Estimation of project completion time using wiener random process and Bayesian structure based on expert's point of view

One of the important issues in project control is the estimation of project completion time. High accuracy in estimation can have a significant effect on project evaluation cost. Therefore, presenting a suitable method for estimation is essential. By definition, a project is a temporary work that is...

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Published inThe Journal of the Operational Research Society Vol. 70; no. 3; pp. 395 - 402
Main Authors Hajialinajar, M. T., Rahimi, H., Mosavi, M. R., Afandak, B.
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Taylor & Francis 04.03.2019
Taylor & Francis, Ltd
Subjects
Estimation of completion time
expert's point of view
ORIGINAL ARTICLES
uncertainty
Wiener random process
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ISSN0160-5682
1476-9360
DOI10.1080/01605682.2018.1441635

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Abstract One of the important issues in project control is the estimation of project completion time. High accuracy in estimation can have a significant effect on project evaluation cost. Therefore, presenting a suitable method for estimation is essential. By definition, a project is a temporary work that is done just once in order to create a specific product or service. Therefore, the structure of a project (especially long term projects) has many uncertainties. Using the Wiener random process, with regard to the updating structure of its distribution based on expert's point of view and new observation data, is a studied subject in this paper. Finally, by applying the data of a real case study, the benefits of estimation method has been shown and its results have been studied.
AbstractList One of the important issues in project control is the estimation of project completion time. High accuracy in estimation can have a significant effect on project evaluation cost. Therefore, presenting a suitable method for estimation is essential. By definition, a project is a temporary work that is done just once in order to create a specific product or service. Therefore, the structure of a project (especially long term projects) has many uncertainties. Using the Wiener random process, with regard to the updating structure of its distribution based on expert's point of view and new observation data, is a studied subject in this paper. Finally, by applying the data of a real case study, the benefits of estimation method has been shown and its results have been studied.
Author Mosavi, M. R.
Hajialinajar, M. T.
Afandak, B.
Rahimi, H.
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Snippet One of the important issues in project control is the estimation of project completion time. High accuracy in estimation can have a significant effect on...
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SubjectTerms Estimation of completion time
expert's point of view
ORIGINAL ARTICLES
uncertainty
Wiener random process
Title Estimation of project completion time using wiener random process and Bayesian structure based on expert's point of view
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Volume 70
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