A micro-macro approach for the evaluation of fiscal policies: The case of the Italian tax-benefit reform
A comprehensive evaluation of fiscal policy reforms requires a methodology that simultaneously considers their aggregate impact on the economy as a whole as well as their distributional implications at the individual or household level. In this paper, we provide a new link between a fiscal microsimu...
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Published in | Economic modelling Vol. 135; p. 106689 |
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Abstract | A comprehensive evaluation of fiscal policy reforms requires a methodology that simultaneously considers their aggregate impact on the economy as a whole as well as their distributional implications at the individual or household level.
In this paper, we provide a new link between a fiscal microsimulation model and a macro-econometric model and we analyze the impact of the reform of the Italian tax-benefit system occurred in 2022.
The reform is expected to have a first-round cost of about 15 billion euros due to the tax cut and the increase in child related benefits, with a reduction in inequality of around 0.5 percentage points of Gini index. The second-round effects confirm the reduction in inequality and indicate an initial self-financing effect of about 7%. Our estimates support the importance of integrating micro- and macroeconomic insights for a more accurate assessment of the impact of public policies.
•We provide a new link of a microsimulation model with a Post-Keynesian macro-model.•We use the integrated model to evaluate the 2022 Italian tax-benefit reform.•First round effects highlight an inequality reduction and an efficiency improvement.•Second round effects confirm inequality reduction and show a self-financing effect.•In the medium term the equity-efficiency gain of the reform is reinforced. |
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AbstractList | A comprehensive evaluation of fiscal policy reforms requires a methodology that simultaneously considers their aggregate impact on the economy as a whole as well as their distributional implications at the individual or household level.
In this paper, we provide a new link between a fiscal microsimulation model and a macro-econometric model and we analyze the impact of the reform of the Italian tax-benefit system occurred in 2022.
The reform is expected to have a first-round cost of about 15 billion euros due to the tax cut and the increase in child related benefits, with a reduction in inequality of around 0.5 percentage points of Gini index. The second-round effects confirm the reduction in inequality and indicate an initial self-financing effect of about 7%. Our estimates support the importance of integrating micro- and macroeconomic insights for a more accurate assessment of the impact of public policies.
•We provide a new link of a microsimulation model with a Post-Keynesian macro-model.•We use the integrated model to evaluate the 2022 Italian tax-benefit reform.•First round effects highlight an inequality reduction and an efficiency improvement.•Second round effects confirm inequality reduction and show a self-financing effect.•In the medium term the equity-efficiency gain of the reform is reinforced. |
ArticleNumber | 106689 |
Author | Longo, Enrico Suta, Cornelia-Madalina Alexandri, Eva Figari, Francesco |
Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Eva surname: Alexandri fullname: Alexandri, Eva email: ea@camecon.com organization: Cambridge Econometrics, UK – sequence: 2 givenname: Francesco surname: Figari fullname: Figari, Francesco email: francesco.figari@uniupo.it organization: University of Eastern Piedmont, Italy – sequence: 3 givenname: Enrico orcidid: 0009-0005-0981-227X surname: Longo fullname: Longo, Enrico email: enrico.longo@uni-hamburg.de organization: University of Hamburg, Germany – sequence: 4 givenname: Cornelia-Madalina surname: Suta fullname: Suta, Cornelia-Madalina email: cs@camecon.com organization: Cambridge Econometrics, UK |
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