Probability of extinction and peak time for multi-type epidemics with application to COVID-19 variants of concern

• Published in: Journal of theoretical biology Vol. 608; p. 112135
• Main Authors: Curran-Sebastian, Jacob, Dyson, Louise, Hill, Edward M., Hall, Ian, Pellis, Lorenzo, House, Thomas
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: England Elsevier Ltd 07.07.2025
• Subjects: Computer Simulation; COVID-19; COVID-19 - epidemiology; COVID-19 - transmission; COVID-19 - virology; Epidemics; Heterogeneity; Humans; Models, Biological; Multi-type branching process; Pandemics; Probability; SARS-CoV-2; Stochastic model; Stochastic Processes; Time Factors; United Kingdom - epidemiology; Variant of concern; United Kingdom; COVID-19; Heterogeneity; Stochastic model; Variant of concern; Multi-type branching process

•The dynamics of strain invasion and establishment are subject to high stochasticity.•We describe a model of the early growth of a putative COVID-19 variant of concern in the UK.•We derive a novel approximation for the time to establishment of an invading strain.•Our estimates of uncertainty are use...