The United States rheumatology workforce: Supply and demand, 2005–2025
Objective To develop and apply a model that allows prediction of current and future supply and demand for rheumatology services in the US. Methods A supply model was developed using the age and sex distribution of current physicians, retirement and mortality rates, the number of fellowship slots and...
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Published in | Arthritis and rheumatism Vol. 56; no. 3; pp. 722 - 729 |
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Main Authors | , , , , , , , |
Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
Published |
Hoboken
Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company
01.03.2007
Wiley |
Subjects | |
Online Access | Get full text |
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Abstract | Objective
To develop and apply a model that allows prediction of current and future supply and demand for rheumatology services in the US.
Methods
A supply model was developed using the age and sex distribution of current physicians, retirement and mortality rates, the number of fellowship slots and fill rates, and practice patterns of rheumatologists. A Markov projection model was used to project needs in 5‐year increments from 2005 to 2025.
Results
The number of rheumatologists for adult patients in the US in 2005 is 4,946. Male and female rheumatologists are equally distributed up to age 44; above age 44, men predominate. The percent of women in adult rheumatology is projected to increase from 30.2% in 2005 to 43.6% in 2025. The mean number of visits per rheumatologist per year is 3,758 for male rheumatologists and 2,800 for female rheumatologists. Assuming rheumatology supply and demand are in equilibrium in 2005, the demand for rheumatologists in 2025 is projected to exceed supply by 2,576 adult and 33 pediatric rheumatologists. The primary factors in the excess demand are an aging population which will increase the number of people with rheumatic disorders, growth in the Gross Domestic Product, and flat rheumatology supply due to fixed numbers entering the workforce and to retirements. The productivity of younger rheumatologists and women, who will make up a greater percentage of the future workforce, may also have important effects on supply. Unknown effects that could influence these projections include technology advances, more efficient practice methods, changes in insurance reimbursements, and shifting lifestyles. Current data suggest that the pediatric rheumatology workforce is experiencing a substantial excess of demand versus supply.
Conclusion
Based on assessment of supply and demand under current scenarios, the demand for rheumatologists is expected to exceed supply in the coming decades. Strategies for the profession to adapt to this changing health care landscape include increasing the number of fellows each year, utilizing physician assistants and nurse practitioners in greater numbers, and improving practice efficiency. |
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AbstractList | Objective
To develop and apply a model that allows prediction of current and future supply and demand for rheumatology services in the US.
Methods
A supply model was developed using the age and sex distribution of current physicians, retirement and mortality rates, the number of fellowship slots and fill rates, and practice patterns of rheumatologists. A Markov projection model was used to project needs in 5‐year increments from 2005 to 2025.
Results
The number of rheumatologists for adult patients in the US in 2005 is 4,946. Male and female rheumatologists are equally distributed up to age 44; above age 44, men predominate. The percent of women in adult rheumatology is projected to increase from 30.2% in 2005 to 43.6% in 2025. The mean number of visits per rheumatologist per year is 3,758 for male rheumatologists and 2,800 for female rheumatologists. Assuming rheumatology supply and demand are in equilibrium in 2005, the demand for rheumatologists in 2025 is projected to exceed supply by 2,576 adult and 33 pediatric rheumatologists. The primary factors in the excess demand are an aging population which will increase the number of people with rheumatic disorders, growth in the Gross Domestic Product, and flat rheumatology supply due to fixed numbers entering the workforce and to retirements. The productivity of younger rheumatologists and women, who will make up a greater percentage of the future workforce, may also have important effects on supply. Unknown effects that could influence these projections include technology advances, more efficient practice methods, changes in insurance reimbursements, and shifting lifestyles. Current data suggest that the pediatric rheumatology workforce is experiencing a substantial excess of demand versus supply.
Conclusion
Based on assessment of supply and demand under current scenarios, the demand for rheumatologists is expected to exceed supply in the coming decades. Strategies for the profession to adapt to this changing health care landscape include increasing the number of fellows each year, utilizing physician assistants and nurse practitioners in greater numbers, and improving practice efficiency. To develop and apply a model that allows prediction of current and future supply and demand for rheumatology services in the US. A supply model was developed using the age and sex distribution of current physicians, retirement and mortality rates, the number of fellowship slots and fill rates, and practice patterns of rheumatologists. A Markov projection model was used to project needs in 5-year increments from 2005 to 2025. The number of rheumatologists for adult patients in the US in 2005 is 4,946. Male and female rheumatologists are equally distributed up to age 44; above age 44, men predominate. The percent of women in adult rheumatology is projected to increase from 30.2% in 2005 to 43.6% in 2025. The mean number of visits per rheumatologist per year is 3,758 for male rheumatologists and 2,800 for female rheumatologists. Assuming rheumatology supply and demand are in equilibrium in 2005, the demand for rheumatologists in 2025 is projected to exceed supply by 2,576 adult and 33 pediatric rheumatologists. The primary factors in the excess demand are an aging population which will increase the number of people with rheumatic disorders, growth in the Gross Domestic Product, and flat rheumatology supply due to fixed numbers entering the workforce and to retirements. The productivity of younger rheumatologists and women, who will make up a greater percentage of the future workforce, may also have important effects on supply. Unknown effects that could influence these projections include technology advances, more efficient practice methods, changes in insurance reimbursements, and shifting lifestyles. Current data suggest that the pediatric rheumatology workforce is experiencing a substantial excess of demand versus supply. Based on assessment of supply and demand under current scenarios, the demand for rheumatologists is expected to exceed supply in the coming decades. Strategies for the profession to adapt to this changing health care landscape include increasing the number of fellows each year, utilizing physician assistants and nurse practitioners in greater numbers, and improving practice efficiency. OBJECTIVETo develop and apply a model that allows prediction of current and future supply and demand for rheumatology services in the US.METHODSA supply model was developed using the age and sex distribution of current physicians, retirement and mortality rates, the number of fellowship slots and fill rates, and practice patterns of rheumatologists. A Markov projection model was used to project needs in 5-year increments from 2005 to 2025.RESULTSThe number of rheumatologists for adult patients in the US in 2005 is 4,946. Male and female rheumatologists are equally distributed up to age 44; above age 44, men predominate. The percent of women in adult rheumatology is projected to increase from 30.2% in 2005 to 43.6% in 2025. The mean number of visits per rheumatologist per year is 3,758 for male rheumatologists and 2,800 for female rheumatologists. Assuming rheumatology supply and demand are in equilibrium in 2005, the demand for rheumatologists in 2025 is projected to exceed supply by 2,576 adult and 33 pediatric rheumatologists. The primary factors in the excess demand are an aging population which will increase the number of people with rheumatic disorders, growth in the Gross Domestic Product, and flat rheumatology supply due to fixed numbers entering the workforce and to retirements. The productivity of younger rheumatologists and women, who will make up a greater percentage of the future workforce, may also have important effects on supply. Unknown effects that could influence these projections include technology advances, more efficient practice methods, changes in insurance reimbursements, and shifting lifestyles. Current data suggest that the pediatric rheumatology workforce is experiencing a substantial excess of demand versus supply.CONCLUSIONBased on assessment of supply and demand under current scenarios, the demand for rheumatologists is expected to exceed supply in the coming decades. Strategies for the profession to adapt to this changing health care landscape include increasing the number of fellows each year, utilizing physician assistants and nurse practitioners in greater numbers, and improving practice efficiency. Abstract Objective To develop and apply a model that allows prediction of current and future supply and demand for rheumatology services in the US. Methods A supply model was developed using the age and sex distribution of current physicians, retirement and mortality rates, the number of fellowship slots and fill rates, and practice patterns of rheumatologists. A Markov projection model was used to project needs in 5‐year increments from 2005 to 2025. Results The number of rheumatologists for adult patients in the US in 2005 is 4,946. Male and female rheumatologists are equally distributed up to age 44; above age 44, men predominate. The percent of women in adult rheumatology is projected to increase from 30.2% in 2005 to 43.6% in 2025. The mean number of visits per rheumatologist per year is 3,758 for male rheumatologists and 2,800 for female rheumatologists. Assuming rheumatology supply and demand are in equilibrium in 2005, the demand for rheumatologists in 2025 is projected to exceed supply by 2,576 adult and 33 pediatric rheumatologists. The primary factors in the excess demand are an aging population which will increase the number of people with rheumatic disorders, growth in the Gross Domestic Product, and flat rheumatology supply due to fixed numbers entering the workforce and to retirements. The productivity of younger rheumatologists and women, who will make up a greater percentage of the future workforce, may also have important effects on supply. Unknown effects that could influence these projections include technology advances, more efficient practice methods, changes in insurance reimbursements, and shifting lifestyles. Current data suggest that the pediatric rheumatology workforce is experiencing a substantial excess of demand versus supply. Conclusion Based on assessment of supply and demand under current scenarios, the demand for rheumatologists is expected to exceed supply in the coming decades. Strategies for the profession to adapt to this changing health care landscape include increasing the number of fellows each year, utilizing physician assistants and nurse practitioners in greater numbers, and improving practice efficiency. |
Author | Hooker, Roderick Deal, Chad L. Birnbaum, Neal Hogan, Paul Klein‐Gitelman, Marisa Harrington, Timothy Bouchery, Ellen Barr, Walter |
Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Chad L. surname: Deal fullname: Deal, Chad L. email: dealc@ccf.org – sequence: 2 givenname: Roderick surname: Hooker fullname: Hooker, Roderick – sequence: 3 givenname: Timothy surname: Harrington fullname: Harrington, Timothy – sequence: 4 givenname: Neal surname: Birnbaum fullname: Birnbaum, Neal – sequence: 5 givenname: Paul surname: Hogan fullname: Hogan, Paul – sequence: 6 givenname: Ellen surname: Bouchery fullname: Bouchery, Ellen – sequence: 7 givenname: Marisa surname: Klein‐Gitelman fullname: Klein‐Gitelman, Marisa – sequence: 8 givenname: Walter surname: Barr fullname: Barr, Walter |
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References_xml | – volume: 42 start-page: 1797 year: 1999 end-page: 808 article-title: Listening to the patient: a practical guide to self‐report questionnaires in clinical care publication-title: Arthritis Rheum – volume: 52 start-page: S688 issue: Suppl 9 year: 2005 article-title: A pilot test using a standardized clinical database to monitor rheumatoid arthritis disease activity in rheumatology practice publication-title: Arthritis Rheum – volume: 185 start-page: 4 year: 2006 end-page: 7 article-title: Physician assistants and nurse practitioners: the United States experience publication-title: Med J Aust – volume: 54 start-page: 226 year: 2006 end-page: 9 article-title: Projections of US prevalence of arthritis and associated activity limitations publication-title: Arthritis Rheum – volume: 113 start-page: 173 year: 2004 end-page: 81 article-title: Role of pediatric and internist rheumatologists in treating children with rheumatic diseases publication-title: Pediatrics – volume: 128 start-page: 651 year: 1998 end-page: 6 article-title: Developing and testing changes in delivery of care publication-title: Ann Intern Med – volume: 141 start-page: 705 year: 2004 end-page: 14 article-title: Weighing the evidence for expanding physician supply publication-title: Ann Intern Med – year: 2001 – year: 2006 – volume: 27 start-page: 2727 year: 2000 end-page: 30 article-title: An infrastructure of patient questionnaires at each rheumatology visit: improving efficiency and documenting care publication-title: J Rheumatol – volume: 53 start-page: 198 year: 2005 end-page: 204 article-title: Redesigning the care of fragility fracture patients to improve osteoporosis management: a health care improvement project publication-title: Arthritis Rheum – volume: 39 start-page: 1218 year: 1996 end-page: 21 article-title: Pediatric rheumatology in adult rheumatology practices in Washington state publication-title: Arthritis Rheum – volume: 51 start-page: 253 year: 2004 end-page: 7 article-title: “The rheumatologist can see you now”: successful implementation of an advanced access model in a rheumatology practice publication-title: Arthritis Rheum – volume: 32 start-page: 575 year: 2005 end-page: 7 article-title: Patient questionnaires for clinical research and improved standard patient care: is it better to have 80% of the information in 100% of patients or 100% of the information in 5% of patients? publication-title: J Rheumatol – volume: 29 start-page: 41 year: 1994 end-page: 7 article-title: A randomised clinical trial of the effect of informed consent on the analgesic activity of placebo and naproxen in cancer pain publication-title: Clin Trials Metaanal – volume: 46 start-page: 851 year: 2002 end-page: 4 article-title: Urgent care and tight control of rheumatoid arthritis as in diabetes and hypertension: better treatments but a shortage of rheumatologists publication-title: Arthritis Rheum – volume: 272 start-page: 222 year: 1994 end-page: 30 article-title: Forecasting the effects of health reform on US physician workforce requirement: evidence from HMO staffing patterns publication-title: JAMA – volume: 45 start-page: 295 year: 2001 end-page: 300 article-title: Pre‐appointment management of new patient referrals in rheumatology: a key strategy for improving health care delivery publication-title: Arthritis Rheum – volume: 52 start-page: S686 issue: Suppl 9 year: 2005 article-title: Global arthritis score: a rapid practice tool for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) assessment publication-title: Arthritis Rheum – volume: 27 start-page: 2727 year: 2000 ident: e_1_2_6_14_2 article-title: An infrastructure of patient questionnaires at each rheumatology visit: improving efficiency and documenting care publication-title: J Rheumatol contributor: fullname: Pincus T – volume: 29 start-page: 41 year: 1994 ident: e_1_2_6_17_2 article-title: A randomised clinical trial of the effect of informed consent on the analgesic activity of placebo and naproxen in cancer pain publication-title: Clin Trials Metaanal contributor: fullname: Bergmann JF – volume: 52 start-page: S686 issue: 9 year: 2005 ident: e_1_2_6_13_2 article-title: Global arthritis score: a rapid practice tool for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) assessment publication-title: Arthritis Rheum contributor: fullname: Cush JJ – ident: e_1_2_6_15_2 doi: 10.1002/1529-0131(199909)42:9<1797::AID-ANR2>3.0.CO;2-Q – ident: e_1_2_6_8_2 doi: 10.1002/art.10202 – volume-title: Crossing the quality chasm: a new health system for the 21st century year: 2001 ident: e_1_2_6_10_2 contributor: fullname: Institute of Medicine (US) Committee on Quality of Health Care in America – ident: e_1_2_6_9_2 doi: 10.1002/art.20239 – ident: e_1_2_6_4_2 doi: 10.1002/art.21562 – volume: 52 start-page: S688 issue: 9 year: 2005 ident: e_1_2_6_12_2 article-title: A pilot test using a standardized clinical database to monitor rheumatoid arthritis disease activity in rheumatology practice publication-title: Arthritis Rheum contributor: fullname: Harrington JT – ident: e_1_2_6_3_2 doi: 10.7326/0003-4819-141-9-200411020-00012 – ident: e_1_2_6_18_2 doi: 10.1002/art.21072 – ident: e_1_2_6_6_2 doi: 10.1542/peds.113.3.e173 – ident: e_1_2_6_11_2 doi: 10.7326/0003-4819-128-8-199804150-00009 – ident: e_1_2_6_7_2 doi: 10.1002/1529-0131(200106)45:3<295::AID-ART263>3.0.CO;2-3 – ident: e_1_2_6_19_2 doi: 10.5694/j.1326-5377.2006.tb00438.x – volume: 32 start-page: 575 year: 2005 ident: e_1_2_6_16_2 article-title: Patient questionnaires for clinical research and improved standard patient care: is it better to have 80% of the information in 100% of patients or 100% of the information in 5% of patients? publication-title: J Rheumatol contributor: fullname: Pincus T – volume: 272 start-page: 222 year: 1994 ident: e_1_2_6_2_2 article-title: Forecasting the effects of health reform on US physician workforce requirement: evidence from HMO staffing patterns publication-title: JAMA doi: 10.1001/jama.1994.03520030064030 contributor: fullname: Weiner JP – ident: e_1_2_6_5_2 doi: 10.1002/art.1780390722 – volume-title: Redefining health care: creating value‐based competition on results year: 2006 ident: e_1_2_6_20_2 contributor: fullname: Porter ME |
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Snippet | Objective
To develop and apply a model that allows prediction of current and future supply and demand for rheumatology services in the US.
Methods
A supply... To develop and apply a model that allows prediction of current and future supply and demand for rheumatology services in the US. A supply model was developed... Abstract Objective To develop and apply a model that allows prediction of current and future supply and demand for rheumatology services in the US. Methods A... OBJECTIVETo develop and apply a model that allows prediction of current and future supply and demand for rheumatology services in the US.METHODSA supply model... |
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SubjectTerms | Adult Biological and medical sciences Computer Simulation Diseases of the osteoarticular system Female Forecasting Health Services Needs and Demand - statistics & numerical data Health Services Needs and Demand - trends Humans Male Medical sciences Middle Aged Physicians - supply & distribution Rheumatology - manpower Specialization - statistics & numerical data United States |
Title | The United States rheumatology workforce: Supply and demand, 2005–2025 |
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