Climate change impacts on the potential productivity of corn and winter wheat in their primary United States growing regions
We calculate the impacts of climate effects inferred from three atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) at three levels of climate change severity associated with change in global mean temperature (GMT) of 1.0, 2.5 and 5.0 degrees C and three levels of atmospheric CO2 concentration ({CO2})-365...
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| Published in | Climatic change Vol. 41; no. 1; pp. 73 - 107 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors | , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
Dordrecht
Springer
1999
Springer Nature B.V |
| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
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| Abstract | We calculate the impacts of climate effects inferred from three atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) at three levels of climate change severity associated with change in global mean temperature (GMT) of 1.0, 2.5 and 5.0 degrees C and three levels of atmospheric CO2 concentration ({CO2})-365 (no CO2 fertilization effect), 560 and 750 ppm-on the potential production of dryland winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and corn (Zea mays L.) for primary (current) U.S. growing regions of each crop. |
|---|---|
| AbstractList | We calculate the impacts of climate effects inferred from three atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) at three levels of climate change severity associated with change in global mean temperature (GMT) of 1.0, 2.5 and 5.0 °C and three levels of atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2]) - 365 (no CO2 fertilization effect), 560 and 750 ppm - on the potential production of dryland winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and corn (Zea mays L.) for the primary (current) U.S. growing regions of each crop. This analysis is a subset of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) which has the goal of integrating the linkages and feedbacks among human activities and resulting greenhouse gas emissions, changes in atmospheric composition and resulting climate change, and impacts on terrestrial systems. A set of representative farms was designed for each of the primary production regions studied and the Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC) was used to simulate crop response to climate change. The GCMs applied were the Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS), the United Kingdom Meteorological Transient (UKTR) and the Australian Bureau of Meteorological Research Center (BMRC), each regionalized by means of a scenario generator (SCENGEN). The GISS scenarios have the least impact on corn and wheat production, reducing national potential production for corn by 6% and wheat by 7% at a GMT of 2.5 °C and no CO2 fertilization effect; the UKTR scenario had the most severe impact on wheat, reducing production by 18% under the same conditions; BMRC had the greatest negative impact on corn, reducing production by 20%. A GMT increase of 1.0°C marginally decreased corn and wheat production. Increasing GMT had a detrimental impact on both corn and wheat production, with wheat production suffering the greatest losses. Decreases for wheat production at GMT 5.0 and [CO2] = 365 ppm range from 36% for the GISS to 76% for the UKTR scenario. Increases in atmospheric [CO2] had a positive impact on both corn and wheat production. AT GMT 1.0, an increase in [CO2] to 560 ppm resulted in a net increase in corn and wheat production above baseline levels (from 18 to 29% for wheat and 2 to 5% for corn). Increases in [CO2] help to offset yield reductions at higher GMT levels; in most cases, however, these increases are not sufficient to return crop production to baseline levels. Three general circulation models were used to assess the impact of climate change on corn and winter wheat productivity within the major US growing regions. The models were set at three levels of severity and three levels of carbon dioxide fertilization. EPIC was used as the crop-growth simulator. Results show that the general circulation models projected different temperature and precipitation changes, and simulation results are presented to indicate the effects of climate-change scenario, the effects of climate-change severity, and effects of CO sub(2) concentration on farm-level yields of corn and winter wheat. None of the scenarios reduced potential crop production by more than 10% at a severity associated with a temperature increase of 1 degree C. The overall results suggest that CO sub(2) fertilization may significantly reduce the negative impacts of climate change on the two crops, especially in the earliest stages of climate change. As climate change becomes more severe, however, this fertilization effect may become less mitigative. We calculate the impacts of climate effects inferred from three atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) at three levels of climate change severity associated with change in global mean temperature (GMT) of 1.0, 2.5 and 5.0 degrees C and three levels of atmospheric CO2 concentration ({CO2})-365 (no CO2 fertilization effect), 560 and 750 ppm-on the potential production of dryland winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and corn (Zea mays L.) for primary (current) U.S. growing regions of each crop. We calculate the impacts of climate effects inferred from three atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) at three levels of climate change severity associated with change in global mean temperature (GMT) of 1.0, 2.5 and 5.0 degrees C and three levels of atmospheric CO sub(2) concentration ([CO sub(2) ])-365 (no CO sub(2) fertilization effect), 560 and 750 ppm--on the potential production of dryland winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and corn (Zea mays L.) for the primary (current) U.S. growing regions of each crop. This analysis is a subset of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) which has the goal of integrating the linkages and feedbacks among human activities and resulting greenhouse gas emissions, changes in atmospheric composition and resulting climate change, and impacts on terrestrial systems. A set of representative farms was designed for each of the primary production regions studied and the Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC) was used to simulate crop response to climate change. The GCMs applied were the Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS), the United Kingdom Meteorological Transient (UKTR) and the Australian Bureau of Meteorological Research Center (BMRC), each regionalized by means of a scenario generator (SCENGEN). The GISS scenarios have the least impact on corn and wheat production, reducing national potential production for corn by 6% and wheat by 7% at a GMT of 2.5 degrees C and no CO sub(2) fertilization effect; the UKTR scenario had the most severe impact on wheat, reducing production by 18% under the same conditions; BMRC had the greatest negative impact on corn, reducing production by 20%. A GMT increase of 1.0 degrees C marginally decreased corn and wheat production. Increasing GMT had a detrimental impact on both corn and wheat production, with wheat production suffering the greatest losses. Decreases for wheat production at GMT 5.0 and [CO sub(2) ] = 365 ppm range from 36% for the GISS to 76% for the UKTR scenario. Increases in atmospheric [CO sub(2) ] had a positive impact on both corn and wheat production. At GMT 1.0, an increase in [CO sub(2) ] to 560 ppm resulted in a net increase in corn and wheat production above baseline levels (from 18 to 29% for wheat and 2 to 5% for corn). Increases in [CO sub(2) ] help to offset yield reductions at higher GMT levels; in most cases, however, these increases are not sufficient to return crop production to baseline levels. |
| Author | ROSENBERG, N. J BROWN, R. A |
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| ContentType | Journal Article |
| Copyright | 1999 INIST-CNRS Kluwer Academic Publishers 1999 |
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| Keywords | Validation Monocotyledones Zea mays Gramineae Angiospermae Regional scope Spermatophyta Yield Simulation model Climate modification Cereal crop Triticum aestivum |
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| Snippet | We calculate the impacts of climate effects inferred from three atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) at three levels of climate change severity... Three general circulation models were used to assess the impact of climate change on corn and winter wheat productivity within the major US growing regions.... |
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| SubjectTerms | Agricultural and forest climatology and meteorology. Irrigation. Drainage Agricultural and forest meteorology Agricultural production Agriculture Agronomy. Soil science and plant productions Arid zones Atmospheric circulation Biological and medical sciences Carbon dioxide Climate Climate change Climate effects Climatic models of plant production Corn Crop production Crops Emissions Environmental impact Farm buildings Farms Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology General agronomy. Plant production General circulation models Generalities. Techniques. Climatology. Meteorology. Climatic models of plant production Global temperatures Greenhouse effect Greenhouse gases Laboratories Mathematical models Meteorological research Natural resources Primary production Productivity Regions Triticum aestivum Vegetables Wheat Winter Winter wheat Zea mays |
| Title | Climate change impacts on the potential productivity of corn and winter wheat in their primary United States growing regions |
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