay in office & that their decisions regarding war termination are responsive to their winning coalition's expectations & sensitivity to costs & to the costs of war. Our model generates predictions about when state leaders will prefer to terminate an ongoing war, given specific terms of settlement. By applying these results to both sides in a war, we can use the model to develop propositions regarding the terms of settlement & the duration of war given varying expectations, costs, & sensitivity to costs. Figures, References. Adapted from the source document. |
| Author | MORGAN, T. CLIFTON MATTES, MICHAELA |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: MICHAELA surname: MATTES fullname: MATTES, MICHAELA – sequence: 2 givenname: T. CLIFTON surname: MORGAN fullname: MORGAN, T. CLIFTON |
| BookMark | eNp9kE1LAzEQhoNUsK3-AA9CQPC2dfKx-TiJ1E-oeLDS45LuJu2WNqnJ9tB_75YVBQVhYA7zvDPvvAPU88FbhM4JjAgouAbJlNIcuAauJBXkCPVJznWmKdE91D_MsxagJ2iQ0gqASqlVH9HZ0np8F_B0aff4rQnbG_wSKruu_QI3S4unNm5qb5o6eBwcnpl4io6dWSd79tWH6P3hfjp-yiavj8_j20lWMs2bjDPngArelnasrCpSOeO0EEwYJqTO9ZxX3ICVshRUAlQMlLAKKmO1mBM2RFfd3m0MHzubmmJTp9Ku18bbsEtFriVVIA_g5S9wFXbRt94KyjjjUjNFW4p0VBlDStG6YhvrjYn7gkBxyLD4k2GrGXWaZBb2Z-t_gotOsEpNiN8XaPsgy1svn1LVeS0 |
| CitedBy_id | crossref_primary_10_1080_10584609_2014_894159 crossref_primary_10_1080_03050629_2014_880699 crossref_primary_10_1177_00223433211061952 crossref_primary_10_1111_j_1468_2478_2012_00735_x crossref_primary_10_1093_isq_sqv021 crossref_primary_10_1080_14742830903234254 crossref_primary_10_1017_S0020818316000424 crossref_primary_10_1177_0022002715600758 |
| Cites_doi | 10.2307/1964127 10.1177/0022343303040001205 10.1007/978-1-349-19395-0 10.1017/S000305540300056X 10.1177/0022002798042003006 10.1080/03050629608434880 10.1177/0022002798042003005 10.1177/0022002798042003003 10.2307/2669259 10.2307/2944796 10.1177/0022002700044005001 10.1177/0022002702046004004 10.1515/9781400856442 10.1177/002200277902300408 10.1017/S0020818300033324 10.3998/mpub.14373 10.1177/0022002798042003007 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198205074.001.0001 10.2307/2585670 10.2307/3088436 10.2307/2111408 10.1177/0022002793037003007 10.2307/2082512 10.1515/9781400823956 10.2307/2082882 |
| ContentType | Journal Article |
| Copyright | Copyright © 2004 Peace Science Society (International) Copyright Sage Publications Ltd. Jul 2004 |
| Copyright_xml | – notice: Copyright © 2004 Peace Science Society (International) – notice: Copyright Sage Publications Ltd. Jul 2004 |
| DBID | AAYXX CITATION 7UB |
| DOI | 10.1080/07388940490487261 |
| DatabaseName | CrossRef Worldwide Political Science Abstracts |
| DatabaseTitle | CrossRef Worldwide Political Science Abstracts |
| DatabaseTitleList | Worldwide Political Science Abstracts Worldwide Political Science Abstracts CrossRef |
| DeliveryMethod | fulltext_linktorsrc |
| Discipline | Law |
| EISSN | 1549-9219 |
| EndPage | 193 |
| ExternalDocumentID | 10_1080_07388940490487261 10.1080_07388940490487261 26273534 |
| GroupedDBID | -TM -~X .2L 01A 0R~ 18M 1~K 29F 2DF 31S 31W 31X 4.4 54M 5GY 6J9 AABOD AADIR AADUE AAJPV AAMGE AAOYI AAPEO AAQDB AATAA AAYUO ABAWP ABBHK ABCCA ABEIX ABFXH ABJNI ABKRH ABPNF ABQKF ABQPY ABQXT ABTAH ABXSQ ABYTW ABZLS ACDXX ACFUR ACFZE ACGFO ACGFS ACHQT ACJER ACLZU ACNCT ACOFE ACOXC ACROE ACRPL ACSIQ ACTQU ACUIR ADACV ADINF ADLRE ADMHG ADRRZ ADTOS ADULT ADXPE ADYCS ADZJE AEDXQ AEOBU AESZF AEUHG AEUIJ AEVPJ AEWDL AEWHI AEXNY AFEET AFFNX AFKRG AFMOU AFQAA AGDVU AGKLV AGNWV AHHFK AHWHD AIOMO AJUZI AJWEG ALMA_UNASSIGNED_HOLDINGS ALNCK ANDLU ARTOV ASPBG AUVAJ AVWKF AYPQM AZFZN B8T B8Z BMVBW BPACV BYIEH CAG CEADM CJ0 COF CS3 DG~ DOPDO DU5 DV7 DV8 EBS EIS EJD EOH ESI FEDTE FHBDP GROUPED_SAGE_PREMIER_JOURNAL_COLLECTION H13 HVGLF HZ~ J8X JAAYA JADSL JCYGO JENOY JICEH JKQEH JLEZI JLXEF JPL JSODD JST M4V M4Z N9A O9- P.B P2P Q1R Q7P ROL S01 SA0 SCNPE SFC SGU SGV SSDHQ TDBHL TEY TFW TN5 UPT VAE ZY4 ~32 -MK .2G 09Z 31T 31V 3YN 5VS AACKU AAGGD AAKTJ AAMFR AANSI AARIX AAWLO ABRHV ABRLO ACAEP ACRYD ACUFS ADEIA ADPEE ADUKL AESMA AFKBI AFUIA AGNHF ALJHS AUTPY AWYRJ B8O B8S BDZRT CBRKF CCGJY DD0 DD~ HF~ Q7O Q7X ULY YYP ZPLXX ZPPRI AAYXX CITATION 7UB |
| ID | FETCH-LOGICAL-c394t-43ff02642649f3cdd1dfaf96636a367959b4d4a0e77c62700d3086e80dae96b13 |
| ISSN | 0738-8942 |
| IngestDate | Wed Dec 04 15:08:32 EST 2024 Tue Nov 19 04:44:44 EST 2024 Fri Dec 06 08:13:32 EST 2024 Tue Jul 16 20:43:00 EDT 2024 Wed Dec 11 00:53:12 EST 2024 |
| IsPeerReviewed | true |
| IsScholarly | true |
| Issue | 3 |
| Keywords | war termination principal/agent models domestic politics |
| Language | English |
| License | https://journals.sagepub.com/page/policies/text-and-data-mining-license |
| LinkModel | OpenURL |
| MergedId | FETCHMERGED-LOGICAL-c394t-43ff02642649f3cdd1dfaf96636a367959b4d4a0e77c62700d3086e80dae96b13 |
| Notes | ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 23 |
| PQID | 2343479382 |
| PQPubID | 2039710 |
| PageCount | 15 |
| ParticipantIDs | proquest_miscellaneous_59728071 proquest_journals_2343479382 crossref_primary_10_1080_07388940490487261 sage_journals_10_1080_07388940490487261 jstor_primary_26273534 |
| PublicationCentury | 2000 |
| PublicationDate | 20041001 |
| PublicationDateYYYYMMDD | 2004-10-01 |
| PublicationDate_xml | – month: 10 year: 2004 text: 20041001 day: 01 |
| PublicationDecade | 2000 |
| PublicationPlace | London, England |
| PublicationPlace_xml | – name: London, England – name: London |
| PublicationTitle | Conflict management and peace science |
| PublicationYear | 2004 |
| Publisher | Taylor & Francis, Inc SAGE Publications Sage Publications Ltd |
| Publisher_xml | – sequence: 0 name: Taylor & Francis, Inc – name: SAGE Publications – name: Sage Publications Ltd |
| References | Dixon, W., P.D. Senese. 2002; 46 Downs, G.W., D.M. Rocke. 1994; 38 Wittman, D. 1979; 23 Bueno de Mesquita, B., R. Siverson, G. Woller. 1992; 86 Bueno de Mesquita, B., R. Siverson. 1995; 89 Vuchinich, S., J. Teachman. 1993; 37 Wagner, H.R. 2000; 44 Bennett, S., A.C. Stam III. 1996; 90 Werner, S. 1998; 42 Filson, D., S. Werner. 2002; 46 Goemans, H.E. 2000; 44 Fearon, J.D. 1994; 88 Slantchev, B.L. 2003; 97 Smith, A. 1998; 42 Bennett, S., A.C. Stam III. 1998; 42 Fearon, J.D. 1995; 49 Werner, S. 1996; 22 Reiter, D., A.C. Stam III. 1998; 92 Reiter, D., A.C. Stam III. 1998; 42 Chan, S. 2003; 40 atypb8 Fiorina, M. (atypb14) 1981 atypb19 Hoyt, E.P. (atypb20) 1988 Trask, D.F. (atypb33) 1981 Iklé, F.C. (atypb21) 1991 atypb26 atypb27 Gelb, L.H. (atypb17) 1979 atypb29 atypb25 Kecskemeti, P. (atypb22) 1958 DeConde, A. (atypb9) 1963 Bailey, T.A. (atypb1) 1964 Savun, B. (atypb28) Leckie, R. (atypb23) 1981 Smith, J. (atypb31) 1994 atypb15 Morgan, H.W. (atypb24) 1967 atypb37 atypb38 atypb18 atypb11 atypb12 atypb34 atypb13 atypb35 atypb36 atypb30 atypb3 atypb2 atypb10 atypb32 atypb5 Gaubatz, K. (atypb16) 1998 atypb4 atypb7 atypb6 |
| References_xml | – volume: 38 start-page: 362 year: 1994 end-page: 380 article-title: Conflict, agency and gambling for resurrection: The principalagent problem goes to war publication-title: American Journal of Political Science contributor: fullname: D.M. Rocke. – volume: 44 start-page: 555 year: 2000 end-page: 579 article-title: Fighting for survival. The fate of leaders and the duration of wars publication-title: Journal of Conflict Resolution contributor: fullname: Goemans, H.E. – volume: 42 start-page: 259 year: 1998 end-page: 277 article-title: Democracy and battlefield military effectiveness publication-title: Journal of Conflict Resolution contributor: fullname: A.C. Stam III. – volume: 42 start-page: 321 year: 1998 end-page: 343 article-title: Negotiating the terms of the settlement: War aims and bargaining leverage publication-title: Journal of Conflict Resolution contributor: fullname: Werner, S. – volume: 22 start-page: 67 year: 1996 end-page: 88 article-title: Absolute and limited war: The possibility of foreign-imposed regime change publication-title: International Interaction contributor: fullname: Werner, S. – volume: 97 start-page: 123 year: 2003 end-page: 133 article-title: The power to hurt: Costly conflict with completely informed states publication-title: American Political Science Review contributor: fullname: Slantchev, B.L. – volume: 44 start-page: 469 year: 2000 end-page: 484 article-title: Bargaining and war publication-title: American Journal of Political Science contributor: fullname: Wagner, H.R. – volume: 89 start-page: 841 year: 1995 end-page: 855 article-title: War and the survival of political leaders: A comparative study of regime types and political accountability publication-title: American Political Science Review contributor: fullname: R. Siverson. – volume: 86 start-page: 638 year: 1992 end-page: 646 article-title: War and the fate of regimes: A comparative analysis publication-title: American Political Science Review contributor: fullname: G. Woller. – volume: 23 start-page: 743 year: 1979 end-page: 763 article-title: How a war ends. A rational model approach publication-title: Journal of Conflict Resolution contributor: fullname: Wittman, D. – volume: 92 start-page: 377 year: 1998 end-page: 389 article-title: Democracy, war initiation and victory publication-title: American Political Science Review contributor: fullname: A.C. Stam III. – volume: 88 start-page: 577 year: 1994 end-page: 592 article-title: Domestic political audience costs publication-title: American Political Science Review contributor: fullname: Fearon, J.D. – volume: 42 start-page: 344 year: 1998 end-page: 366 article-title: The declining advantages of democracy: A combined model of war outcomes and duration publication-title: Journal of Conflict Resolution contributor: fullname: A.C. Stam III. – volume: 46 start-page: 547 year: 2002 end-page: 571 article-title: Democracy, disputes and negotiated settlements publication-title: Journal of Conflict Resolution contributor: fullname: P.D. Senese. – volume: 40 start-page: 49 year: 2003 end-page: 66 article-title: Explaining war duration. A Boolean analysis of causes publication-title: Journal of Peace Research contributor: fullname: Chan, S. – volume: 90 start-page: 239 year: 1996 end-page: 257 article-title: The duration of interstate wars, 1816-1985 publication-title: American Political Science Review contributor: fullname: A.C. Stam III. – volume: 42 start-page: 301 year: 1998 end-page: 320 article-title: Fighting battles, winning wars publication-title: Journal of Conflict Resolution contributor: fullname: Smith, A. – volume: 46 start-page: 819 year: 2002 end-page: 838 article-title: A bargaining model of war and peace: Anticipating the onset, duration, and the outcome of war publication-title: American Journal of Political Science contributor: fullname: S. Werner. – volume: 49 start-page: 379 year: 1995 end-page: 414 article-title: Rationalist explanations for war publication-title: International Organization contributor: fullname: Fearon, J.D. – volume: 37 start-page: 544 year: 1993 end-page: 568 article-title: Influences on the duration of wars, strikes, riots and family arguments publication-title: Journal of Conflict Resolution contributor: fullname: J. Teachman. – ident: atypb6 doi: 10.2307/1964127 – ident: atypb8 doi: 10.1177/0022343303040001205 – ident: atypb5 doi: 10.1007/978-1-349-19395-0 – ident: atypb29 doi: 10.1017/S000305540300056X – volume-title: A history of American foreign policy year: 1963 ident: atypb9 contributor: fullname: DeConde, A. – volume-title: The irony of Vietnam: The system worked year: 1979 ident: atypb17 contributor: fullname: Gelb, L.H. – ident: atypb37 doi: 10.1177/0022002798042003006 – volume-title: The wars of America. Rev year: 1981 ident: atypb23 contributor: fullname: Leckie, R. – volume-title: Retrospective voting in American national elections year: 1981 ident: atypb14 contributor: fullname: Fiorina, M. – ident: atypb36 doi: 10.1080/03050629608434880 – ident: atypb30 doi: 10.1177/0022002798042003005 – volume-title: The war with Spain in 1898 year: 1981 ident: atypb33 contributor: fullname: Trask, D.F. – ident: atypb26 doi: 10.1177/0022002798042003003 – ident: atypb35 doi: 10.2307/2669259 – ident: atypb12 doi: 10.2307/2944796 – ident: atypb18 doi: 10.1177/0022002700044005001 – volume-title: America's road to empire. The war with Spain and overseas exp year: 1967 ident: atypb24 contributor: fullname: Morgan, H.W. – ident: atypb10 doi: 10.1177/0022002702046004004 – ident: atypb25 doi: 10.1515/9781400856442 – ident: atypb38 doi: 10.1177/002200277902300408 – ident: atypb13 doi: 10.1017/S0020818300033324 – ident: atypb32 doi: 10.3998/mpub.14373 – ident: atypb4 doi: 10.1177/0022002798042003007 – volume-title: A diplomatic history of the American people year: 1964 ident: atypb1 contributor: fullname: Bailey, T.A. – ident: atypb2 doi: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198205074.001.0001 – ident: atypb27 doi: 10.2307/2585670 – ident: atypb15 doi: 10.2307/3088436 – volume-title: The Spanish-American War: Conflict in the Caribbean and the Pacific 1895-1902 year: 1994 ident: atypb31 contributor: fullname: Smith, J. – volume-title: Strategic surrender: The politics of victory and defeat year: 1958 ident: atypb22 contributor: fullname: Kecskemeti, P. – ident: atypb11 doi: 10.2307/2111408 – volume-title: None dare call it reason: Domestic incentives and the politics of war and peace year: 1998 ident: atypb16 contributor: fullname: Gaubatz, K. – ident: atypb34 doi: 10.1177/0022002793037003007 – volume-title: Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association ident: atypb28 contributor: fullname: Savun, B. – volume-title: Every war must end year: 1991 ident: atypb21 contributor: fullname: Iklé, F.C. – ident: atypb7 doi: 10.2307/2082512 – ident: atypb19 doi: 10.1515/9781400823956 – ident: atypb3 doi: 10.2307/2082882 – volume-title: America's wars & military encounters from colonial times to the present year: 1988 ident: atypb20 contributor: fullname: Hoyt, E.P. |
| SSID | ssj0027798 |
| Score | 1.7063621 |
| Snippet | This paper deals with war termination. We develop a formal model based on the logic of domestic political accountability. We assume that leaders seek to... |
| SourceID | proquest crossref sage jstor |
| SourceType | Aggregation Database Publisher |
| StartPage | 179 |
| SubjectTerms | Accountability Civil wars Conflict resolution Costs Democracy Domestic politics Expectations Mathematical moments Modeling Peacetime Politicians Prediction Queens War Warfare |
| Title | When Do They Stop? Modeling the Termination of War |
| URI | https://www.jstor.org/stable/26273534 https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1080/07388940490487261 https://www.proquest.com/docview/2343479382 https://search.proquest.com/docview/59728071 |
| Volume | 21 |
| hasFullText | 1 |
| inHoldings | 1 |
| isFullTextHit | |
| isPrint | |
| link | http://utb.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/link/0/eLvHCXMwnV3db9MwELe67oUXxNdEYYAfQEigTIvtOsnTNI1VEyoDpFSUp8iJbWkSSqst1TT-eu5iO0nHh4CXqErbnOX7-XJn_-6OkJelhuGVQkdKSRMJq5MoS6WMKl6yREqs-d2yLc7l2UK8X06Xo9HRgLW0acqD6vsv80r-R6twD_SKWbL_oNnuoXADPoN-4Qoahutf6RgsaQ0uMNImbrCs9voVn7Xdzb6FJKjccV2CW_hFXQ690ROfE-I5rB3ffA120rz1L8d-z7rBPVrPsx8QfC5soOC3LaI87TrsJIiOk-Z3EgckIcfC64lFaI4SMI1p5mphHRhvLkUWZcHoeXvqMp49bvjAOMaubYx_z8auM-JPJtxzHkEaCMNzSQipmCvYvl0u-_xjMVvM50V-usx3yC5WQhRjsnv89dPnD33MnbTtkLvBh4NtLK9-W8SWa-LYqVtxx4Dq13of-T1y14cN9Nhh4D4ZmfoB2Zmr64eEIQrouxVFFFBEwRENGKCAATrAAF1ZChh4RBaz0_zkLPKdMGDNZKKJBLcWgmX0XjPLK61jbZWFSJVLxSW2i4flJtShSZJKIpVAcwhVTXqolclkGfM9Mq5XtXlMaGI0LM50mjFmhLW8TFmptGQVN4lgcTkhb8IkFGtX8KSIQx3Z2zM2IXvtNHW_ZCCdT7mYkP0wb4VfMFcF46LNW07ZhLzovgZzhmdUqjarzVUB8S3WZ4Inv8bZ7v_82zE8-bOop-ROj_V9Mm4uN-YZ-JFN-dxj5QdoFWsZ |
| link.rule.ids | 314,780,784,27924,27925 |
| linkProvider | SAGE Publications |
| openUrl | ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info%3Aofi%2Fenc%3AUTF-8&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fsummon.serialssolutions.com&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=When+Do+They+Stop%3F+Modeling+the+Termination+of+War&rft.jtitle=Conflict+management+and+peace+science&rft.au=Mattes+Michaela&rft.au=Clifton%2C+Morgan+T&rft.date=2004-10-01&rft.pub=Sage+Publications+Ltd&rft.issn=0738-8942&rft.eissn=1549-9219&rft.volume=21&rft.issue=3&rft.spage=179&rft.epage=193&rft_id=info:doi/10.1080%2F07388940490487261&rft.externalDBID=NO_FULL_TEXT |
| thumbnail_l | http://covers-cdn.summon.serialssolutions.com/index.aspx?isbn=/lc.gif&issn=0738-8942&client=summon |
| thumbnail_m | http://covers-cdn.summon.serialssolutions.com/index.aspx?isbn=/mc.gif&issn=0738-8942&client=summon |
| thumbnail_s | http://covers-cdn.summon.serialssolutions.com/index.aspx?isbn=/sc.gif&issn=0738-8942&client=summon |