Fiscal space and the procyclicality of fiscal policy: The case for making hay while the sun shines
Utilizing data from 133 countries over the period 1950–2014, we identify fiscal space as a key factor underlying the cyclicality of fiscal policies. We find that less fiscal space induces greater fiscal procyclicality and show that this relationship is nonlinear; countries in the bottom tail of the...
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Published in | Economic inquiry Vol. 59; no. 4; pp. 1687 - 1701 |
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Main Authors | , , |
Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
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Western Economic Association
01.10.2021
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Abstract | Utilizing data from 133 countries over the period 1950–2014, we identify fiscal space as a key factor underlying the cyclicality of fiscal policies. We find that less fiscal space induces greater fiscal procyclicality and show that this relationship is nonlinear; countries in the bottom tail of the fiscal space distribution need to make significant improvements before they can perform countercyclical policy. Given the increasingly dominant role of fiscal action in downturns, as is highlighted during the Covid‐19 crisis, these findings clearly indicate the importance of building fiscal space in good times to provide capacity for countercyclical policy in bad times. |
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AbstractList | Abstract
Utilizing data from 133 countries over the period 1950–2014, we identify fiscal space as a key factor underlying the cyclicality of fiscal policies. We find that less fiscal space induces greater fiscal procyclicality and show that this relationship is nonlinear; countries in the bottom tail of the fiscal space distribution need to make significant improvements before they can perform countercyclical policy. Given the increasingly dominant role of fiscal action in downturns, as is highlighted during the Covid‐19 crisis, these findings clearly indicate the importance of building fiscal space in good times to provide capacity for countercyclical policy in bad times. Utilizing data from 133 countries over the period 1950–2014, we identify fiscal space as a key factor underlying the cyclicality of fiscal policies. We find that less fiscal space induces greater fiscal procyclicality and show that this relationship is nonlinear; countries in the bottom tail of the fiscal space distribution need to make significant improvements before they can perform countercyclical policy. Given the increasingly dominant role of fiscal action in downturns, as is highlighted during the Covid‐19 crisis, these findings clearly indicate the importance of building fiscal space in good times to provide capacity for countercyclical policy in bad times. |
Author | McManus, Richard Ahmad, Asif Ozkan, F. Gulcin |
Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Asif surname: Ahmad fullname: Ahmad, Asif organization: University of York – sequence: 2 givenname: Richard surname: McManus fullname: McManus, Richard organization: Canterbury Christ Church University – sequence: 3 givenname: F. Gulcin surname: Ozkan fullname: Ozkan, F. Gulcin email: gulcin.ozkan@kcl.ac.uk organization: King's College London |
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Cites_doi | 10.1111/j.1475-5890.2015.12044.x 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2012.07.001 10.1093/icc/11.2.355 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2004.07.002 10.1257/pol.20120218 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2013.07.012 10.3386/w14191 10.2307/2297968 10.1162/JEEA.2008.6.5.1006 10.1257/jep.14.3.21 10.7208/chicago/9780226018584.003.0003 10.1086/ma.19.3585327 10.1086/250038 10.1257/aer.103.3.141 10.1086/260807 10.1111/0022-1082.00494 10.1111/1468-2362.00109 10.1093/jae/ejm029 10.3386/w25768 10.1596/1813-9450-8157 10.1111/ecca.12258 10.1086/654320 10.1162/rest_a_00706 10.1162/rest.91.4.850 10.1086/659312 10.1111/ecca.12340 10.1257/aer.89.1.22 |
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Copyright | 2021 The Authors. Economic Inquiry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Western Economic Association International. 2021. This article is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License. |
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Snippet | Utilizing data from 133 countries over the period 1950–2014, we identify fiscal space as a key factor underlying the cyclicality of fiscal policies. We find... Abstract Utilizing data from 133 countries over the period 1950–2014, we identify fiscal space as a key factor underlying the cyclicality of fiscal policies.... |
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SubjectTerms | COVID-19 fiscal cyclicality Fiscal policy fiscal space recession |
Title | Fiscal space and the procyclicality of fiscal policy: The case for making hay while the sun shines |
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