Government debt forecast errors and the net expenditure rule in EU countries: Undue optimism at a cost

• Published in: Journal of policy modeling Vol. 45; no. 6; pp. 1113 - 1131
• Main Authors: Cronin, David, McQuinn, Kieran
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier Inc 01.11.2023
• Subjects: EU fiscal rules; Forecast errors; Government debt; Forecast errors; EU fiscal rules; Government debt; H68; H30; H63

Against a backdrop of debt ratio targets being central to recent proposed changes to the EU fiscal rules, we examine errors in official forecasts of the General Government debt ratios and their determinants in 26 member states from 2012 to 2019 when the “six pack” rules applied. We find debt ratio o...