Ecological and Social Dynamics in Simple Models of Ecosystem Management

• Published in: Conservation ecology Vol. 3; no. 2; p. 4
• Main Authors: Carpenter, Stephen, Brock, William, Hanson, Paul
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Resilience Alliance 01.12.1999
• Subjects: adaptive agent models; adaptive management; Agricultural management; bounded rationality; ecological economics; Ecological modeling; Ecosystem models; ecosystem oscillations; Ecosystems; Environmental policy; Freshwater ecosystems; integrated models; lake eutrophication; Lentic systems; nonpoint pollution; Phosphorus; phosphorus cycles; simulation models; social-natural systems; Soil pollution; Water pollution
• DOI: 10.5751/es-00122-030204
• ISSN: 1195-5449; 1708-3087

Simulation models were developed to explore and illustrate dynamics of socioecological systems. The ecosystem is a lake subject to phosphorus pollution. Phosphorus flows from agriculture to upland soils, to surface waters, where it cycles between water and sediments. The ecosystem is multistable, and moves among domains of attraction depending on the history of pollutant inputs. The alternative states yield different economic benefits. Agents form expectations about ecosystem dynamics, markets, and/or the actions of managers, and choose levels of pollutant inputs accordingly. Agents have heterogeneous beliefs and/or access to information. Their aggregate behavior determines the total rate of pollutant input. As the ecosystem changes, agents update their beliefs and expectations about the world they co–create, and modify their actions accordingly. For a wide range of scenarios, we observe irregular oscillations among ecosystem states and patterns of agent behavior. These oscillations resemble some features of the adaptive cycle of panarchy theory.