Identifying the Stance of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: A Markov-Switching Estimation Exploiting Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interdependence
In this paper, I propose an econometric technique to estimate a Markov-switching Taylor rule subject to the zero lower bound of interest rates. I show that linking the switching of the Taylor rule coefficients to the switching of the coefficients of an auxiliary uncensored Markov-switching regressio...
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| Published in | Journal of money, credit and banking Vol. 50; no. 1; pp. 115 - 154 |
|---|---|
| Main Author | |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
Columbus
Wiley Subscription Services
01.02.2018
Ohio State University Press |
| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 0022-2879 1538-4616 |
| DOI | 10.1111/jmcb.12455 |
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| Abstract | In this paper, I propose an econometric technique to estimate a Markov-switching Taylor rule subject to the zero lower bound of interest rates. I show that linking the switching of the Taylor rule coefficients to the switching of the coefficients of an auxiliary uncensored Markov-switching regression improves the identification of an otherwise unidentifiable prevalent monetary regime because of the presence of the zero lower bound. Using a Markov-switching fiscal policy rule as the auxiliary regression, I apply the estimation technique to U.S. data. Results show evidence of monetary and fiscal policy comovements, with monetary policy reacting weakly to inflation when fiscal policy is focused on real activity as opposed to debt stabilization, and vice versa. |
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| AbstractList | In this paper, I propose an econometric technique to estimate a Markov‐switching Taylor rule subject to the zero lower bound of interest rates. I show that linking the switching of the Taylor rule coefficients to the switching of the coefficients of an auxiliary uncensored Markov‐switching regression improves the identification of an otherwise unidentifiable prevalent monetary regime because of the presence of the zero lower bound. Using a Markov‐switching fiscal policy rule as the auxiliary regression, I apply the estimation technique to U.S. data. Results show evidence of monetary and fiscal policy comovements, with monetary policy reacting weakly to inflation when fiscal policy is focused on real activity as opposed to debt stabilization, and vice versa. In this paper, I propose an econometric technique to estimate a Markov-switching Taylor rule subject to the zero lower bound of interest rates. I show that linking the switching of the Taylor rule coefficients to the switching of the coefficients of an auxiliary uncensored Markov-switching regression improves the identification of an otherwise unidentifiable prevalent monetary regime because of the presence of the zero lower bound. Using a Markov-switching fiscal policy rule as the auxiliary regression, I apply the estimation technique to U.S. data. Results show evidence of monetary and fiscal policy co-movements, with monetary policy reacting weakly to inflation when fiscal policy is focused on real activity as opposed to debt stabilization, and vice versa. |
| Author | GONZALEZ-ASTUDILLO, MANUEL |
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| Cites_doi | 10.3386/w20194 10.1016/j.econlet.2012.10.011 10.1109/TIT.1954.1057460 10.1093/restud/rds032 10.17016/FEDS.2016.033 10.1097/00004424-197903000-00002 10.1017/CBO9780511754173 10.2307/1912559 10.2139/ssrn.367162 10.1162/003355300554692 10.1016/0304-4076(94)90036-1 10.1257/aer.20160186 10.1016/j.jeconom.2008.09.023 10.2139/ssrn.2348181 10.1111/j.1538-4616.2007.00047.x 10.1007/s00181-011-0492-x 10.1162/REST_a_00415 10.1126/science.171.3977.1217 10.1093/biomet/70.1.139 10.1257/000282803322655428 10.1016/j.jeconom.2011.12.005 10.1257/aer.102.3.167 10.3386/w8471 10.1111/jmcb.12300 10.2307/1907382 10.1186/cc3000 10.1257/aer.20121236 10.1016/0304-3932(91)90007-B 10.1111/jmcb.12338 |
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| Notes | The views expressed in this paper are solely the responsibility of the author and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. I thank John Roberts and Damjan Pfajfar for offering feedback on this project. Two anonymous referees also offered valuable suggestions to improve this paper. ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 14 |
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| SubjectTerms | C34 E52 E63 Economic models Fiscal policy Inflation Interdependence Interest rates Markov analysis Markov‐switching coefficients Monetary policy monetary–fiscal policy interactions Stabilization zero lower bound |
| Title | Identifying the Stance of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: A Markov-Switching Estimation Exploiting Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interdependence |
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