The global distribution of Bacillus anthracis and associated anthrax risk to humans, livestock and wildlife

Bacillus anthracis is a spore-forming, Gram-positive bacterium responsible for anthrax, an acute infection that most significantly affects grazing livestock and wild ungulates, but also poses a threat to human health. The geographic extent of B. anthracis is poorly understood, despite multi-decade r...

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Published inNature microbiology Vol. 4; no. 8; pp. 1337 - 1343
Main Authors Carlson, Colin J, Kracalik, Ian T, Ross, Noam, Alexander, Kathleen A, Hugh-Jones, Martin E, Fegan, Mark, Elkin, Brett T, Epp, Tasha, Shury, Todd K, Zhang, Wenyi, Bagirova, Mehriban, Getz, Wayne M, Blackburn, Jason K
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published England Nature Publishing Group 01.08.2019
Subjects
Animal Diseases - epidemiology
Animals
Animals, Wild - microbiology
Anthrax
Anthrax - epidemiology
Anthrax - microbiology
Anthrax - veterinary
Bacillus anthracis
Bacillus anthracis - physiology
Disease Outbreaks
Environmental Microbiology
Geography
Humans
Livestock
Livestock - microbiology
Models, Biological
Occupational exposure
Outbreaks
Public Health
Risk Assessment
Risk Factors
Ungulates
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Summary:Bacillus anthracis is a spore-forming, Gram-positive bacterium responsible for anthrax, an acute infection that most significantly affects grazing livestock and wild ungulates, but also poses a threat to human health. The geographic extent of B. anthracis is poorly understood, despite multi-decade research on anthrax epizootic and epidemic dynamics; many countries have limited or inadequate surveillance systems, even within known endemic regions. Here, we compile a global occurrence dataset of human, livestock and wildlife anthrax outbreaks. With these records, we use boosted regression trees to produce a map of the global distribution of B. anthracis as a proxy for anthrax risk. We estimate that 1.83 billion people (95% credible interval (CI): 0.59-4.16 billion) live within regions of anthrax risk, but most of that population faces little occupational exposure. More informatively, a global total of 63.8 million poor livestock keepers (95% CI: 17.5-168.6 million) and 1.1 billion livestock (95% CI: 0.4-2.3 billion) live within vulnerable regions. Human and livestock vulnerability are both concentrated in rural rainfed systems throughout arid and temperate land across Eurasia, Africa and North America. We conclude by mapping where anthrax risk could disrupt sensitive conservation efforts for wild ungulates that coincide with anthrax-prone landscapes.
ISSN:2058-5276
2058-5276
DOI:10.1038/s41564-019-0435-4