Regional Climate Impacts of Stabilizing Global Warming at 1.5 K Using Solar Geoengineering

The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2 K above preindustrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 K, in order to avert dangerous climate change. However, current greenhouse gas emissions targets are more compatible with scenarios exhibiting end‐...

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Published inEarth's future Vol. 6; no. 2; pp. 230 - 251
Main Authors Jones, Anthony C., Hawcroft, Matthew K., Haywood, James M., Jones, Andy, Guo, Xiaoran, Moore, John C.
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Hoboken, USA Wiley Periodicals, Inc 01.02.2018
John Wiley & Sons, Inc
Subjects
Amazon
Arctic sea ice
Climate change
Climate effects
Climate models
Extreme weather
Galvanizing
Geoengineering
Global climate
Global temperatures
Global warming
Greenhouse effect
Greenhouse gases
Heat waves
Heatwaves
Hydrology
Mean temperatures
Mitigation
Polar environments
Regional climates
River basins
Sea level rise
Storms
Temperature
Online AccessGet full text
ISSN2328-4277
2328-4277
DOI10.1002/2017EF000720

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Abstract The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2 K above preindustrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 K, in order to avert dangerous climate change. However, current greenhouse gas emissions targets are more compatible with scenarios exhibiting end‐of‐century global warming of 2.6–3.1 K, in clear contradiction to the 1.5 K target. In this study, we use a global climate model to investigate the climatic impacts of using solar geoengineering by stratospheric aerosol injection to stabilize global‐mean temperature at 1.5 K for the duration of the 21st century against three scenarios spanning the range of plausible greenhouse gas mitigation pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). In addition to stabilizing global mean temperature and offsetting both Arctic sea‐ice loss and thermosteric sea‐level rise, we find that solar geoengineering could effectively counteract enhancements to the frequency of extreme storms in the North Atlantic and heatwaves in Europe, but would be less effective at counteracting hydrological changes in the Amazon basin and North Atlantic storm track displacement. In summary, solar geoengineering may reduce global mean impacts but is an imperfect solution at the regional level, where the effects of climate change are experienced. Our results should galvanize research into the regionality of climate responses to solar geoengineering. Key Points We perform simulations in which solar geoengineering is used to stabilize global warming at 1.5 K above preindustrial levels Enhanced storm surge activity and heatwave increases under global warming are effectively counteracted by solar geoengineering Solar geoengineering does little to counteract Amazonian hydrological changes and North Atlantic storm track displacement
AbstractList The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2 K above preindustrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 K, in order to avert dangerous climate change. However, current greenhouse gas emissions targets are more compatible with scenarios exhibiting end‐of‐century global warming of 2.6–3.1 K, in clear contradiction to the 1.5 K target. In this study, we use a global climate model to investigate the climatic impacts of using solar geoengineering by stratospheric aerosol injection to stabilize global‐mean temperature at 1.5 K for the duration of the 21st century against three scenarios spanning the range of plausible greenhouse gas mitigation pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). In addition to stabilizing global mean temperature and offsetting both Arctic sea‐ice loss and thermosteric sea‐level rise, we find that solar geoengineering could effectively counteract enhancements to the frequency of extreme storms in the North Atlantic and heatwaves in Europe, but would be less effective at counteracting hydrological changes in the Amazon basin and North Atlantic storm track displacement. In summary, solar geoengineering may reduce global mean impacts but is an imperfect solution at the regional level, where the effects of climate change are experienced. Our results should galvanize research into the regionality of climate responses to solar geoengineering. Key Points We perform simulations in which solar geoengineering is used to stabilize global warming at 1.5 K above preindustrial levels Enhanced storm surge activity and heatwave increases under global warming are effectively counteracted by solar geoengineering Solar geoengineering does little to counteract Amazonian hydrological changes and North Atlantic storm track displacement
The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2 K above preindustrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 K, in order to avert dangerous climate change. However, current greenhouse gas emissions targets are more compatible with scenarios exhibiting end‐of‐century global warming of 2.6–3.1 K, in clear contradiction to the 1.5 K target. In this study, we use a global climate model to investigate the climatic impacts of using solar geoengineering by stratospheric aerosol injection to stabilize global‐mean temperature at 1.5 K for the duration of the 21st century against three scenarios spanning the range of plausible greenhouse gas mitigation pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). In addition to stabilizing global mean temperature and offsetting both Arctic sea‐ice loss and thermosteric sea‐level rise, we find that solar geoengineering could effectively counteract enhancements to the frequency of extreme storms in the North Atlantic and heatwaves in Europe, but would be less effective at counteracting hydrological changes in the Amazon basin and North Atlantic storm track displacement. In summary, solar geoengineering may reduce global mean impacts but is an imperfect solution at the regional level, where the effects of climate change are experienced. Our results should galvanize research into the regionality of climate responses to solar geoengineering.
The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2 K above preindustrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 K, in order to avert dangerous climate change. However, current greenhouse gas emissions targets are more compatible with scenarios exhibiting end‐of‐century global warming of 2.6–3.1 K, in clear contradiction to the 1.5 K target. In this study, we use a global climate model to investigate the climatic impacts of using solar geoengineering by stratospheric aerosol injection to stabilize global‐mean temperature at 1.5 K for the duration of the 21st century against three scenarios spanning the range of plausible greenhouse gas mitigation pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). In addition to stabilizing global mean temperature and offsetting both Arctic sea‐ice loss and thermosteric sea‐level rise, we find that solar geoengineering could effectively counteract enhancements to the frequency of extreme storms in the North Atlantic and heatwaves in Europe, but would be less effective at counteracting hydrological changes in the Amazon basin and North Atlantic storm track displacement. In summary, solar geoengineering may reduce global mean impacts but is an imperfect solution at the regional level, where the effects of climate change are experienced. Our results should galvanize research into the regionality of climate responses to solar geoengineering. We perform simulations in which solar geoengineering is used to stabilize global warming at 1.5 K above preindustrial levels Enhanced storm surge activity and heatwave increases under global warming are effectively counteracted by solar geoengineering Solar geoengineering does little to counteract Amazonian hydrological changes and North Atlantic storm track displacement
Author Jones, Andy
Jones, Anthony C.
Haywood, James M.
Guo, Xiaoran
Moore, John C.
Hawcroft, Matthew K.
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  orcidid: 0000-0002-3894-2867
  surname: Jones
  fullname: Jones, Anthony C.
  email: anthony.jones@metoffice.gov.uk
  organization: University of Exeter
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  surname: Haywood
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  organization: Met Office
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  surname: Jones
  fullname: Jones, Andy
  organization: Met Office
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  givenname: Xiaoran
  surname: Guo
  fullname: Guo, Xiaoran
  organization: Beijing Normal University
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  surname: Moore
  fullname: Moore, John C.
  organization: University of Lapland
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Snippet The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2 K above preindustrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 K, in...
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SubjectTerms Amazon
Arctic sea ice
Climate change
Climate effects
Climate models
Extreme weather
Galvanizing
Geoengineering
Global climate
Global temperatures
Global warming
Greenhouse effect
Greenhouse gases
Heat waves
Heatwaves
Hydrology
Mean temperatures
Mitigation
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Title Regional Climate Impacts of Stabilizing Global Warming at 1.5 K Using Solar Geoengineering
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