On the Predictability and Error Sources of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts

• Published in: Journal of the atmospheric sciences Vol. 73; no. 9; pp. 3739 - 3747
• Main Authors: Emanuel, Kerry, Zhang, Fuqing
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Boston American Meteorological Society 01.09.2016
• Subjects: Aircraft; Cyclones; Data assimilation; Data collection; Errors; Estimates; Growth; Hurricanes; Kinematics; Mathematical models; Modelling; Perturbation; Storms; Tropical cyclone intensities; Tropical cyclones; Wind; North Atlantic region

The skill of tropical cyclone intensity forecasts has improved slowly since such forecasts became routine, even though track forecast skill has increased markedly over the same period. In deciding whether or how best to improve intensity forecasts, it is useful to estimate fundamental predictability...