Estimating the size of an illicit-drug-using population

This paper describes a new method for estimating the size of an illicit‐drug‐using population. It is designed to overcome certain limitations of registry‐based techniques that require both comprehensive site coverage and unique case identifiers, and which do not typically provide estimates of the nu...

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Published inStatistics in medicine Vol. 22; no. 19; pp. 2969 - 2993
Main Authors Simeone, Ronald, Holland, Lynn, Viveros-Aguilero, Roman
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Chichester, UK John Wiley & Sons, Ltd 15.10.2003
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Abstract This paper describes a new method for estimating the size of an illicit‐drug‐using population. It is designed to overcome certain limitations of registry‐based techniques that require both comprehensive site coverage and unique case identifiers, and which do not typically provide estimates of the number of drug users who are currently active. The approach involves collecting retrospective self‐report data on the careers of individuals who appear at drug treatment programmes. A model is developed that corrects for the selection bias introduced by the sampling plan, and which allows us to estimate the rate at which drug users generate treatment admission events during spells of use. The size of the drug‐using population is estimated by dividing the estimated total number of treatment admissions that are generated during some fixed interval of time by the estimated rate at which individuals generate such events. The technique is tested in a series of simulation studies which demonstrate that accurate estimates of the size of the drug using population can be obtained in this manner. Analytical expressions for confidence intervals about the population estimates are derived as part of the exercise. Limitations of the approach and other potential applications are discussed. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
AbstractList Abstract This paper describes a new method for estimating the size of an illicit‐drug‐using population. It is designed to overcome certain limitations of registry‐based techniques that require both comprehensive site coverage and unique case identifiers, and which do not typically provide estimates of the number of drug users who are currently active. The approach involves collecting retrospective self‐report data on the careers of individuals who appear at drug treatment programmes. A model is developed that corrects for the selection bias introduced by the sampling plan, and which allows us to estimate the rate at which drug users generate treatment admission events during spells of use. The size of the drug‐using population is estimated by dividing the estimated total number of treatment admissions that are generated during some fixed interval of time by the estimated rate at which individuals generate such events. The technique is tested in a series of simulation studies which demonstrate that accurate estimates of the size of the drug using population can be obtained in this manner. Analytical expressions for confidence intervals about the population estimates are derived as part of the exercise. Limitations of the approach and other potential applications are discussed. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
This paper describes a new method for estimating the size of an illicit-drug-using population. It is designed to overcome certain limitations of registry-based techniques that require both comprehensive site coverage and unique case identifiers, and which do not typically provide estimates of the number of drug users who are currently active. The approach involves collecting retrospective self-report data on the careers of individuals who appear at drug treatment programmes. A model is developed that corrects for the selection bias introduced by the sampling plan, and which allows us to estimate the rate at which drug users generate treatment admission events during spells of use. The size of the drug-using population is estimated by dividing the estimated total number of treatment admissions that are generated during some fixed interval of time by the estimated rate at which individuals generate such events. The technique is tested in a series of simulation studies which demonstrate that accurate estimates of the size of the drug using population can be obtained in this manner. Analytical expressions for confidence intervals about the population estimates are derived as part of the exercise. Limitations of the approach and other potential applications are discussed.
This paper describes a new method for estimating the size of an illicit‐drug‐using population. It is designed to overcome certain limitations of registry‐based techniques that require both comprehensive site coverage and unique case identifiers, and which do not typically provide estimates of the number of drug users who are currently active. The approach involves collecting retrospective self‐report data on the careers of individuals who appear at drug treatment programmes. A model is developed that corrects for the selection bias introduced by the sampling plan, and which allows us to estimate the rate at which drug users generate treatment admission events during spells of use. The size of the drug‐using population is estimated by dividing the estimated total number of treatment admissions that are generated during some fixed interval of time by the estimated rate at which individuals generate such events. The technique is tested in a series of simulation studies which demonstrate that accurate estimates of the size of the drug using population can be obtained in this manner. Analytical expressions for confidence intervals about the population estimates are derived as part of the exercise. Limitations of the approach and other potential applications are discussed. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Author Holland, Lynn
Viveros-Aguilero, Roman
Simeone, Ronald
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Snippet This paper describes a new method for estimating the size of an illicit‐drug‐using population. It is designed to overcome certain limitations of registry‐based...
This paper describes a new method for estimating the size of an illicit-drug-using population. It is designed to overcome certain limitations of registry-based...
Abstract This paper describes a new method for estimating the size of an illicit‐drug‐using population. It is designed to overcome certain limitations of...
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istex
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SubjectTerms Bias
Biological and medical sciences
Chicago - epidemiology
Humans
illicit drug use
Medical sciences
Models, Statistical
Patient Acceptance of Health Care - statistics & numerical data
Population Surveillance
ratio estimation
sample selection bias
simulation
Substance Abuse Treatment Centers - utilization
Substance-Related Disorders - epidemiology
Title Estimating the size of an illicit-drug-using population
URI https://api.istex.fr/ark:/67375/WNG-3JFHWD35-0/fulltext.pdf
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002%2Fsim.1528
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12973782
Volume 22
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