Changes in Frequency of Large Precipitation Accumulations over Land in a Warming Climate from the CESM Large Ensemble The Roles of Moisture, Circulation, and Duration
Projected changes in the frequency of major precipitation accumulations (hundreds of millimeters), integrated over rainfall events, over land in the late twenty-first century are analyzed in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble, based on the RCP8.5 scenario. Accumulation sizes are...
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Published in | Journal of climate Vol. 32; no. 17; pp. 5397 - 5416 |
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Main Authors | , , |
Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
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American Meteorological Society
01.09.2019
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Abstract | Projected changes in the frequency of major precipitation accumulations (hundreds of millimeters), integrated over rainfall events, over land in the late twenty-first century are analyzed in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble, based on the RCP8.5 scenario. Accumulation sizes are sorted by the local average recurrence interval (ARI), ranging from 0.1 to 100 years, for the current and projected late-twenty-first-century climates separately. For all ARIs, the frequency of exceedance of the given accumulation size increases in the future climate almost everywhere, especially for the largest accumulations, with the 100-yr accumulation becoming about 3 times more frequent, averaged over the global land area. The moisture budget allows the impacts of individual factors—moisture, circulation, and event duration—to be isolated. In the tropics, both moisture and circulation cause large future increases, enhancing the 100-yr accumulation by 23% and 13% (average over tropical land), and are individually responsible for making the current-climate 100-yr accumulation 2.7 times and 1.8 times more frequent, but effects of shorter durations slightly offset these effects. In the midlatitudes, large accumulations become about 5% longer in duration, but are predominantly controlled by enhanced moisture, with the 100-yr accumulation (land average) becoming 2.4 times more frequent, and 2.2 times more frequent due to moisture increases alone. In some monsoon-affected regions, the 100-yr accumulation becomes more than 5 times as frequent, where circulation changes are the most impactful factor. These projections indicate that changing duration of events is a relatively minor effect on changing accumulations, their future enhancement being dominated by enhanced intensity (the combination of moisture and circulation). |
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AbstractList | Projected changes in the frequency of major precipitation accumulations (hundreds of millimeters), integrated over rainfall events, over land in the late twenty-first century are analyzed in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble, based on the RCP8.5 scenario. Accumulation sizes are sorted by the local average recurrence interval (ARI), ranging from 0.1 to 100 years, for the current and projected late-twenty-first-century climates separately. For all ARIs, the frequency of exceedance of the given accumulation size increases in the future climate almost everywhere, especially for the largest accumulations, with the 100-yr accumulation becoming about 3 times more frequent, averaged over the global land area. The moisture budget allows the impacts of individual factors—moisture, circulation, and event duration—to be isolated. In the tropics, both moisture and circulation cause large future increases, enhancing the 100-yr accumulation by 23% and 13% (average over tropical land), and are individually responsible for making the current-climate 100-yr accumulation 2.7 times and 1.8 times more frequent, but effects of shorter durations slightly offset these effects. In the midlatitudes, large accumulations become about 5% longer in duration, but are predominantly controlled by enhanced moisture, with the 100-yr accumulation (land average) becoming 2.4 times more frequent, and 2.2 times more frequent due to moisture increases alone. In some monsoon-affected regions, the 100-yr accumulation becomes more than 5 times as frequent, where circulation changes are the most impactful factor. These projections indicate that changing duration of events is a relatively minor effect on changing accumulations, their future enhancement being dominated by enhanced intensity (the combination of moisture and circulation). ABSTRACT Projected changes in the frequency of major precipitation accumulations (hundreds of millimeters), integrated over rainfall events, over land in the late twenty-first century are analyzed in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble, based on the RCP8.5 scenario. Accumulation sizes are sorted by the local average recurrence interval (ARI), ranging from 0.1 to 100 years, for the current and projected late-twenty-first-century climates separately. For all ARIs, the frequency of exceedance of the given accumulation size increases in the future climate almost everywhere, especially for the largest accumulations, with the 100-yr accumulation becoming about 3 times more frequent, averaged over the global land area. The moisture budget allows the impacts of individual factors—moisture, circulation, and event duration—to be isolated. In the tropics, both moisture and circulation cause large future increases, enhancing the 100-yr accumulation by 23% and 13% (average over tropical land), and are individually responsible for making the current-climate 100-yr accumulation 2.7 times and 1.8 times more frequent, but effects of shorter durations slightly offset these effects. In the midlatitudes, large accumulations become about 5% longer in duration, but are predominantly controlled by enhanced moisture, with the 100-yr accumulation (land average) becoming 2.4 times more frequent, and 2.2 times more frequent due to moisture increases alone. In some monsoon-affected regions, the 100-yr accumulation becomes more than 5 times as frequent, where circulation changes are the most impactful factor. These projections indicate that changing duration of events is a relatively minor effect on changing accumulations, their future enhancement being dominated by enhanced intensity (the combination of moisture and circulation). |
Author | Norris, Jesse Chen, Gang Neelin, J. David |
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Cites_doi | 10.1023/A:1005488920935 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0369.1 10.1175/JHM560.1 10.1002/2017GL072855 10.1038/nclimate3287 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00183.1 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00239.1 10.1038/ngeo1731 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00182.1 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0818.1 10.1175/JAS-D-13-0268.1 10.1175/JAS-D-18-0067.1 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0302.1 10.1002/jgrd.50188 10.1002/2017GL076361 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00502.1 10.5194/hessd-12-671-2015 10.1007/978-1-4471-3675-0 10.1007/s10584-013-0705-8 10.1029/2010JD015529 10.1061/41173(414)486 10.1088/1742-5468/2010/11/P11030 10.1029/2018GL078465 10.1038/s41598-017-17966-y 10.1073/pnas.0907610106 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00018.1 10.1038/nclimate2941 10.1029/2005GL023272 10.1073/pnas.1615333114 10.1007/s00382-006-0180-2 10.1175/JCLI3672.1 10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00255.1 |
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Snippet | Projected changes in the frequency of major precipitation accumulations (hundreds of millimeters), integrated over rainfall events, over land in the late... ABSTRACT Projected changes in the frequency of major precipitation accumulations (hundreds of millimeters), integrated over rainfall events, over land in the... |
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SubjectTerms | Accumulation Atmosphere Atmospheric circulation Atmospheric precipitations Circulation Climate Climate change Datasets Duration Dynamics Emissions ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Extreme events Floods Future climates General circulation models Global warming Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences Moisture Moisture budget Precipitation Rain Rainfall Tropical climate Tropical environments |
Subtitle | The Roles of Moisture, Circulation, and Duration |
Title | Changes in Frequency of Large Precipitation Accumulations over Land in a Warming Climate from the CESM Large Ensemble |
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