Antecedent lake conditions shape resistance and resilience of a shallow lake ecosystem following extreme wind storms
Extreme wind storms can strongly influence short‐term variation in lake ecosystem functioning. Climate change is affecting storms by altering their frequency, duration, and intensity, which may have consequences for lake ecosystem resistance and resilience. However, catchment and lake processes are...
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| Published in | Limnology and oceanography Vol. 67; pp. S101 - S120 |
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| Main Authors | , , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
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Hoboken, USA
John Wiley & Sons, Inc
01.02.2022
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| Abstract | Extreme wind storms can strongly influence short‐term variation in lake ecosystem functioning. Climate change is affecting storms by altering their frequency, duration, and intensity, which may have consequences for lake ecosystem resistance and resilience. However, catchment and lake processes are simultaneously affecting antecedent lake conditions which may shape the resistance and resilience landscape prior to storm exposure. To determine whether storm characteristics or antecedent lake conditions are more important for explaining variation in lake ecosystem resistance and resilience, we analyzed the effects of 25 extreme wind storms on various biological and physiochemical variables in a shallow lake. Using boosted regression trees to model observed variation in resistance and resilience, we found that antecedent lake conditions were more important (relative importance = 67%) than storm characteristics (relative importance = 33%) in explaining variation in lake ecosystem resistance and resilience. The most important antecedent lake conditions were turbidity, Schmidt stability, %O2 saturation, light conditions, and soluble reactive silica concentrations. We found that storm characteristics were all similar in their relative importance and results suggest that resistance and resilience decrease with increasing duration, mean precipitation, shear stress intensity, and time between storms. In addition, we found that antagonistic or opposing effects between the biological and physiochemical variables influence the overall resistance and resilience of the lake ecosystem under specific lake and storm conditions. The extent to which these results apply to the resistance and resilience of different lake ecosystems remains an important area for inquiry. |
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| AbstractList | Extreme wind storms can strongly influence short‐term variation in lake ecosystem functioning. Climate change is affecting storms by altering their frequency, duration, and intensity, which may have consequences for lake ecosystem resistance and resilience. However, catchment and lake processes are simultaneously affecting antecedent lake conditions which may shape the resistance and resilience landscape prior to storm exposure. To determine whether storm characteristics or antecedent lake conditions are more important for explaining variation in lake ecosystem resistance and resilience, we analyzed the effects of 25 extreme wind storms on various biological and physiochemical variables in a shallow lake. Using boosted regression trees to model observed variation in resistance and resilience, we found that antecedent lake conditions were more important (relative importance = 67%) than storm characteristics (relative importance = 33%) in explaining variation in lake ecosystem resistance and resilience. The most important antecedent lake conditions were turbidity, Schmidt stability, %O2 saturation, light conditions, and soluble reactive silica concentrations. We found that storm characteristics were all similar in their relative importance and results suggest that resistance and resilience decrease with increasing duration, mean precipitation, shear stress intensity, and time between storms. In addition, we found that antagonistic or opposing effects between the biological and physiochemical variables influence the overall resistance and resilience of the lake ecosystem under specific lake and storm conditions. The extent to which these results apply to the resistance and resilience of different lake ecosystems remains an important area for inquiry. |
| Author | Mesman, Jorrit P. Adrian, Rita Thayne, Michael W. Ibelings, Bastiaan W. Kraemer, Benjamin M. |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Michael W. orcidid: 0000-0003-0541-3392 surname: Thayne fullname: Thayne, Michael W. email: thayne@igb-berlin.de organization: University of Geneva – sequence: 2 givenname: Benjamin M. surname: Kraemer fullname: Kraemer, Benjamin M. organization: Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries – sequence: 3 givenname: Jorrit P. surname: Mesman fullname: Mesman, Jorrit P. organization: Uppsala University – sequence: 4 givenname: Bastiaan W. surname: Ibelings fullname: Ibelings, Bastiaan W. organization: University of Geneva – sequence: 5 givenname: Rita surname: Adrian fullname: Adrian, Rita organization: Freie Universität Berlin |
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| Copyright | 2021 The Authors. published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Association for the Sciences of Limnology and Oceanography. |
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| Notes | Nonlinear dynamics, resilience, and regime shifts in aquaticcommunities and ecosystems[Correction added on 07 July 2021, after first online publication] Special Issue |
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