Goal programming and cognitive biases in decision-making

The study of cognitive biases in decision-making has largely arisen within the context of the subjective expected utility school of decision analysis. Many of the behavioural patterns that have been discovered do seem to be relevant to broader areas of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA). In this...

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Published inThe Journal of the Operational Research Society Vol. 56; no. 10; pp. 1166 - 1175
Main Author Stewart, T J
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Basingstoke Taylor & Francis 01.10.2005
Palgrave Macmillan Press
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Abstract The study of cognitive biases in decision-making has largely arisen within the context of the subjective expected utility school of decision analysis. Many of the behavioural patterns that have been discovered do seem to be relevant to broader areas of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA). In this paper, we look specifically at the judgemental inputs required in implementing goal programming (GP) models. The potential relevance of some of the known cognitive biases in this context are identified, and their impact studied by means of simulation experiments. It is found, inter alia, that biases due to anchoring and adjustment and to avoidance of sure loss can lead to substantial degradation in the performance of GP algorithms. Suggestions for practice and recommendations for follow-up research are derived from the simulation results.
AbstractList The study of cognitive biases in decision-making has largely arisen within the context of the subjective expected utility school of decision analysis. Many of the behavioural patterns that have been discovered do seem to be relevant to broader areas of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA). In this paper, we look specifically at the judgemental inputs required in implementing goal programming (GP) models. The potential relevance of some of the known cognitive biases in this context are identified, and their impact studied by means of simulation experiments. It is found, inter alia, that biases due to anchoring and adjustment and to avoidance of sure loss can lead to substantial degradation in the performance of GP algorithms. Suggestions for practice and recommendations for follow-up research are derived from the simulation results. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]
The study of cognitive biases in decision-making has largely arisen within the context of the subjective expected utility school of decision analysis. Many of the behavioural patterns that have been discovered do seem to be relevant to broader areas of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA). In this paper, we look specifically at the judgemental inputs required in implementing goal programming (GP) models. The potential relevance of some of the known cognitive biases in this context are identified, and their impact studied by means of simulation experiments. It is found, inter alia, that biases due to anchoring and adjustment and to avoidance of sure loss can lead to substantial degradation in the performance of GP algorithms. Suggestions for practice and recommendations for follow-up research are derived from the simulation results.
Author Stewart, T J
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Cites_doi 10.1002/(SICI)1099-1360(199612)5:4<301::AID-MCDA120>3.0.CO;2-Q
10.1016/0305-0548(83)90003-5
10.1057/jors.1981.76
10.1016/S0377-2217(98)00142-8
10.1007/978-1-4615-2229-4
10.1002/1520-6750(198812)35:6<719::AID-NAV3220350615>3.0.CO;2-N
10.1057/jors.1994.170
10.1007/BF02032309
10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601442
10.1007/BF01584098
10.1057/jors.1991.3
10.1126/science.7455683
10.2307/1914185
10.1016/S0377-2217(97)00317-2
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Copyright 2005 Operational Research Society Ltd
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Keywords Decision support system
Multicriteria analysis
Decision making
Cognition
Decision analysis
Expected utility
Mathematical programming
Goal programming
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References Ignizio JP (CIT0005) 2002
Schniederjans MJ (CIT0006) 1995
Keeney RL (CIT0011) 1992
CIT0021
Romero C (CIT0002) 1991
CIT0020
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Lee SM (CIT0001) 1999
Galotti K (CIT0010) 2002
Wierzbicki AP (CIT0004) 1999
Masud ASM (CIT0018) 1981; 32
Bazerman MH (CIT0012) 2002
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  doi: 10.1002/(SICI)1099-1360(199612)5:4<301::AID-MCDA120>3.0.CO;2-Q
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  volume-title: Encyclopedia of Information Systems
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    fullname: Ignizio JP
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– volume-title: Judgment in Managerial Decision Making
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    fullname: Bazerman MH
– volume-title: Multicriteria Decision Making: Advances in MCDM Models, Algorithms, Theory, and Applications
  year: 1999
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    fullname: Lee SM
– volume-title: Goal Programming: Methodology and Applications
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  doi: 10.1007/978-1-4615-2229-4
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    fullname: Schniederjans MJ
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  doi: 10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601442
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  doi: 10.1007/BF01584098
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    fullname: Galotti K
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  doi: 10.1057/jors.1991.3
– ident: CIT0020
  doi: 10.1126/science.7455683
– ident: CIT0019
  doi: 10.2307/1914185
– volume-title: Handbook of Critical Issues in Goal Programming
  year: 1991
  ident: CIT0002
  contributor:
    fullname: Romero C
– ident: CIT0003
  doi: 10.1016/S0377-2217(97)00317-2
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  year: 1976
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SubjectTerms Algorithms
Applied sciences
Cognition & reasoning
Cognitive biases
Cognitive models
decision analysis
Decision making
Decision theory. Utility theory
Exact sciences and technology
Focalism
Goal programming
Mathematical functions
Mathematical programming
Mathematical vectors
Modeling
Multiple criteria decision making
Operational research and scientific management
Operational research. Management science
Preferences
Research biases
Simulations
Studies
Theoretical Papers
Title Goal programming and cognitive biases in decision-making
URI https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601948
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