Fiscal space and the procyclicality of fiscal policy: The case for making hay while the sun shines

Utilizing data from 133 countries over the period 1950–2014, we identify fiscal space as a key factor underlying the cyclicality of fiscal policies. We find that less fiscal space induces greater fiscal procyclicality and show that this relationship is nonlinear; countries in the bottom tail of the...

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Published inEconomic inquiry Vol. 59; no. 4; pp. 1687 - 1701
Main Authors Ahmad, Asif, McManus, Richard, Ozkan, F. Gulcin
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Huntington Beach Western Economic Association 01.10.2021
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Abstract Utilizing data from 133 countries over the period 1950–2014, we identify fiscal space as a key factor underlying the cyclicality of fiscal policies. We find that less fiscal space induces greater fiscal procyclicality and show that this relationship is nonlinear; countries in the bottom tail of the fiscal space distribution need to make significant improvements before they can perform countercyclical policy. Given the increasingly dominant role of fiscal action in downturns, as is highlighted during the Covid‐19 crisis, these findings clearly indicate the importance of building fiscal space in good times to provide capacity for countercyclical policy in bad times.
AbstractList Abstract Utilizing data from 133 countries over the period 1950–2014, we identify fiscal space as a key factor underlying the cyclicality of fiscal policies. We find that less fiscal space induces greater fiscal procyclicality and show that this relationship is nonlinear; countries in the bottom tail of the fiscal space distribution need to make significant improvements before they can perform countercyclical policy. Given the increasingly dominant role of fiscal action in downturns, as is highlighted during the Covid‐19 crisis, these findings clearly indicate the importance of building fiscal space in good times to provide capacity for countercyclical policy in bad times.
Utilizing data from 133 countries over the period 1950–2014, we identify fiscal space as a key factor underlying the cyclicality of fiscal policies. We find that less fiscal space induces greater fiscal procyclicality and show that this relationship is nonlinear; countries in the bottom tail of the fiscal space distribution need to make significant improvements before they can perform countercyclical policy. Given the increasingly dominant role of fiscal action in downturns, as is highlighted during the Covid‐19 crisis, these findings clearly indicate the importance of building fiscal space in good times to provide capacity for countercyclical policy in bad times.
Author McManus, Richard
Ahmad, Asif
Ozkan, F. Gulcin
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  surname: Ozkan
  fullname: Ozkan, F. Gulcin
  email: gulcin.ozkan@kcl.ac.uk
  organization: King's College London
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Snippet Utilizing data from 133 countries over the period 1950–2014, we identify fiscal space as a key factor underlying the cyclicality of fiscal policies. We find...
Abstract Utilizing data from 133 countries over the period 1950–2014, we identify fiscal space as a key factor underlying the cyclicality of fiscal policies....
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StartPage 1687
SubjectTerms COVID-19
fiscal cyclicality
Fiscal policy
fiscal space
recession
Title Fiscal space and the procyclicality of fiscal policy: The case for making hay while the sun shines
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