Forecasting Models for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19): A Survey of the State-of-the-Art

• Published in: SN computer science Vol. 1; no. 4; p. 197
• Main Authors: Shinde, Gitanjali R., Kalamkar, Asmita B., Mahalle, Parikshit N., Dey, Nilanjan, Chaki, Jyotismita, Hassanien, Aboul Ella
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Singapore Springer Singapore 01.07.2020; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Acquired immune deficiency syndrome; AIDS; Big Data; Computer Imaging; Computer Science; Computer Systems Organization and Communication Networks; Coronaviruses; COVID-19; Data science; Data Structures and Information Theory; Decision making; Epidemics; Forecasting; Information Systems and Communication Service; Machine learning; Mathematical models; Mortality; Pandemics; Parameters; Pattern Recognition and Graphics; Software Engineering/Programming and Operating Systems; Survey; Survey Article; Viral diseases; Vision; China; COVID-19; Epidemic; Prediction; Machine learning method; Pandemic; Big data; Forecasting models
• DOI: 10.1007/s42979-020-00209-9
• ISSN: 2662-995X; 2661-8907

COVID-19 is a pandemic that has affected over 170 countries around the world. The number of infected and deceased patients has been increasing at an alarming rate in almost all the affected nations. Forecasting techniques can be inculcated thereby assisting in designing better strategies and in taking productive decisions. These techniques assess the situations of the past thereby enabling better predictions about the situation to occur in the future. These predictions might help to prepare against possible threats and consequences. Forecasting techniques play a very important role in yielding accurate predictions. This study categorizes forecasting techniques into two types, namely, stochastic theory mathematical models and data science/machine learning techniques. Data collected from various platforms also play a vital role in forecasting. In this study, two categories of datasets have been discussed, i.e., big data accessed from World Health Organization/National databases and data from a social media communication. Forecasting of a pandemic can be done based on various parameters such as the impact of environmental factors, incubation period, the impact of quarantine, age, gender and many more. These techniques and parameters used for forecasting are extensively studied in this work. However, forecasting techniques come with their own set of challenges (technical and generic). This study discusses these challenges and also provides a set of recommendations for the people who are currently fighting the global COVID-19 pandemic.