Short-term wind speed forecasting with Markov-switching model

• Published in: Applied energy Vol. 130; pp. 103 - 112
• Main Authors: Song, Zhe, Jiang, Yu, Zhang, Zijun
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Kidlington Elsevier Ltd 01.10.2014; Elsevier
• Subjects: Applied sciences; Bayesian theory; data collection; Energy; Exact sciences and technology; Forecasting; Markov chain; Natural energy; neural networks; Regime switching; statistical analysis; Time series; time series analysis; Wind energy; Wind power; wind speed; wind turbines; Markov chain; Wind power; Forecasting; Regime switching; Time series; Short term; Wind energy; Models; Electric power production; Modeling
• ISSN: 0306-2619; 1872-9118
• DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2014.05.026

•A Markov-switching model is proposed to forecast wind speed.•A Bayesian inference is introduced to estimate the parameters of the Markov-switching model.•A comparative analysis of Markov-switching model and four baseline models is presented.•The Markov-switching model is promising in wind speed for...