Events in Indonesia: exploring the limits to formal tourism trends forecasting methods in complex crisis situations
The desire to know the future is as old as humanity. For the tourism industry the demand for accurate foretelling of the future course of events is a task that consumes considerable energy and is of great significance to investors. This paper examines the issue of forecasting by comparing forecasts...
Saved in:
| Published in | Tourism management (1982) Vol. 24; no. 4; pp. 475 - 487 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors | , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
Elsevier Ltd
01.08.2003
|
| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 0261-5177 1879-3193 |
| DOI | 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2 |
Cover
Loading…
| Abstract | The desire to know the future is as old as humanity. For the tourism industry the demand for accurate foretelling of the future course of events is a task that consumes considerable energy and is of great significance to investors. This paper examines the issue of forecasting by comparing forecasts of inbound tourism made prior to the political and economic crises that engulfed Indonesia from 1997 onwards with actual arrival figures. The paper finds that current methods of forecasting are not able to cope with unexpected crises and other disasters and that alternative methods need to be examined including scenarios, political risk and application of chaos theory. The paper outlines a framework for classifying shocks according to a scale of severity, probability, type of event, level of certainty and suggested forecasting tools for each scale of shock. |
|---|---|
| AbstractList | The desire to know the future is as old as humanity. For the tourism industry the demand for accurate foretelling of the future course of events is a task that consumes considerable energy and is of great significance to investors. This paper examines the issue of forecasting by comparing forecasts of inbound tourism made prior to the political and economic crises that engulfed Indonesia from 1997 onwards with actual arrival figures. The paper finds that current methods of forecasting are not able to cope with unexpected crises and other disasters and that alternative methods need to be examined including scenarios, political risk and application of chaos theory. The paper outlines a framework for classifying shocks according to a scale of severity, probability, type of event, level of certainty and suggested forecasting tools for each scale of shock. |
| Author | Faulkner, Bill Laws, Eric Prideaux, Bruce |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Bruce surname: Prideaux fullname: Prideaux, Bruce email: b.prideaux@mailbox.uq.edu.au organization: The School of Tourism and Leisure Management, The University of Queensland, 11 Salisbury Road, Ipswich, Queensland 4305, Australia – sequence: 2 givenname: Eric surname: Laws fullname: Laws, Eric email: e.laws@rgu.ac.uk organization: Hospitality and Tourism Management, The Robert Gordon University, Aberdeen, Scotland, UK, AB15 4PH – sequence: 3 givenname: Bill surname: Faulkner fullname: Faulkner, Bill organization: Centre for Tourism and Hotel Management Research, Griffith University, Gold Coast, Australia |
| BookMark | eNqFkE1LxDAQhoMouK7-BCFHPVQnSdu0ehBZ1g9Y8KCeQzadaqRNliSK_nvbKh687ClDeN6XmeeA7DrvkJBjBmcMWHn-CLxkWcGkPAF-CsBYkfEdMmOVrDPBarFLZn_IPjmI8Q0ApJRiRuLyA12K1Dp675qhN1p9QfFz0_lg3QtNr0g729sBSZ62PvS6G6b3YGNPU0DXxPEXjY5p5HtMr76Z-ozvNx1-UjOwNtJo07tO1rt4SPZa3UU8-n3n5Plm-bS4y1YPt_eL61VmhBQpw1I3gK0Ua11IEHkrcl7W-boRnLE2N8i5EXld8bxqCo2lzCtAMMDrNdcsBzEnlz-9JvgYA7bK2DStkIK2nWKgRn9q8qdGOQq4mvwpPqSLf-lNsL0OX1tzVz85HE77sBhUNBadwcYOmpJqvN3S8A1tJowU |
| CitedBy_id | crossref_primary_10_1057_palgrave_thr_6040026 crossref_primary_10_1659_MRD_JOURNAL_D_21_00051_1 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_annals_2021_103149 crossref_primary_10_1080_15313220_2021_1924921 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_tourman_2008_02_007 crossref_primary_10_1080_13504509_2016_1238021 crossref_primary_10_1080_13683500_2010_491899 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_tourman_2021_104432 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_tra_2009_11_004 crossref_primary_10_1300_J073v15n04_04 crossref_primary_10_20473_jiet_v6i1_26101 crossref_primary_10_1007_s11192_016_2016_0 crossref_primary_10_1080_13683500802140372 crossref_primary_10_1007_s40609_020_00190_4 crossref_primary_10_1080_13032917_2010_9687105 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_asoc_2014_10_022 crossref_primary_10_1080_09669582_2012_673619 crossref_primary_10_1108_TR_01_2021_0057 crossref_primary_10_1108_IJTC_01_2021_0004 crossref_primary_10_1080_19388160802711444 crossref_primary_10_1108_IJCHM_09_2020_1013 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_tourman_2007_02_012 crossref_primary_10_1108_09596111111153501 crossref_primary_10_1108_K_07_2013_0129 crossref_primary_10_17979_redma_2013_01_011_4810 crossref_primary_10_18778_0867_5856_33_2_11 crossref_primary_10_1108_IJCHM_05_2018_0423 crossref_primary_10_1177_0047287509336332 crossref_primary_10_1177_0047287513482775 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_tourman_2006_04_021 crossref_primary_10_1177_00472875221145129 crossref_primary_10_1080_10941660500135852 crossref_primary_10_1080_13683500_2017_1408574 crossref_primary_10_1108_JSM_01_2021_0017 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_tourman_2021_104307 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_jtrangeo_2009_09_003 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_tmp_2012_03_006 crossref_primary_10_1108_JCOM_12_2012_0092 crossref_primary_10_1002_jtr_2312 crossref_primary_10_3390_su151713135 crossref_primary_10_1080_10941665_2017_1319397 crossref_primary_10_1177_1356766705052574 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_jhtm_2021_01_003 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_tmp_2021_100832 crossref_primary_10_3828_idpr_2019_15 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_annals_2019_102812 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_annals_2004_07_005 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_jdmm_2012_05_003 crossref_primary_10_1300_J073v19n02_12 crossref_primary_10_2208_journalip_27_147 crossref_primary_10_3390_su12239929 crossref_primary_10_17123_atad_1087573 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_tmp_2020_100715 crossref_primary_10_1079_tourism_2020_0004 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_tourman_2015_10_008 crossref_primary_10_1177_0047287513496472 crossref_primary_10_1080_09669582_2018_1477785 crossref_primary_10_1080_02508281_2021_1881707 crossref_primary_10_3390_su12197882 crossref_primary_10_1080_13032917_2022_2097930 crossref_primary_10_1080_09669582_2020_1858304 crossref_primary_10_3917_med_205_0071 crossref_primary_10_1080_14616688_2013_864325 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_annale_2024_100163 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_tourman_2010_05_006 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_tourman_2020_104164 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_annals_2015_01_002 crossref_primary_10_1080_09669582_2012_685173 crossref_primary_10_1002_jtr_2329 crossref_primary_10_1002_jtr_859 crossref_primary_10_3727_108354221X16079839951420 crossref_primary_10_1002_jtr_2343 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_annals_2019_102803 crossref_primary_10_3390_su13126884 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_tourman_2005_06_007 crossref_primary_10_1108_WHATT_02_2021_0039 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_ijhm_2021_102988 crossref_primary_10_1080_02508281_2021_1872263 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_jdmm_2022_100731 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_enpol_2011_04_047 crossref_primary_10_1080_24721735_2024_2314940 crossref_primary_10_1177_14673584231151900 crossref_primary_10_26552_com_C_2020_1_119_127 crossref_primary_10_1080_10941660902728080 crossref_primary_10_1080_13683500802613519 crossref_primary_10_2167_jost653_0 crossref_primary_10_1080_13683500_2014_932758 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_tourman_2004_11_005 crossref_primary_10_1080_13683500_2021_1989385 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_rtbm_2014_10_014 crossref_primary_10_1177_1354816619857641 crossref_primary_10_1002_hrm_20197 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_tmp_2020_100695 crossref_primary_10_1080_13683500_2022_2085079 crossref_primary_10_1088_1755_1315_59_1_012028 crossref_primary_10_1142_S2010269012500032 crossref_primary_10_1080_02508281_2005_11081484 crossref_primary_10_1080_10941665_2015_1118395 crossref_primary_10_5604_01_3001_0014_8959 crossref_primary_10_1080_10941665_2018_1433700 crossref_primary_10_1108_TR_06_2019_0231 crossref_primary_10_1108_IJTC_06_2020_0131 crossref_primary_10_1108_JAAR_10_2014_0113 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_sepro_2011_08_049 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_jhtm_2021_08_024 crossref_primary_10_5367_000000010792278400 crossref_primary_10_1080_10941660500363694 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_tourman_2007_07_016 crossref_primary_10_1057_thr_2009_1 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_tourman_2005_07_015 crossref_primary_10_14246_irspsd_4_2_3 crossref_primary_10_1177_1096348010390816 crossref_primary_10_4236_jssm_2019_122006 crossref_primary_10_1080_13683500_2021_2023114 crossref_primary_10_1300_J073v19n02_01 crossref_primary_10_1002_jtr_2244 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_tourman_2021_104342 crossref_primary_10_1300_J073v19n02_03 crossref_primary_10_1080_13683500_2010_491900 crossref_primary_10_1080_19407963_2020_1839087 crossref_primary_10_3390_w13030292 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_jhtm_2020_06_006 crossref_primary_10_1108_IJCHM_01_2021_0123 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_jairtraman_2021_102138 crossref_primary_10_1080_10548408_2017_1421495 crossref_primary_10_1080_13629387_2014_949694 crossref_primary_10_3389_frsut_2023_1192124 crossref_primary_10_1080_10941661003687431 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_annals_2021_103182 crossref_primary_10_1080_02508281_2021_1937450 crossref_primary_10_1080_13032917_2011_653629 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_annals_2018_03_006 crossref_primary_10_1080_13683500_2021_1947992 crossref_primary_10_5141_JEFB_2009_32_1_001 crossref_primary_10_1051_shsconf_20141201064 crossref_primary_10_2167_jost643_0 crossref_primary_10_1080_19407963_2011_636923 crossref_primary_10_3390_su132212632 crossref_primary_10_1177_0047287505282946 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_annals_2020_102940 crossref_primary_10_3390_land9060186 crossref_primary_10_1080_09669582_2013_826229 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_tourman_2009_09_003 crossref_primary_10_1080_19407963_2022_2076689 crossref_primary_10_1108_ICT_09_2018_0077 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_annals_2004_04_008 crossref_primary_10_1080_01441647_2012_706836 crossref_primary_10_1177_0047287516667849 crossref_primary_10_3390_economies10060133 crossref_primary_10_1080_13683500_2013_776019 crossref_primary_10_1108_IJCHM_12_2020_1480 crossref_primary_10_3727_108354213X13645733247693 crossref_primary_10_5367_te_2014_0441 crossref_primary_10_2208_jscejipm_69_I_217 crossref_primary_10_1177_0047287509353190 crossref_primary_10_31795_baunsobed_732768 crossref_primary_10_1057_s41270_022_00191_6 crossref_primary_10_1080_14616688_2020_1762117 crossref_primary_10_1108_JTF_03_2022_0091 crossref_primary_10_5937_EKOPRE2302145P crossref_primary_10_1016_j_tourman_2012_11_006 |
| Cites_doi | 10.5367/000000001101297775 10.1177/004728758702600207 10.1016/S0261-5177(98)00012-0 10.1177/004728759903800109 10.1016/0160-7383(77)90037-8 10.1016/S0261-5177(99)00021-7 10.1080/13683509908667856 10.1080/13683509908667857 10.1016/S0261-5177(00)00048-0 10.1016/0261-5177(94)00005-U 10.1108/09653569710162406 10.1177/004728758502300402 10.1177/004728759403200408 10.1111/0272-4332.00020 10.1177/135676670000600301 10.1177/004728759803600309 |
| ContentType | Journal Article |
| Copyright | 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd |
| Copyright_xml | – notice: 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd |
| DBID | AAYXX CITATION |
| DOI | 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2 |
| DatabaseName | CrossRef |
| DatabaseTitle | CrossRef |
| DatabaseTitleList | |
| DeliveryMethod | fulltext_linktorsrc |
| Discipline | Geography Business |
| EISSN | 1879-3193 |
| EndPage | 487 |
| ExternalDocumentID | 10_1016_S0261_5177_02_00115_2 S0261517702001152 |
| GroupedDBID | --K --M .~1 0R~ 123 13V 1B1 1RT 1~. 1~5 29Q 4.4 457 4G. 5VS 7-5 71M 8P~ 9JO AABNK AACTN AAEDT AAEDW AAFJI AAIAV AAIKC AAIKJ AAKOC AALRI AAMNW AAOAW AAQFI AAQXK AAXUO AAYJJ ABFSI ABIVO ABJNI ABKBG ABMAC ABMMH ABMVD ABTAH ABXDB ABYKQ ACDAQ ACGFS ACHQT ACHRH ACNTT ACRLP ADBBV ADEZE ADHUB ADMHC ADMUD AEBSH AEKER AEULQ AFKWA AFTJW AGHFR AGJBL AGUBO AGUMN AGYEJ AHHHB AIEXJ AIKHN AITUG AJBFU AJOXV AKYCK ALEQD ALMA_UNASSIGNED_HOLDINGS AMFUW AMRAJ AOMHK ASPBG AVARZ AVWKF AXJTR AZFZN BKOJK BLXMC BNSAS CS3 DU5 E.L EBS EFJIC EFLBG EJD EO8 EO9 EP2 EP3 FDB FEDTE FGOYB FIRID FNPLU FYGXN G-2 G-Q GBLVA HLX HVGLF HZ~ IHE J1W KOM LG8 M41 MO0 N9A O-L O9- OAUVE OHT OZT P-8 P-9 P2P PC. PRBVW Q38 R2- RIG ROL RPZ SBM SCC SDF SDG SDP SES SEW SPCBC SSB SSL SSO SSZ T5K TN5 UCV WH7 WUQ XXG YK3 ZY4 ~G- AATTM AAXKI AAYWO AAYXX ABWVN ACRPL ACVFH ADCNI ADMHG ADNMO AEIPS AEUPX AFJKZ AFPUW AFXIZ AGCQF AGQPQ AGRNS AIGII AIIUN AKBMS AKRWK AKYEP ANKPU APXCP BNPGV CITATION SSH |
| ID | FETCH-LOGICAL-c373t-e6ad0ef73ba57034f342694bd3211f4ce22c3498248d5ae67480e0c029b2a1403 |
| IEDL.DBID | .~1 |
| ISSN | 0261-5177 |
| IngestDate | Tue Jul 01 02:05:04 EDT 2025 Thu Apr 24 23:02:37 EDT 2025 Fri Feb 23 02:30:51 EST 2024 |
| IsPeerReviewed | true |
| IsScholarly | true |
| Issue | 4 |
| Keywords | Asian financial crisis Scenarios Risk analysis Chaos theory Forecasting Indonesia |
| Language | English |
| License | https://www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0 |
| LinkModel | DirectLink |
| MergedId | FETCHMERGED-LOGICAL-c373t-e6ad0ef73ba57034f342694bd3211f4ce22c3498248d5ae67480e0c029b2a1403 |
| PageCount | 13 |
| ParticipantIDs | crossref_citationtrail_10_1016_S0261_5177_02_00115_2 crossref_primary_10_1016_S0261_5177_02_00115_2 elsevier_sciencedirect_doi_10_1016_S0261_5177_02_00115_2 |
| ProviderPackageCode | CITATION AAYXX |
| PublicationCentury | 2000 |
| PublicationDate | 2003-08-01 |
| PublicationDateYYYYMMDD | 2003-08-01 |
| PublicationDate_xml | – month: 08 year: 2003 text: 2003-08-01 day: 01 |
| PublicationDecade | 2000 |
| PublicationTitle | Tourism management (1982) |
| PublicationYear | 2003 |
| Publisher | Elsevier Ltd |
| Publisher_xml | – name: Elsevier Ltd |
| References | Henderson, J. C. (1999). Southeast tourism and the financial crisis: Indonesia and Thailand compared. Faulkner, Russell (BIB8) 2000 The twelfth release of the Tourism Forecasting Council, August. Richter (BIB28) 1995; 9 Tourism Forecasting Council. (2001). Turner, Witt (BIB43) 2001; 7 Calantone, Benedetto, Bojanic (BIB2) 1987; 16 World Tourism Organisation (WTO). (1999). January 22, pp. 17–29. Durschmied (BIB7) 2000 Chu (BIB3) 1998; 36 Tourism Forecasting Council. (1997b). Clements, Georgiou (BIB4) 1998; 19 (August). Canberra: Department of Industry, Science and Tourism. Laws (BIB20) 1995 20 August, p.6. Friedman (BIB13) 1999 Prideaux (BIB23) 1998 Madrid: World Tourism Organisation. , Willmott, Graham (BIB47) 2001 Prideaux, Kim (BIB24) 1999; 20 Office of National Tourism. (1998). tourism Forecasting Council, Sydney. (4), 294–203. 5:2. Prideaux (BIB26) 2002 Richter (BIB29) 1999; 38 Witt, Song (BIB48) 2001 Fink (BIB12) 1986 Tourism Forecasting Council. (1998). Forecast, 4:2. Quinn-Judge, P. (2001). The politics of mind over matter Tourism Forecasting Council. (2000). Dann (BIB6) 1977; 6 Tourism Forecasting Council. (TFC) (1999). Forecast, 5.1 Faulkner (BIB11) 2001; 22 Senge (BIB33) 1990 World Tourism Organisation (WTO). (1994). Statistics Indonesia. (2000). Selected tables, http://www.bps.go.id/statbysector/tourism (visited 7/8/2000). Uysal, Crompton (BIB44) 1985; 23 Tourism Forecasting Council. (1997a). Sealey, T. S. (Ed.) (2000). Faulkner, Valerio (BIB9) 1995; 16 Haimes, Kaplan, Lambert (BIB14) 2002; 22 Hall (BIB15) 1994 Crouch (BIB5) 1994; 32 Laws, Faulkner, Moscardo (BIB19) 1998 Sachs, J. (2002). Nature's grave warnings to our planet. van der Heijden (BIB45) 1997 Vol. XXI No 5. New York: The PRS Group. Brown (BIB1) 2000; 6 Weiner, Kahn (BIB46) 1972 Sayan, S. (2002). Globalization in an aging world Keown-McMullan (BIB18) 1997; 6 August 29, p. 6. 3:2. Prideaux (BIB25) 1999; 2 Senge (10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB33) 1990 Clements (10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB4) 1998; 19 Weiner (10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB46) 1972 Keown-McMullan (10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB18) 1997; 6 van der Heijden (10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB45) 1997 Laws (10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB20) 1995 Friedman (10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB13) 1999 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB40 Faulkner (10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB8) 2000 Prideaux (10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB26) 2002 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB41 Uysal (10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB44) 1985; 23 Durschmied (10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB7) 2000 Haimes (10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB14) 2002; 22 Laws (10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB19) 1998 Faulkner (10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB9) 1995; 16 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB31 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB32 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB37 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB38 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB35 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB17 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB39 Brown (10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB1) 2000; 6 Witt (10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB48) 2001 Hall (10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB15) 1994 Calantone (10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB2) 1987; 16 Faulkner (10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB11) 2001; 22 Prideaux (10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB24) 1999; 20 Crouch (10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB5) 1994; 32 Prideaux (10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB25) 1999; 2 Richter (10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB28) 1995; 9 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB30 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB50 Fink (10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB12) 1986 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB22 Willmott (10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB47) 2001 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB42 Chu (10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB3) 1998; 36 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB27 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB49 Turner (10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB43) 2001; 7 Dann (10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB6) 1977; 6 Prideaux (10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB23) 1998 Richter (10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB29) 1999; 38 |
| References_xml | – year: 1997 ident: BIB45 publication-title: Scenarios – start-page: 106 year: 2001 end-page: 118 ident: BIB48 article-title: Forecasting future tourism flows publication-title: Tourism and hospitality in the 21st century – reference: Statistics Indonesia. (2000). Selected tables, http://www.bps.go.id/statbysector/tourism (visited 7/8/2000). – volume: 23 start-page: 7 year: 1985 end-page: 15 ident: BIB44 article-title: An overview of approaches used to forecast tourism demand publication-title: Journal of Travel Research – volume: 6 start-page: 4 year: 1997 end-page: 10 ident: BIB18 article-title: Crisis publication-title: Disaster Prevention and Management – reference: , 5:2. – volume: 6 start-page: 184 year: 1977 end-page: 194 ident: BIB6 article-title: Anomie, ego-enhancement and tourism publication-title: Annals of Tourism Research – reference: Sealey, T. S. (Ed.) (2000). – year: 1986 ident: BIB12 publication-title: Crisis management – reference: Sachs, J. (2002). Nature's grave warnings to our planet. – reference: Office of National Tourism. (1998). – reference: , tourism Forecasting Council, Sydney. – reference: . Vol. XXI No 5. New York: The PRS Group. – reference: Tourism Forecasting Council. (2000). – reference: World Tourism Organisation (WTO). (1999). – volume: 6 start-page: 197 year: 2000 end-page: 210 ident: BIB1 article-title: Political risk and other barriers to tourism promotion in Africa publication-title: Journal of Vacation Marketing – reference: , 20 August, p.6. – reference: (4), 294–203. – year: 1999 ident: BIB13 publication-title: The Lexus and the olive tree – start-page: 328 year: 2000 end-page: 349 ident: BIB8 article-title: Turbulence, chaos and complexity in tourism systems publication-title: Tourism in the 21st century, reflections on experience – year: 1994 ident: BIB15 publication-title: Tourism and politics – volume: 2 start-page: 279 year: 1999 end-page: 293 ident: BIB25 article-title: The Asian financial crisis and the tourism industry-lessons for the future publication-title: Current Issues in Tourism – reference: , January 22, pp. 17–29. – reference: Henderson, J. C. (1999). Southeast tourism and the financial crisis: Indonesia and Thailand compared. – year: 2000 ident: BIB7 publication-title: The weather factor how nature has changed history – reference: Sayan, S. (2002). Globalization in an aging world, – reference: Tourism Forecasting Council. (1998). Forecast, 4:2. – volume: 7 start-page: 135 year: 2001 end-page: 148 ident: BIB43 article-title: Forecasting tourism using univariate and multivariate structural time series models publication-title: Tourism Economics – volume: 22 start-page: 383 year: 2002 end-page: 397 ident: BIB14 article-title: Risk filtering, ranking, and management framework using hierarchical holographic modelling publication-title: Risk Analysis – reference: , – volume: 19 start-page: 283 year: 1998 end-page: 288 ident: BIB4 article-title: The impact of political instability on a fragile tourism product publication-title: Tourism Management – volume: 38 start-page: 41 year: 1999 end-page: 45 ident: BIB29 article-title: After political turmoil publication-title: Journal of Travel Research – reference: , 3:2. – reference: World Tourism Organisation (WTO). (1994). – reference: , August 29, p. 6. – reference: Tourism Forecasting Council. (TFC) (1999). Forecast, 5.1 – volume: 36 start-page: 79 year: 1998 end-page: 84 ident: BIB3 article-title: Forecasting tourist arrivals, non linear sine wave or ARIMA? publication-title: Journal of Travel Research – volume: 20 start-page: 523 year: 1999 end-page: 532 ident: BIB24 article-title: Bilateral tourism imbalance—is there a cause for concern publication-title: Tourism Management – reference: Tourism Forecasting Council. (2001). – start-page: 21 year: 1972 ident: BIB46 publication-title: Crisis and arms control, International crises: insights from behaviour research – volume: 16 start-page: 28 year: 1987 end-page: 39 ident: BIB2 article-title: A comprehensive review of tourism forecasting literature publication-title: Journal of Travel Research – volume: 16 start-page: 29 year: 1995 end-page: 37 ident: BIB9 article-title: An integrative approach to tourism demand forecasting publication-title: Tourism Management – reference: Tourism Forecasting Council. (1997b). – year: 1990 ident: BIB33 publication-title: The fifth principle – reference: Tourism Forecasting Council. (1997a). – reference: . Madrid: World Tourism Organisation. – year: 1998 ident: BIB19 publication-title: Embracing and managing change in tourism – volume: 22 start-page: 135 year: 2001 end-page: 147 ident: BIB11 article-title: Towards a framework for tourism disaster management publication-title: Tourism Management – start-page: 29 year: 2001 end-page: 38 ident: BIB47 article-title: The world of today and tomorrow publication-title: Tourism and hospitality in the 21st century – volume: 32 start-page: 41 year: 1994 end-page: 52 ident: BIB5 article-title: The study of international tourism demand publication-title: Journal of Travel Research – reference: (August). Canberra: Department of Industry, Science and Tourism. – reference: Quinn-Judge, P. (2001). The politics of mind over matter, – start-page: 317 year: 2002 end-page: 339 ident: BIB26 article-title: The Cybertourist publication-title: The tourist as a metaphor of the social world – year: 1995 ident: BIB20 publication-title: Tourist destination management – start-page: 15 year: 1998 end-page: 29 ident: BIB23 article-title: The impact of the Asian financial crisis on bilateral Indonesian–Australian tourism publication-title: Pariwisata Indonesia Menuju Keputusan Yang Lebih Baik Vol. 2 – volume: 9 start-page: 33 year: 1995 end-page: 64 ident: BIB28 article-title: Philippine land reform and tourism development under Marcos, Aquino and Ramos publication-title: Crossroads – reference: , The twelfth release of the Tourism Forecasting Council, August. – year: 2000 ident: 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB7 – ident: 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB27 – year: 1990 ident: 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB33 – volume: 7 start-page: 135 issue: 2 year: 2001 ident: 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB43 article-title: Forecasting tourism using univariate and multivariate structural time series models publication-title: Tourism Economics doi: 10.5367/000000001101297775 – volume: 16 start-page: 28 issue: 3 year: 1987 ident: 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB2 article-title: A comprehensive review of tourism forecasting literature publication-title: Journal of Travel Research doi: 10.1177/004728758702600207 – volume: 19 start-page: 283 issue: 3 year: 1998 ident: 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB4 article-title: The impact of political instability on a fragile tourism product publication-title: Tourism Management doi: 10.1016/S0261-5177(98)00012-0 – start-page: 106 year: 2001 ident: 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB48 article-title: Forecasting future tourism flows – volume: 38 start-page: 41 year: 1999 ident: 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB29 article-title: After political turmoil publication-title: Journal of Travel Research doi: 10.1177/004728759903800109 – ident: 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB35 – ident: 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB31 – ident: 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB50 – volume: 6 start-page: 184 issue: 4 year: 1977 ident: 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB6 article-title: Anomie, ego-enhancement and tourism publication-title: Annals of Tourism Research doi: 10.1016/0160-7383(77)90037-8 – start-page: 15 year: 1998 ident: 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB23 article-title: The impact of the Asian financial crisis on bilateral Indonesian–Australian tourism – ident: 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB37 – ident: 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB39 – volume: 20 start-page: 523 issue: 4 year: 1999 ident: 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB24 article-title: Bilateral tourism imbalance—is there a cause for concern publication-title: Tourism Management doi: 10.1016/S0261-5177(99)00021-7 – volume: 2 start-page: 279 issue: 4 year: 1999 ident: 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB25 article-title: The Asian financial crisis and the tourism industry-lessons for the future publication-title: Current Issues in Tourism doi: 10.1080/13683509908667856 – volume: 9 start-page: 33 issue: 1 year: 1995 ident: 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB28 article-title: Philippine land reform and tourism development under Marcos, Aquino and Ramos publication-title: Crossroads – ident: 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB17 doi: 10.1080/13683509908667857 – volume: 22 start-page: 135 year: 2001 ident: 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB11 article-title: Towards a framework for tourism disaster management publication-title: Tourism Management doi: 10.1016/S0261-5177(00)00048-0 – ident: 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB42 – start-page: 29 year: 2001 ident: 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB47 article-title: The world of today and tomorrow – year: 1997 ident: 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB45 – ident: 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB40 – volume: 16 start-page: 29 issue: 1 year: 1995 ident: 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB9 article-title: An integrative approach to tourism demand forecasting publication-title: Tourism Management doi: 10.1016/0261-5177(94)00005-U – ident: 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB49 – volume: 6 start-page: 4 issue: 1 year: 1997 ident: 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB18 article-title: Crisis publication-title: Disaster Prevention and Management doi: 10.1108/09653569710162406 – volume: 23 start-page: 7 issue: 2 year: 1985 ident: 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB44 article-title: An overview of approaches used to forecast tourism demand publication-title: Journal of Travel Research doi: 10.1177/004728758502300402 – volume: 32 start-page: 41 year: 1994 ident: 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB5 article-title: The study of international tourism demand publication-title: Journal of Travel Research doi: 10.1177/004728759403200408 – start-page: 328 year: 2000 ident: 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB8 article-title: Turbulence, chaos and complexity in tourism systems – year: 1986 ident: 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB12 – volume: 22 start-page: 383 issue: 2 year: 2002 ident: 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB14 article-title: Risk filtering, ranking, and management framework using hierarchical holographic modelling publication-title: Risk Analysis doi: 10.1111/0272-4332.00020 – ident: 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB30 – year: 1998 ident: 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB19 – year: 1994 ident: 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB15 – ident: 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB32 – ident: 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB38 – year: 1999 ident: 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB13 – volume: 6 start-page: 197 issue: 3 year: 2000 ident: 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB1 article-title: Political risk and other barriers to tourism promotion in Africa publication-title: Journal of Vacation Marketing doi: 10.1177/135676670000600301 – volume: 36 start-page: 79 issue: 3 year: 1998 ident: 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB3 article-title: Forecasting tourist arrivals, non linear sine wave or ARIMA? publication-title: Journal of Travel Research doi: 10.1177/004728759803600309 – start-page: 21 year: 1972 ident: 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB46 – year: 1995 ident: 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB20 – ident: 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB22 – start-page: 317 year: 2002 ident: 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB26 article-title: The Cybertourist – ident: 10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2_BIB41 |
| SSID | ssj0007773 |
| Score | 2.1750553 |
| Snippet | The desire to know the future is as old as humanity. For the tourism industry the demand for accurate foretelling of the future course of events is a task that... |
| SourceID | crossref elsevier |
| SourceType | Enrichment Source Index Database Publisher |
| StartPage | 475 |
| SubjectTerms | Asian financial crisis Chaos theory Forecasting Indonesia Risk analysis Scenarios |
| Title | Events in Indonesia: exploring the limits to formal tourism trends forecasting methods in complex crisis situations |
| URI | https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00115-2 |
| Volume | 24 |
| hasFullText | 1 |
| inHoldings | 1 |
| isFullTextHit | |
| isPrint | |
| link | http://utb.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/link/0/eLvHCXMwnV3NS8MwFA9jgnoRnYrzY-TgQQ_dsjRtWm9jbGwOd1CHu5U0TbEw5jAV9OLfbl7aOgVR8NQS-h5tGt5H8nu_h9C5CoLQD1LpJMSVDiwKJ-4K4iTd2CQbqeAyhg39m6k_mrHruTevoX5VCwOwytL2FzbdWutypFPOZmeVZZ07yB68LueE2rgG7DBjHPjz2-9rmAfnxSkz7LPA0-sqnkKDHbwg9NIqcejP_umLzxnuop0yWMS94n32UE0tG2izwqo30FbZwvzxbR_pASAXNc6WeAwdOpTOxBVWFcQOm0APL6CaSeP8CdtQdWHuLIcgzi0yFkaVFBqQ0LhoLW31Wdi5esXGwOhMY53lBT-4PkCz4eC-P3LKjgqOdLmbO8oXCVEpd2MBzFssdW0la5y4Jg9MmVSUSpeFAWVB4gkFjUiIIpLQMKYCmP0OUX1pvuAIYSMTiDB1aeBxk-KZyMKTLCFdQUNfcpE2EavmMZIl3Th0vVhEa1yZmf7Is2Tj1GLrvIg2UftTbFXwbfwlEFQ_Kfq2cCLjE34XPf6_6Anatqg-iwQ8RfX8-UWdmegkj1t2-bXQRm88GU3hOrl9mHwAyh3f4Q |
| linkProvider | Elsevier |
| linkToHtml | http://utb.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/link/0/eLvHCXMwnV3dS8MwEA-ygfNFdCrOzzz4oA91WfqR1LcxNjr38eIGeytpmmJhzGEq6H9vkqabgij4Vg4utJfjcpf-7ncA3AhKw4Bm3EmRyx3tFE7SYchJO4kqNjJGeKIv9CfTIJp7jwt_sQN6VS-MhlXa2F_GdBOtraRtrdle53n7SVcPfocQhE1eo-JwXbNTKWevd4ejaLoJyISUP5r1VYtW2DbylIsY4S3Cd2YdB_98RH05dgYHYN_mi7BbvtIh2BGrJtit4OpN0LBTzJ8_joDsa_CihPkKDvWQDiFz9gBFhbKDKteDS93QJGHxAk22ulRPhkYQFgYcq6WCM6nB0LCcLm3WM8hz8Q5VjJG5hDIvSopweQzmg_6sFzl2qILDXeIWjghYikRG3IRp8i0vc00za5K6qhTMPC4w5q4XUuzR1GdCzyJBAnGEwwQzTe53Amor9QWnACodysLMxdQnqspTyYXPvRR1GA4DTljWAl5lx5hbxnE9-GIZb6Flyvyxb_jGsYHX-TFugfuN2rqk3PhLgVabFH_znVgdC7-rnv1f9Ro0otlkHI-H09E52DMgPwMMvAC14vVNXKpkpUiurDN-AohX4O8 |
| openUrl | ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info%3Aofi%2Fenc%3AUTF-8&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fsummon.serialssolutions.com&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Events+in+Indonesia%3A+exploring+the+limits+to+formal+tourism+trends+forecasting+methods+in+complex+crisis+situations&rft.jtitle=Tourism+management+%281982%29&rft.au=Prideaux%2C+Bruce&rft.au=Laws%2C+Eric&rft.au=Faulkner%2C+Bill&rft.date=2003-08-01&rft.issn=0261-5177&rft.volume=24&rft.issue=4&rft.spage=475&rft.epage=487&rft_id=info:doi/10.1016%2FS0261-5177%2802%2900115-2&rft.externalDBID=n%2Fa&rft.externalDocID=10_1016_S0261_5177_02_00115_2 |
| thumbnail_l | http://covers-cdn.summon.serialssolutions.com/index.aspx?isbn=/lc.gif&issn=0261-5177&client=summon |
| thumbnail_m | http://covers-cdn.summon.serialssolutions.com/index.aspx?isbn=/mc.gif&issn=0261-5177&client=summon |
| thumbnail_s | http://covers-cdn.summon.serialssolutions.com/index.aspx?isbn=/sc.gif&issn=0261-5177&client=summon |