Global-scale benefit–cost analysis of coastal flood adaptation to different flood risk drivers using structural measures
Coastal flood hazard and exposure are expected to increase over the course of the 21st century, leading to increased coastal flood risk. In order to limit the increase in future risk, or even reduce coastal flood risk, adaptation is necessary. Here, we present a framework to evaluate the future bene...
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| Published in | Natural hazards and earth system sciences Vol. 20; no. 4; pp. 1025 - 1044 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors | , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
Katlenburg-Lindau
Copernicus GmbH
17.04.2020
Copernicus Publications |
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| Online Access | Get full text |
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| Abstract | Coastal flood hazard and exposure are expected to
increase over the course of the 21st century, leading to increased coastal
flood risk. In order to limit the increase in future risk, or even reduce
coastal flood risk, adaptation is necessary. Here, we present a framework to
evaluate the future benefits and costs of structural protection measures at
the global scale, which accounts for the influence of different flood risk
drivers (namely sea-level rise, subsidence, and socioeconomic change).
Globally, we find that the estimated expected annual damage (EAD) increases
by a factor of 150 between 2010 and 2080 if we assume that no adaptation
takes place. We find that 15 countries account for approximately 90 % of
this increase. We then explore four different adaptation objectives and find
that they all show high potential in cost-effectively reducing (future)
coastal flood risk at the global scale. Attributing the total costs for
optimal protection standards, we find that sea-level rise contributes the
most to the total costs of adaptation. However, the other drivers also play
an important role. The results of this study can be used to highlight
potential savings through adaptation at the global scale. |
|---|---|
| AbstractList | Coastal flood hazard and exposure are expected to
increase over the course of the 21st century, leading to increased coastal
flood risk. In order to limit the increase in future risk, or even reduce
coastal flood risk, adaptation is necessary. Here, we present a framework to
evaluate the future benefits and costs of structural protection measures at
the global scale, which accounts for the influence of different flood risk
drivers (namely sea-level rise, subsidence, and socioeconomic change).
Globally, we find that the estimated expected annual damage (EAD) increases
by a factor of 150 between 2010 and 2080 if we assume that no adaptation
takes place. We find that 15 countries account for approximately 90 % of
this increase. We then explore four different adaptation objectives and find
that they all show high potential in cost-effectively reducing (future)
coastal flood risk at the global scale. Attributing the total costs for
optimal protection standards, we find that sea-level rise contributes the
most to the total costs of adaptation. However, the other drivers also play
an important role. The results of this study can be used to highlight
potential savings through adaptation at the global scale. Coastal flood hazard and exposure are expected to increase over the course of the 21st century, leading to increased coastal flood risk. In order to limit the increase in future risk, or even reduce coastal flood risk, adaptation is necessary. Here, we present a framework to evaluate the future benefits and costs of structural protection measures at the global scale, which accounts for the influence of different flood risk drivers (namely sea-level rise, subsidence, and socioeconomic change). Globally, we find that the estimated expected annual damage (EAD) increases by a factor of 150 between 2010 and 2080 if we assume that no adaptation takes place. We find that 15 countries account for approximately 90 % of this increase. We then explore four different adaptation objectives and find that they all show high potential in cost-effectively reducing (future) coastal flood risk at the global scale. Attributing the total costs for optimal protection standards, we find that sea-level rise contributes the most to the total costs of adaptation. However, the other drivers also play an important role. The results of this study can be used to highlight potential savings through adaptation at the global scale. |
| Author | Bouwman, Arno Luo, Tianyi de Moel, Hans Diaz Loaiza, Andres Kuzma, Samantha Gebremedhin, Eskedar Eilander, Dirk Erkens, Gilles Ward, Philip J. Tiggeloven, Timothy Winsemius, Hessel C. Iceland, Charles van Huijstee, Jolien Ligtvoet, Willem |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Timothy orcidid: 0000-0002-3029-659X surname: Tiggeloven fullname: Tiggeloven, Timothy – sequence: 2 givenname: Hans surname: de Moel fullname: de Moel, Hans – sequence: 3 givenname: Hessel C. orcidid: 0000-0001-5471-172X surname: Winsemius fullname: Winsemius, Hessel C. – sequence: 4 givenname: Dirk orcidid: 0000-0002-0951-8418 surname: Eilander fullname: Eilander, Dirk – sequence: 5 givenname: Gilles surname: Erkens fullname: Erkens, Gilles – sequence: 6 givenname: Eskedar surname: Gebremedhin fullname: Gebremedhin, Eskedar – sequence: 7 givenname: Andres orcidid: 0000-0003-0300-2653 surname: Diaz Loaiza fullname: Diaz Loaiza, Andres – sequence: 8 givenname: Samantha surname: Kuzma fullname: Kuzma, Samantha – sequence: 9 givenname: Tianyi surname: Luo fullname: Luo, Tianyi – sequence: 10 givenname: Charles surname: Iceland fullname: Iceland, Charles – sequence: 11 givenname: Arno surname: Bouwman fullname: Bouwman, Arno – sequence: 12 givenname: Jolien surname: van Huijstee fullname: van Huijstee, Jolien – sequence: 13 givenname: Willem surname: Ligtvoet fullname: Ligtvoet, Willem – sequence: 14 givenname: Philip J. surname: Ward fullname: Ward, Philip J. |
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| Snippet | Coastal flood hazard and exposure are expected to
increase over the course of the 21st century, leading to increased coastal
flood risk. In order to limit the... Coastal flood hazard and exposure are expected to increase over the course of the 21st century, leading to increased coastal flood risk. In order to limit the... |
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| SubjectTerms | 21st century Adaptation Archives & records Climate change Coastal flooding Coastal hazards Cost analysis Cost benefit analysis Costs Datasets Environmental risk Flood hazards Flood risk Floods GDP Gross Domestic Product open climate campaign Paris Agreement Population Protection Risk Sea level Sea level changes Sea level rise Simulation Socioeconomic factors Tidal waves |
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| Title | Global-scale benefit–cost analysis of coastal flood adaptation to different flood risk drivers using structural measures |
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