Evaluation of Probabilistic Forecasts of Extreme Cold Events in S2S Models

• Published in: Water (Basel) Vol. 15; no. 15; p. 2795
• Main Authors: Liang, Xiaoyun, Vitart, Frederic, Wu, Tongwen
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Basel MDPI AG 01.08.2023
• Subjects: Climate change; Cold; extreme cold events; MJO; predictability; prediction skill; probabilistic forecasts; Probability; S2S; Weather; Weather forecasting; United Kingdom; North America; Taiwan

The probabilistic prediction skill of the weekly forecasts of extreme cold events (ECE) is illustrated and measured in the form of the Brier Skill Score (BSS) and the area under Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) curves based on the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction project database. Th...