Forecasting football results and exploiting betting markets: The case of “both teams to score”

• Published in: International journal of forecasting Vol. 38; no. 3; pp. 895 - 909
• Main Authors: da Costa, Igor Barbosa, Marinho, Leandro Balby, Pires, Carlos Eduardo Santos
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier B.V 01.07.2022
• Subjects: Feature engineering; Football; Forecasting; Machine learning; Soccer prediction; Sports betting; Football; Soccer prediction; Forecasting; Feature engineering; Sports betting; Machine learning
• ISSN: 0169-2070; 1872-8200
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.06.008

The continuous growth of available football data presents unprecedented research opportunities for a better understanding of football dynamics. While many research works focus on predicting which team will win a match, other interesting questions, such as whether both teams will score in a game, are still unexplored and have gained momentum with the rise of betting markets. With this in mind, we investigate the following research questions in this paper: “How difficult is the ‘both teams to score’ (BTTS) prediction problem?”, “Are machine learning classifiers capable of predicting BTTS better than bookmakers?”, and “Are machine learning classifiers useful for devising profitable betting strategies in the BTTS market?”. We collected historical football data, extracted groups of features to represent the teams’ strengths, and fed these to state-of-the-art classification models. We performed a comprehensive set of experiments and showed that, although hard to predict, in some scenarios it is possible to outperform bookmakers, which are robust baselines per se. More importantly, in some cases it is possible to beat the market and devise profitable strategies based on machine learning algorithms. The results are encouraging and, besides shedding light on the problem, may provide novel insights for all kinds of football stakeholders.