Future Hurricanes Will Increase Palm Abundance and Decrease Aboveground Biomass in a Tropical Forest

• Published in: Geophysical research letters Vol. 49; no. 19
• Main Authors: Zhang, Jiaying, Bras, Rafael L., Longo, Marcos, Scalley, Tamara Heartsill
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Washington John Wiley & Sons, Inc 16.10.2022; American Geophysical Union (AGU)
• Subjects: Biological fertilization; Biomass; Carbon; Carbon dioxide; Carbon dioxide concentration; Climate; Climate and vegetation; Climate change; Climate effects; Climate models; Climate prediction; Climatic conditions; Composition; Demography; Disturbances; Dominance; ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Fertilization; Forest damage; Forest ecosystems; Forests; hurricane disturbance; Hurricanes; Intercomparison; Luquillo Experimental Forest; palm; Recovery; Stocks; Tropical climates; tropical forest; Tropical forests; vegetation dynamics modeling
• DOI: 10.1029/2022GL100090
• ISSN: 0094-8276

Hurricanes are expected to intensify throughout the 21st century, yet the impact of frequent major hurricanes on tropical ecosystems remains unknown. To investigate tropical forest damage and recovery under different hurricane regimes, we generate a suite of scenarios based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 climate projections and increased hurricane recurrence and intensity for the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico. We then use the Ecosystem Demography model to predict changes in carbon stocks, forest structure and composition. Our results indicate that frequent hurricane disturbances in the future would decrease the overall aboveground biomass, decrease the dominance of late‐successional species, but increase the dominance of palm species. Warmer climates with increased CO2 would have little effect on the functional‐type composition but increase the aboveground biomass. However, the predicted climate and CO2 fertilization effects would not compensate for the biomass loss due to more frequent severe‐hurricane disturbances. Plain Language Summary Tropical forests are subject to hurricane disturbances. The recovery of forests from hurricane disturbances is affected by both the hurricane events and the climate conditions (such as the CO2 concentration and temperature). Climate change will lead to warmer climate conditions and higher frequency and intensity of hurricane events over tropical areas. To study the effect of climate conditions and hurricane events on tropical forests under the changing climate, we simulated the responses of a tropical forest to different climate and hurricane scenarios using a vegetation dynamics model. Our simulation results show that frequent and intense hurricane events in the future will lead to carbon loss, which will not be compensated by carbon gain resulting from a warmer and higher‐CO2 climate. Key Points Future hurricanes will alter forest composition and decrease aboveground biomass accumulation Predicted temperature and CO2 changes will have smaller effects on forest composition than future hurricane disturbances Predicted temperature and CO2 changes cannot compensate for the biomass loss due to intense and frequent hurricane disturbances