Changes in compound hot and dry day and population exposure across China under climate change
Hot and dry extremes have co‐occurred with global warming, causing worse threats than single climate extremes. We analyse the compound hot and dry day (CHDD) and population exposure (Epop) across China based on observations and 11 global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison P...
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| Published in | International Journal of Climatology Vol. 42; no. 5; pp. 2935 - 2949 |
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| Main Authors | , , , , , , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English Japanese |
| Published |
Chichester, UK
Wiley
01.04.2022
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd Wiley Subscription Services, Inc |
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| Abstract | Hot and dry extremes have co‐occurred with global warming, causing worse threats than single climate extremes. We analyse the compound hot and dry day (CHDD) and population exposure (Epop) across China based on observations and 11 global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. The bias‐corrected GCMs, particularly the two‐stage multivariate quantile mapping‐corrected ones, perform better than the raw ones in catching changes in CHDD but they all overestimate CHDD and Epop. More CHDDs occur in the southeast (SE), north (NC) and northwest (NW) China with increasing trends over regions stretching from the northeast (NE) to southwest (SW) China. Despite the declined CHDD, historical Epop has generally increased by the increased population. Future projections in the SSP5‐8.5 experiment indicate an overall increase of CHDD and Epop at 1.5°C warming and an increasing Epop to dangerous CHDD at 2°C warming. SW, NE and the Tibetan Plateau need effective measures of adaptation to reduce sufferings from CHDD under climate change.
An average increase of CHDD and population exposure is found in 1.5°C warming relative to the baseline period. SW, NE, NW and TP would experience persistent increasing trends in dangerous CHDD and Epop at 1.5 and 2°C warming levels and are therefore in urgent need of precautionary strategies to reduce sufferings from CHDD under climate change. Changes in frequency of dangerous CHDD and Epop based on the TSQM‐corrected GCMs under 1.5 and 2°C warming scenarios (a2–a3, b2–b3) relative to those (a1, b1) in the baseline period. |
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| AbstractList | Hot and dry extremes have co‐occurred with global warming, causing worse threats than single climate extremes. We analyse the compound hot and dry day (CHDD) and population exposure (Epop) across China based on observations and 11 global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. The bias‐corrected GCMs, particularly the two‐stage multivariate quantile mapping‐corrected ones, perform better than the raw ones in catching changes in CHDD but they all overestimate CHDD and Epop. More CHDDs occur in the southeast (SE), north (NC) and northwest (NW) China with increasing trends over regions stretching from the northeast (NE) to southwest (SW) China. Despite the declined CHDD, historical Epop has generally increased by the increased population. Future projections in the SSP5‐8.5 experiment indicate an overall increase of CHDD and Epop at 1.5°C warming and an increasing Epop to dangerous CHDD at 2°C warming. SW, NE and the Tibetan Plateau need effective measures of adaptation to reduce sufferings from CHDD under climate change.
An average increase of CHDD and population exposure is found in 1.5°C warming relative to the baseline period. SW, NE, NW and TP would experience persistent increasing trends in dangerous CHDD and Epop at 1.5 and 2°C warming levels and are therefore in urgent need of precautionary strategies to reduce sufferings from CHDD under climate change. Changes in frequency of dangerous CHDD and Epop based on the TSQM‐corrected GCMs under 1.5 and 2°C warming scenarios (a2–a3, b2–b3) relative to those (a1, b1) in the baseline period. Hot and dry extremes have co‐occurred with global warming, causing worse threats than single climate extremes. We analyse the compound hot and dry day (CHDD) and population exposure (Epop) across China based on observations and 11 global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. The bias‐corrected GCMs, particularly the two‐stage multivariate quantile mapping‐corrected ones, perform better than the raw ones in catching changes in CHDD but they all overestimate CHDD and Epop. More CHDDs occur in the southeast (SE), north (NC) and northwest (NW) China with increasing trends over regions stretching from the northeast (NE) to southwest (SW) China. Despite the declined CHDD, historical Epop has generally increased by the increased population. Future projections in the SSP5‐8.5 experiment indicate an overall increase of CHDD and Epop at 1.5°C warming and an increasing Epop to dangerous CHDD at 2°C warming. SW, NE and the Tibetan Plateau need effective measures of adaptation to reduce sufferings from CHDD under climate change. Hot and dry extremes have co‐occurred with global warming, causing worse threats than single climate extremes. We analyse the compound hot and dry day (CHDD) and population exposure ( E pop ) across China based on observations and 11 global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. The bias‐corrected GCMs, particularly the two‐stage multivariate quantile mapping‐corrected ones, perform better than the raw ones in catching changes in CHDD but they all overestimate CHDD and E pop . More CHDDs occur in the southeast (SE), north (NC) and northwest (NW) China with increasing trends over regions stretching from the northeast (NE) to southwest (SW) China. Despite the declined CHDD, historical E pop has generally increased by the increased population. Future projections in the SSP5‐8.5 experiment indicate an overall increase of CHDD and E pop at 1.5°C warming and an increasing E pop to dangerous CHDD at 2°C warming. SW, NE and the Tibetan Plateau need effective measures of adaptation to reduce sufferings from CHDD under climate change. |
| Author | Yao Feng Qiang Zhang Yan‐Fang Sang Fubao Sun Jie Chen Yang Wang Wenbin Liu Qiang Guo Hong Wang |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Yao orcidid: 0000-0002-4308-6743 surname: Feng fullname: Feng, Yao organization: Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences – sequence: 2 givenname: Fubao surname: Sun fullname: Sun, Fubao organization: College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences – sequence: 3 givenname: Wenbin orcidid: 0000-0002-9569-6762 surname: Liu fullname: Liu, Wenbin email: liuwb@igsnrr.ac.cn organization: College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences – sequence: 4 givenname: Jie orcidid: 0000-0001-8260-3160 surname: Chen fullname: Chen, Jie organization: Wuhan University – sequence: 5 givenname: Hong surname: Wang fullname: Wang, Hong organization: Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences – sequence: 6 givenname: Qiang surname: Guo fullname: Guo, Qiang organization: The University of Tokyo – sequence: 7 givenname: Yang surname: Wang fullname: Wang, Yang organization: China Meteorological Administration – sequence: 8 givenname: Qiang orcidid: 0000-0001-5462-4896 surname: Zhang fullname: Zhang, Qiang organization: Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University – sequence: 9 givenname: Yan‐Fang orcidid: 0000-0001-6770-9311 surname: Sang fullname: Sang, Yan‐Fang organization: Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences |
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| Copyright | 2021 Royal Meteorological Society 2022 Royal Meteorological Society |
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| Snippet | Hot and dry extremes have co‐occurred with global warming, causing worse threats than single climate extremes. We analyse the compound hot and dry day (CHDD)... |
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| SubjectTerms | bias correction Climate change Climate models Climatic analysis Climatic extremes compound hot and dry day Global climate Global climate models Global warming Intercomparison population exposure Threat evaluation |
| Title | Changes in compound hot and dry day and population exposure across China under climate change |
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