Analytical fragility assessment using unscaled ground motion records

• Published in: Earthquake engineering & structural dynamics Vol. 46; no. 15; pp. 2639 - 2663
• Main Authors: Jalayer, Fatemeh, Ebrahimian, Hossein, Miano, Andrea, Manfredi, Gaetano, Sezen, Halil
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Bognor Regis Wiley Subscription Services, Inc 01.12.2017
• Subjects: Bayesian parameter estimation; Capacity; Cloud Analysis; Clouds; Collapse; Computer simulation; Confidence intervals; Demand analysis; Dynamic analysis; Flexing; Fragility; Ground motion; Markov chains; Monte Carlo simulation; Nonlinear analysis; nonlinear dynamic analysis; performance‐based earthquake engineering; Records; record‐to‐record variability; regression; Regression analysis; Reinforced concrete; Shear; Simulation; Statistical analysis; Statistical methods; Unity
• DOI: 10.1002/eqe.2922
• ISSN: 0098-8847

Summary It is desirable that nonlinear dynamic analyses for structural fragility assessment are performed using unscaled ground motions. The widespread use of a simple dynamic analysis procedure known as Cloud Analysis, which uses unscaled records and linear regression, has been impeded by its alleged inaccuracies. This paper investigates fragility assessment based on Cloud Analysis by adopting, as the performance variable, a scalar demand to capacity ratio that is equal to unity at the onset of limit state. It is shown that the Cloud Analysis, performed based on a careful choice of records, leads to reasonable and efficient fragility estimates. There are 2 main rules to keep in mind for record selection: to make sure that a good portion of the records leads to a demand to capacity ratio greater than unity and that the dispersion in records' seismic intensity is considerable. An inevitable consequence of implementing these rules is that one often needs to deal with the so‐called collapse cases. To formally consider the collapse cases, a 5‐parameter fragility model is proposed that mixes the simple regression in the logarithmic scale with logistic regression. The joint distribution of fragility parameters can be obtained by adopting a Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation scheme leading directly to the fragility and its confidence intervals. The resulting fragility curves compare reasonably with those obtained from the Incremental Dynamic Analysis and Multiple Stripe Analysis with (variable) conditional spectrum–compatible suites of records at different intensity levels for 3 older reinforced concrete frames with shear‐, shear‐flexure‐, and flexure‐dominant behavior.