Real-World COVID-19 Vaccine Protection Rates against Infection in the Delta and Omicron Eras
The real-world vaccine protection rates (VPRs) against the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‑CoV‑2) infection are critical in formulating future vaccination strategies against the virus. Based on a varying coefficient stochastic epidemic model, we obtain 7 countries' real-wo...
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Published in | Research (Washington) Vol. 6; p. 0099 |
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Language | English |
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2023
American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) |
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Abstract | The real-world vaccine protection rates (VPRs) against the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‑CoV‑2) infection are critical in formulating future vaccination strategies against the virus. Based on a varying coefficient stochastic epidemic model, we obtain 7 countries' real-world VPRs using daily epidemiological and vaccination data, and find that the VPRs improved with more vaccine doses. The average VPR of the full vaccination was 82% (SE: 4%) and 61% (SE: 3%) in the pre-Delta and Delta-dominated periods, respectively. The Omicron variant reduced the average VPR of the full vaccination to 39% (SE: 2%). However, the booster dose restored the VPR to 63% (SE: 1%) which was significantly above the 50% threshold in the Omicron-dominated period. Scenario analyses show that the existing vaccination strategies have significantly delayed and reduced the timing and the magnitude of the infection peaks, respectively, and doubling the existing booster coverage would lead to 29% fewer confirmed cases and 17% fewer deaths in the 7 countries compared to the outcomes at the existing booster taking rates. These call for higher full vaccine and booster coverage for all countries. |
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AbstractList | The real-world vaccine protection rates (VPRs) against the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‑CoV‑2) infection are critical in formulating future vaccination strategies against the virus. Based on a varying coefficient stochastic epidemic model, we obtain 7 countries’ real-world VPRs using daily epidemiological and vaccination data, and find that the VPRs improved with more vaccine doses. The average VPR of the full vaccination was 82% (SE: 4%) and 61% (SE: 3%) in the pre-Delta and Delta-dominated periods, respectively. The Omicron variant reduced the average VPR of the full vaccination to 39% (SE: 2%). However, the booster dose restored the VPR to 63% (SE: 1%) which was significantly above the 50% threshold in the Omicron-dominated period. Scenario analyses show that the existing vaccination strategies have significantly delayed and reduced the timing and the magnitude of the infection peaks, respectively, and doubling the existing booster coverage would lead to 29% fewer confirmed cases and 17% fewer deaths in the 7 countries compared to the outcomes at the existing booster taking rates. These call for higher full vaccine and booster coverage for all countries. |
Author | Qiu, Yumou Gu, Jia Zhu, Yuru Chen, Song Xi |
AuthorAffiliation | 3 School of Mathematical Science and Guanghua School of Management , Peking University , Beijing , China 1 Center for Statistical Science , Peking University , Beijing , China 4 Pazhou Lab , Guangzhou , China 2 Department of Statistics , Iowa State University , Ames, IA , USA |
AuthorAffiliation_xml | – name: 2 Department of Statistics , Iowa State University , Ames, IA , USA – name: 1 Center for Statistical Science , Peking University , Beijing , China – name: 4 Pazhou Lab , Guangzhou , China – name: 3 School of Mathematical Science and Guanghua School of Management , Peking University , Beijing , China |
Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Yuru surname: Zhu fullname: Zhu, Yuru organization: Center for Statistical Science, Peking University, Beijing, China – sequence: 2 givenname: Jia surname: Gu fullname: Gu, Jia organization: Center for Statistical Science, Peking University, Beijing, China – sequence: 3 givenname: Yumou surname: Qiu fullname: Qiu, Yumou organization: Department of Statistics, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, USA – sequence: 4 givenname: Song Xi surname: Chen fullname: Chen, Song Xi organization: Pazhou Lab, Guangzhou, China |
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Title | Real-World COVID-19 Vaccine Protection Rates against Infection in the Delta and Omicron Eras |
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