How Will the Court Decide? - Tax Experts' versus Laymen's Predictions

• Published in: The European accounting review Vol. 25; no. 4; pp. 771 - 792
• Main Authors: Blaufus, Kay, Bob, Jonathan, Lorenz, Daniela, Trinks, Matthias
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London Routledge 01.10.2016; Taylor & Francis Ltd
• Subjects: Advisors; Averages; Bias; Court decisions; Courts; Experts; Federal court decisions; Forecasting; Penalties; Polls & surveys; Predictions; Revenue; State court decisions; Tax controversies; Tax court decisions; Taxation; Germany

We conduct a survey of German tax professionals (tax advisors and revenue agents) and laymen to examine whether tax experts more accurately forecast the outcomes of five real cases from the German Federal Fiscal Court. With an average of 2.39 correct predictions among experts and an average of 2.49...