Mapping Vulnerability of Cotton to Climate Change in West Africa: Challenges for Sustainable Development
Climate models project vulnerability to global warming in low-income regions, with important implications for sustainable development. While food crops are the priority, smallholder cash crops support food security, education, and other priorities. Despite its importance as a populous region subject...
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Published in | Climate (Basel) Vol. 9; no. 4; p. 68 |
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Main Authors | , , , , , , |
Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
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MDPI AG
01.04.2021
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Abstract | Climate models project vulnerability to global warming in low-income regions, with important implications for sustainable development. While food crops are the priority, smallholder cash crops support food security, education, and other priorities. Despite its importance as a populous region subject to substantial climate change, West Africa has received relatively slight attention in spatial assessments of climate impacts. In this region, rainfed cotton (Gossypium hirsutum) provides essential smallholder income. We used a spatially explicit species distribution model to project likely changes in the spatial distribution of suitable climates for rainfed cotton in West Africa. We modeled suitable climate conditions from the recent past (1970–2000) and projected the range of those conditions in 2050 (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5). The suitable area declined by 60 percent under RCP4.5 and by 80 percent under RCP8.5. Of 15 countries in the study area, all but two declined to less than ten percent suitable under RCP8.5. The annual precipitation was the most influential factor in explaining baseline cotton distribution, but 2050 temperatures appear to become the limiting factor, rising beyond the range in which rainfed cotton has historically been grown. Adaptation to these changes and progress on sustainable development goals will depend on responses at multiple scales of governance, including global support and cooperation. |
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AbstractList | Climate models project vulnerability to global warming in low-income regions, with important implications for sustainable development. While food crops are the priority, smallholder cash crops support food security, education, and other priorities. Despite its importance as a populous region subject to substantial climate change, West Africa has received relatively slight attention in spatial assessments of climate impacts. In this region, rainfed cotton (Gossypium hirsutum) provides essential smallholder income. We used a spatially explicit species distribution model to project likely changes in the spatial distribution of suitable climates for rainfed cotton in West Africa. We modeled suitable climate conditions from the recent past (1970–2000) and projected the range of those conditions in 2050 (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5). The suitable area declined by 60 percent under RCP4.5 and by 80 percent under RCP8.5. Of 15 countries in the study area, all but two declined to less than ten percent suitable under RCP8.5. The annual precipitation was the most influential factor in explaining baseline cotton distribution, but 2050 temperatures appear to become the limiting factor, rising beyond the range in which rainfed cotton has historically been grown. Adaptation to these changes and progress on sustainable development goals will depend on responses at multiple scales of governance, including global support and cooperation. |
Author | Kellner, Chloe A. Wright, Nicholas S. Edington, Christopher J. Cunningham, Mary Ann Mort Ranta, Penelope B. Benton, Hannah K. Ragy, Hassan G. |
Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Mary Ann orcidid: 0000-0002-7087-6329 surname: Cunningham fullname: Cunningham, Mary Ann – sequence: 2 givenname: Nicholas S. orcidid: 0000-0003-0798-333X surname: Wright fullname: Wright, Nicholas S. – sequence: 3 givenname: Penelope B. surname: Mort Ranta fullname: Mort Ranta, Penelope B. – sequence: 4 givenname: Hannah K. surname: Benton fullname: Benton, Hannah K. – sequence: 5 givenname: Hassan G. surname: Ragy fullname: Ragy, Hassan G. – sequence: 6 givenname: Christopher J. surname: Edington fullname: Edington, Christopher J. – sequence: 7 givenname: Chloe A. surname: Kellner fullname: Kellner, Chloe A. |
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Cites_doi | 10.1002/joc.5086 10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.10.025 10.1007/978-90-481-3195-2 10.1111/j.1600-0587.2013.07872.x 10.1007/s00382-016-3355-5 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.10.008 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.136165 10.1111/j.1365-2664.2006.01214.x 10.1038/s41597-019-0343-8 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.03.026 10.7215/AG_IP_20100618 10.1016/j.agsy.2017.05.009 10.1002/joc.1276 10.1017/CBO9781107415324 10.1038/s41598-018-32736-0 10.1007/s10584-016-1774-2 10.1007/s10584-013-0776-6 10.3390/cli7090101 10.1007/s10841-019-00151-z 10.1007/s10584-015-1522-z 10.1088/1748-9326/ab9daf 10.3390/agronomy9110727 10.1073/pnas.2007117117 10.1038/s41598-020-59943-y 10.1029/2008GB003435 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2015.06.007 |
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Copyright | 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License. |
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SubjectTerms | Agriculture Algorithms Annual precipitation Cash crops Climate Climate change climate impacts Climate models Climatic conditions Corn Cotton Crops Distribution Environmental assessment Farmers Food Food security Generalized linear models Geographical distribution Global warming Governance Heat Income Irrigation Limiting factors Maxent Precipitation Rain Rainfall rainfed cotton Rice Spatial distribution species distribution model Subsidies Sustainability Sustainable development Sustainable Development Goals sustainable development goals (SDGs) Vulnerability West Africa |
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Title | Mapping Vulnerability of Cotton to Climate Change in West Africa: Challenges for Sustainable Development |
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