Application of an Individual-Based Transmission Hazard Model for Estimation of Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness in a Household Cohort
Household cohort studies are an important design for the study of respiratory virus transmission. Inferences from these studies can be improved through the use of mechanistic models to account for household structure and risk as an alternative to traditional regression models. We adapted a previousl...
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| Published in | American journal of epidemiology Vol. 186; no. 12; pp. 1380 - 1388 |
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| Main Authors | , , , , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
United States
Oxford University Press
15.12.2017
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| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 0002-9262 1476-6256 1476-6256 |
| DOI | 10.1093/aje/kwx217 |
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| Abstract | Household cohort studies are an important design for the study of respiratory virus transmission. Inferences from these studies can be improved through the use of mechanistic models to account for household structure and risk as an alternative to traditional regression models. We adapted a previously described individual-based transmission hazard (TH) model and assessed its utility for analyzing data from a household cohort maintained in part for study of influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE). Households with ≥4 individuals, including ≥2 children <18 years of age, were enrolled and followed during the 2010-2011 influenza season. VE was estimated in both TH and Cox proportional hazards (PH) models. For each individual, TH models estimated hazards of infection from the community and each infected household contact. Influenza A(H3N2) infection was laboratory-confirmed in 58 (4%) subjects. VE estimates from both models were similarly low overall (Cox PH: 20%, 95% confidence interval: -57, 59; TH: 27%, 95% credible interval: -23, 58) and highest for children <9 years of age (Cox PH: 40%, 95% confidence interval: -49, 76; TH: 52%, 95% credible interval: 7, 75). VE estimates were robust to model choice, although the ability of the TH model to accurately describe transmission of influenza presents continued opportunity for analyses. |
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| AbstractList | Household cohort studies are an important design for the study of respiratory virus transmission. Inferences from these studies can be improved through the use of mechanistic models to account for household structure and risk as an alternative to traditional regression models. We adapted a previously described individual-based transmission hazard (TH) model and assessed its utility for analyzing data from a household cohort maintained in part for study of influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE). Households with ≥4 individuals, including ≥2 children <18 years of age, were enrolled and followed during the 2010-2011 influenza season. VE was estimated in both TH and Cox proportional hazards (PH) models. For each individual, TH models estimated hazards of infection from the community and each infected household contact. Influenza A(H3N2) infection was laboratory-confirmed in 58 (4%) subjects. VE estimates from both models were similarly low overall (Cox PH: 20%, 95% confidence interval: -57, 59; TH: 27%, 95% credible interval: -23, 58) and highest for children <9 years of age (Cox PH: 40%, 95% confidence interval: -49, 76; TH: 52%, 95% credible interval: 7, 75). VE estimates were robust to model choice, although the ability of the TH model to accurately describe transmission of influenza presents continued opportunity for analyses. Household cohort studies are an important design for the study of respiratory virus transmission. Inferences from these studies can be improved through the use of mechanistic models to account for household structure and risk as an alternative to traditional regression models. We adapted a previously described individual-based transmission hazard (TH) model and assessed its utility for analyzing data from a household cohort maintained in part for study of influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE). Households with ≥4 individuals, including ≥2 children <18 years of age, were enrolled and followed during the 2010-2011 influenza season. VE was estimated in both TH and Cox proportional hazards (PH) models. For each individual, TH models estimated hazards of infection from the community and each infected household contact. Influenza A(H3N2) infection was laboratory-confirmed in 58 (4%) subjects. VE estimates from both models were similarly low overall (Cox PH: 20%, 95% confidence interval: -57, 59; TH: 27%, 95% credible interval: -23, 58) and highest for children <9 years of age (Cox PH: 40%, 95% confidence interval: -49, 76; TH: 52%, 95% credible interval: 7, 75). VE estimates were robust to model choice, although the ability of the TH model to accurately describe transmission of influenza presents continued opportunity for analyses.Household cohort studies are an important design for the study of respiratory virus transmission. Inferences from these studies can be improved through the use of mechanistic models to account for household structure and risk as an alternative to traditional regression models. We adapted a previously described individual-based transmission hazard (TH) model and assessed its utility for analyzing data from a household cohort maintained in part for study of influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE). Households with ≥4 individuals, including ≥2 children <18 years of age, were enrolled and followed during the 2010-2011 influenza season. VE was estimated in both TH and Cox proportional hazards (PH) models. For each individual, TH models estimated hazards of infection from the community and each infected household contact. Influenza A(H3N2) infection was laboratory-confirmed in 58 (4%) subjects. VE estimates from both models were similarly low overall (Cox PH: 20%, 95% confidence interval: -57, 59; TH: 27%, 95% credible interval: -23, 58) and highest for children <9 years of age (Cox PH: 40%, 95% confidence interval: -49, 76; TH: 52%, 95% credible interval: 7, 75). VE estimates were robust to model choice, although the ability of the TH model to accurately describe transmission of influenza presents continued opportunity for analyses. Household cohort studies are an important design for the study of respiratory virus transmission. Inferences from these studies can be improved through the use of mechanistic models to account for household structure and risk as an alternative to traditional regression models. We adapted a previously described individual-based transmission hazard (TH) model and assessed its utility for analyzing data from a household cohort maintained in part for study of influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE). Households with ≥4 individuals, including ≥2 children <18 years of age, were enrolled and followed during the 2010–2011 influenza season. VE was estimated in both TH and Cox proportional hazards (PH) models. For each individual, TH models estimated hazards of infection from the community and each infected household contact. Influenza A(H3N2) infection was laboratory-confirmed in 58 (4%) subjects. VE estimates from both models were similarly low overall (Cox PH: 20%, 95% confidence interval: −57, 59; TH: 27%, 95% credible interval: −23, 58) and highest for children <9 years of age (Cox PH: 40%, 95% confidence interval: −49, 76; TH: 52%, 95% credible interval: 7, 75). VE estimates were robust to model choice, although the ability of the TH model to accurately describe transmission of influenza presents continued opportunity for analyses. |
| Author | Lee, Kyu Han Ohmit, Suzanne E Eisenberg, Marisa C Malosh, Ryan E Monto, Arnold S Petrie, Joshua G Ng, Sophia |
| AuthorAffiliation | Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan School of Public Health, Ann Arbor, Michigan |
| AuthorAffiliation_xml | – name: Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan School of Public Health, Ann Arbor, Michigan |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Joshua G surname: Petrie fullname: Petrie, Joshua G organization: Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan School of Public Health, Ann Arbor, Michigan – sequence: 2 givenname: Marisa C orcidid: 0000-0003-4221-830X surname: Eisenberg fullname: Eisenberg, Marisa C organization: Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan School of Public Health, Ann Arbor, Michigan – sequence: 3 givenname: Sophia surname: Ng fullname: Ng, Sophia organization: Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan School of Public Health, Ann Arbor, Michigan – sequence: 4 givenname: Ryan E surname: Malosh fullname: Malosh, Ryan E organization: Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan School of Public Health, Ann Arbor, Michigan – sequence: 5 givenname: Kyu Han surname: Lee fullname: Lee, Kyu Han organization: Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan School of Public Health, Ann Arbor, Michigan – sequence: 6 givenname: Suzanne E surname: Ohmit fullname: Ohmit, Suzanne E organization: Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan School of Public Health, Ann Arbor, Michigan – sequence: 7 givenname: Arnold S surname: Monto fullname: Monto, Arnold S organization: Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan School of Public Health, Ann Arbor, Michigan |
| BackLink | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28605429$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed |
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| CitedBy_id | crossref_primary_10_1093_infdis_jiae423 crossref_primary_10_1371_journal_pcbi_1008601 crossref_primary_10_1093_cid_ciab395 crossref_primary_10_1111_irv_12944 crossref_primary_10_1093_aje_kwad046 crossref_primary_10_7554_eLife_35962 crossref_primary_10_1002_sim_9181 crossref_primary_10_1097_EDE_0000000000001143 crossref_primary_10_1093_ije_dyz086 crossref_primary_10_1136_bmjopen_2018_021618 |
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| ContentType | Journal Article |
| Copyright | The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com. The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com. 2017 |
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| Keywords | influenza transmission hazard model vaccine effectiveness transmission household cohort |
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| Snippet | Household cohort studies are an important design for the study of respiratory virus transmission. Inferences from these studies can be improved through the use... |
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| SubjectTerms | Adolescent Age Factors Child Child, Preschool Cohort Studies Epidemiologic Methods Family Characteristics Female Humans Influenza A Virus, H3N2 Subtype Influenza Vaccines - administration & dosage Influenza, Human - prevention & control Influenza, Human - transmission Male Models, Theoretical Practice of Epidemiology Proportional Hazards Models |
| Title | Application of an Individual-Based Transmission Hazard Model for Estimation of Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness in a Household Cohort |
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