Who will trade bauxite with whom? Finding potential links through link prediction

• Published in: Resources policy Vol. 63; p. 101417
• Main Authors: Liu, sen, Dong, Zhiliang
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Kidlington Elsevier Ltd 01.10.2019; Elsevier Science Ltd
• Subjects: Bauxite; Bayer process; International trade; Link prediction; Links; Potential partners; Predictions; Public policy; Trade relations; Trading; Hungary; United States > US; Link prediction; International trade; Bauxite; Potential partners
• DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2019.101417
• ISSN: 0301-4207

In order to find potential links in bauxite international trade and help bauxite trading countries find new partners as well as diversify trading partners. A link prediction approach was used to find potential bauxite trade links from the perspective of the topological relationship of trade networks in various countries and trade rules. The results show that over the next five to six years, Denmark and the United States, China and Hungary; Guinea and the Netherlands, Hungary and the United States; and Australia and the United Kingdom are most likely to establish bauxite trade relations. However, Brazil and Turkey, Guyana and Hungary are the least likely to trade bauxite. The results of this study show that we can understand the potential changing trends of the international bauxite trade and provide relevant government policy recommendations for it. •A novel prediction paradigm (Link prediction) is used from the perspective of the topological relationship.•Select the optimal prediction result by comparing four mainstream algorithms.•Divide national roles to further explore trade link characteristics.•Empirical results demonstrate the effectiveness of the link prediction.