Real-World COVID-19 Vaccine Protection Rates against Infection in the Delta and Omicron Eras

The real-world vaccine protection rates (VPRs) against the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‑CoV‑2) infection are critical in formulating future vaccination strategies against the virus. Based on a varying coefficient stochastic epidemic model, we obtain 7 countries' real-wo...

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Published inResearch (Washington) Vol. 6; p. 0099
Main Authors Zhu, Yuru, Gu, Jia, Qiu, Yumou, Chen, Song Xi
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published United States AAAS 2023
American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
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Abstract The real-world vaccine protection rates (VPRs) against the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‑CoV‑2) infection are critical in formulating future vaccination strategies against the virus. Based on a varying coefficient stochastic epidemic model, we obtain 7 countries' real-world VPRs using daily epidemiological and vaccination data, and find that the VPRs improved with more vaccine doses. The average VPR of the full vaccination was 82% (SE: 4%) and 61% (SE: 3%) in the pre-Delta and Delta-dominated periods, respectively. The Omicron variant reduced the average VPR of the full vaccination to 39% (SE: 2%). However, the booster dose restored the VPR to 63% (SE: 1%) which was significantly above the 50% threshold in the Omicron-dominated period. Scenario analyses show that the existing vaccination strategies have significantly delayed and reduced the timing and the magnitude of the infection peaks, respectively, and doubling the existing booster coverage would lead to 29% fewer confirmed cases and 17% fewer deaths in the 7 countries compared to the outcomes at the existing booster taking rates. These call for higher full vaccine and booster coverage for all countries.
AbstractList The real-world vaccine protection rates (VPRs) against the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‑CoV‑2) infection are critical in formulating future vaccination strategies against the virus. Based on a varying coefficient stochastic epidemic model, we obtain 7 countries’ real-world VPRs using daily epidemiological and vaccination data, and find that the VPRs improved with more vaccine doses. The average VPR of the full vaccination was 82% (SE: 4%) and 61% (SE: 3%) in the pre-Delta and Delta-dominated periods, respectively. The Omicron variant reduced the average VPR of the full vaccination to 39% (SE: 2%). However, the booster dose restored the VPR to 63% (SE: 1%) which was significantly above the 50% threshold in the Omicron-dominated period. Scenario analyses show that the existing vaccination strategies have significantly delayed and reduced the timing and the magnitude of the infection peaks, respectively, and doubling the existing booster coverage would lead to 29% fewer confirmed cases and 17% fewer deaths in the 7 countries compared to the outcomes at the existing booster taking rates. These call for higher full vaccine and booster coverage for all countries.
Author Qiu, Yumou
Gu, Jia
Zhu, Yuru
Chen, Song Xi
AuthorAffiliation 3 School of Mathematical Science and Guanghua School of Management , Peking University , Beijing , China
1 Center for Statistical Science , Peking University , Beijing , China
4 Pazhou Lab , Guangzhou , China
2 Department of Statistics , Iowa State University , Ames, IA , USA
AuthorAffiliation_xml – name: 2 Department of Statistics , Iowa State University , Ames, IA , USA
– name: 1 Center for Statistical Science , Peking University , Beijing , China
– name: 4 Pazhou Lab , Guangzhou , China
– name: 3 School of Mathematical Science and Guanghua School of Management , Peking University , Beijing , China
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  givenname: Yuru
  surname: Zhu
  fullname: Zhu, Yuru
  organization: Center for Statistical Science, Peking University, Beijing, China
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  givenname: Song Xi
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Title Real-World COVID-19 Vaccine Protection Rates against Infection in the Delta and Omicron Eras
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