Potential and Future Geographical Distribution of Eremanthus erythropappus (DC.) MacLeish: a Tree Threatened by Climate Change

ABSTRACT Eremanthus erythropappus is a commercially-important tree which has a long history of exploitation in the Brazilian State of Minas Gerais. The knowledge on the potential geographical distribution of E. erythropappus is therefore critical for the species sustainability. Thus, the aim of this...

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Published inFloresta e ambiente Vol. 26; no. 3
Main Authors Carvalho, Monica Canaan, Gomide, Lucas Rezende, Acerbi Júnior, Fausto Weimar, Tng, David
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Instituto de Florestas da Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro 2019
Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro
Subjects
candeia trees
habitat suitability
PLANT SCIENCES
random forests
candeia trees
random forests
habitat suitability
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Abstract ABSTRACT Eremanthus erythropappus is a commercially-important tree which has a long history of exploitation in the Brazilian State of Minas Gerais. The knowledge on the potential geographical distribution of E. erythropappus is therefore critical for the species sustainability. Thus, the aim of this study was to estimate and map current and future ecological niche for E. erythropappus in Minas Gerais. We used the Random Forests algorithm to model the ecological niche for current and future climates scenarios. Our predictions indicate Espinhaço, Mantiqueira, and Canastra mountain ranges as core areas of distribution and forecast drastic reductions in potential areas under all climate scenarios. Based on our results, we highlight that the continual harvesting of naturally-occurring E. erythropappus populations will not be sufficient to supply the market demand. Silviculture practices would likely serve as an economically viable and ecological sustainable alternative to harvesting natural populations.
AbstractList ABSTRACT Eremanthus erythropappus is a commercially-important tree which has a long history of exploitation in the Brazilian State of Minas Gerais. The knowledge on the potential geographical distribution of E. erythropappus is therefore critical for the species sustainability. Thus, the aim of this study was to estimate and map current and future ecological niche for E. erythropappus in Minas Gerais. We used the Random Forests algorithm to model the ecological niche for current and future climates scenarios. Our predictions indicate Espinhaço, Mantiqueira, and Canastra mountain ranges as core areas of distribution and forecast drastic reductions in potential areas under all climate scenarios. Based on our results, we highlight that the continual harvesting of naturally-occurring E. erythropappus populations will not be sufficient to supply the market demand. Silviculture practices would likely serve as an economically viable and ecological sustainable alternative to harvesting natural populations.
Author Carvalho, Monica Canaan
Tng, David
Gomide, Lucas Rezende
Acerbi Júnior, Fausto Weimar
AuthorAffiliation Instituto Federal de Educação, Ciência e Tecnologia do Sudeste de Minas Gerais
Universidade Federal de Lavras
Universidade Federal da Bahia
AuthorAffiliation_xml – name: Instituto Federal de Educação, Ciência e Tecnologia do Sudeste de Minas Gerais
– name: Universidade Federal da Bahia
– name: Universidade Federal de Lavras
Author_xml – sequence: 1
  givenname: Monica Canaan
  orcidid: 0000-0002-2335-3998
  surname: Carvalho
  fullname: Carvalho, Monica Canaan
  organization: Instituto Federal de Educação, Ciência e Tecnologia do Sudeste de Minas Gerais, Brasil
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  givenname: Lucas Rezende
  surname: Gomide
  fullname: Gomide, Lucas Rezende
  organization: Universidade Federal de Lavras, Brasil
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  givenname: Fausto Weimar
  surname: Acerbi Júnior
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  givenname: David
  surname: Tng
  fullname: Tng, David
  organization: Universidade Federal da Bahia, Brasil
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Issue 3
Keywords candeia trees
random forests
habitat suitability
Language English
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ssj0000353986
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Snippet ABSTRACT Eremanthus erythropappus is a commercially-important tree which has a long history of exploitation in the Brazilian State of Minas Gerais. The...
SourceID doaj
scielo
crossref
SourceType Open Website
Open Access Repository
Aggregation Database
SubjectTerms candeia trees
habitat suitability
PLANT SCIENCES
random forests
Title Potential and Future Geographical Distribution of Eremanthus erythropappus (DC.) MacLeish: a Tree Threatened by Climate Change
URI http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2179-80872019000300142&lng=en&tlng=en
https://doaj.org/article/4368c1f390e14a91a7bb4dc1db548f72
Volume 26
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