An integrated simulation-optimization modeling system for water resources management under coupled impacts of climate and land use variabilities with priority in ecological protection
An integrated simulation-optimization modeling system (ISOMS) approach was developed for assessing adaptive strategies in response to coupled impacts of climate and landuse variations. The ISOMS can not only reflect future hydrological trends under changing environment, but also provide water-alloca...
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Published in | Advances in water resources Vol. 154; p. 103986 |
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Main Authors | , , , , , , |
Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
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Elsevier Ltd
01.08.2021
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Abstract | An integrated simulation-optimization modeling system (ISOMS) approach was developed for assessing adaptive strategies in response to coupled impacts of climate and landuse variations. The ISOMS can not only reflect future hydrological trends under changing environment, but also provide water-allocation plans under various uncertainties expressed as random or fuzzy feature systematically. A case study of Anning River Basin with dry and warm characteristics in the upper Yangtze River was applied to inspect the model's applicability. A range of alternatives to adaptive strategies were generated under combinations of climate and landuse scenarios with different satisfaction levels. Results reveal that: (i) there exist increasing trend of temperature and precipitation in future period (2021–2050); (ii) the streamflow variation is more sensitive to climate change than landuse change; (iii) the hydrologic system uncertainties would lead to changes in water resources allocation; (iv) a low level of uncertainty satisfaction or a high level of violation risk would reduce the system reliability for the water resources system. The ISOMS approach has tremendous significance for evaluating hydrologic variations with complicated uncertainties, and providing optimal water allocation schemes responding to the coupled impacts of climate and landuse variations among society, economy and environment.
•An integrated simulation-based optimization modeling on MIKE SHE and MFSCP method.•A set of 31 GCMs and three CA-Markov modules for climate and land use projections.•Hydrological process and water availability vary under changing conditions.•Adaptive strategies for water resources generated under multiple scenarios. |
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AbstractList | An integrated simulation-optimization modeling system (ISOMS) approach was developed for assessing adaptive strategies in response to coupled impacts of climate and landuse variations. The ISOMS can not only reflect future hydrological trends under changing environment, but also provide water-allocation plans under various uncertainties expressed as random or fuzzy feature systematically. A case study of Anning River Basin with dry and warm characteristics in the upper Yangtze River was applied to inspect the model's applicability. A range of alternatives to adaptive strategies were generated under combinations of climate and landuse scenarios with different satisfaction levels. Results reveal that: (i) there exist increasing trend of temperature and precipitation in future period (2021–2050); (ii) the streamflow variation is more sensitive to climate change than landuse change; (iii) the hydrologic system uncertainties would lead to changes in water resources allocation; (iv) a low level of uncertainty satisfaction or a high level of violation risk would reduce the system reliability for the water resources system. The ISOMS approach has tremendous significance for evaluating hydrologic variations with complicated uncertainties, and providing optimal water allocation schemes responding to the coupled impacts of climate and landuse variations among society, economy and environment. An integrated simulation-optimization modeling system (ISOMS) approach was developed for assessing adaptive strategies in response to coupled impacts of climate and landuse variations. The ISOMS can not only reflect future hydrological trends under changing environment, but also provide water-allocation plans under various uncertainties expressed as random or fuzzy feature systematically. A case study of Anning River Basin with dry and warm characteristics in the upper Yangtze River was applied to inspect the model's applicability. A range of alternatives to adaptive strategies were generated under combinations of climate and landuse scenarios with different satisfaction levels. Results reveal that: (i) there exist increasing trend of temperature and precipitation in future period (2021–2050); (ii) the streamflow variation is more sensitive to climate change than landuse change; (iii) the hydrologic system uncertainties would lead to changes in water resources allocation; (iv) a low level of uncertainty satisfaction or a high level of violation risk would reduce the system reliability for the water resources system. The ISOMS approach has tremendous significance for evaluating hydrologic variations with complicated uncertainties, and providing optimal water allocation schemes responding to the coupled impacts of climate and landuse variations among society, economy and environment. •An integrated simulation-based optimization modeling on MIKE SHE and MFSCP method.•A set of 31 GCMs and three CA-Markov modules for climate and land use projections.•Hydrological process and water availability vary under changing conditions.•Adaptive strategies for water resources generated under multiple scenarios. |
ArticleNumber | 103986 |
Author | Li, Congcong Cai, Yanpeng Li, Chunhui Tan, Qian Wang, Xuan Liu, Qiang Chen, Dongni |
Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Congcong surname: Li fullname: Li, Congcong email: ccli@mail.bnu.edu.cn organization: State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China – sequence: 2 givenname: Yanpeng surname: Cai fullname: Cai, Yanpeng email: yanpeng.cai@gdut.edu.cn organization: Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Quality Improvement and Ecological Restoration for Watersheds, Institute of Environmental and Ecological Engineering, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, 510006, China – sequence: 3 givenname: Qian surname: Tan fullname: Tan, Qian organization: Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Quality Improvement and Ecological Restoration for Watersheds, Institute of Environmental and Ecological Engineering, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, 510006, China – sequence: 4 givenname: Xuan surname: Wang fullname: Wang, Xuan organization: State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China – sequence: 5 givenname: Chunhui surname: Li fullname: Li, Chunhui organization: State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China – sequence: 6 givenname: Qiang surname: Liu fullname: Liu, Qiang organization: State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China – sequence: 7 givenname: Dongni surname: Chen fullname: Chen, Dongni organization: State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China |
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SubjectTerms | Adaptive management case studies climate climate change Climate projection Ecology Hydrological simulation land use change Landuse projection risk stream flow temperature Uncertain optimization uncertainty water water allocation watersheds Yangtze River |
Title | An integrated simulation-optimization modeling system for water resources management under coupled impacts of climate and land use variabilities with priority in ecological protection |
URI | https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2021.103986 https://www.proquest.com/docview/2636389490 |
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