Timing based clustering of childhood BMI trajectories reveals differential maturational patterns; Study in the Northern Finland Birth Cohorts 1966 and 1986

• Published in: International Journal of Obesity Vol. 49; no. 5; pp. 872 - 880
• Main Authors: Heiskala, Anni, Tucker, J. Derek, Choudhary, Priyanka, Nedelec, Rozenn, Ronkainen, Justiina, Sarala, Olli, Järvelin, Marjo-Riitta, Sillanpää, Mikko J., Sebert, Sylvain
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: England Nature Publishing Group 01.05.2025; Nature Publishing Group UK
• Subjects: 60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES; Adolescent; Age; Birth Cohort; Body Mass Index; Body-Weight Trajectory; Child; Child Development - physiology; Child, Preschool; Children; Cluster Analysis; Clustering; Cohort Studies; Female; Females; Finland - epidemiology; Humans; Infant; Male; Males; Pediatric Obesity - epidemiology; Phase variations; Population studies; Finland
• ISSN: 0307-0565; 1476-5497; 1476-5497
• DOI: 10.1038/s41366-025-01714-8

Children's biological age does not always correspond to their chronological age. In the case of BMI trajectories, this can appear as phase variation, which can be seen as shift, stretch, or shrinking between trajectories. With maturation thought of as a process moving towards the final state - adult BMI, we assessed whether children can be divided into latent groups reflecting similar maturational age of BMI. The groups were characterised by early factors and time-related features of the trajectories. We used data from two general population birth cohort studies, Northern Finland Birth Cohorts 1966 and 1986 (NFBC1966 and NFBC1986). Height (n = 6329) and weight (n = 6568) measurements were interpolated in 34 shared time points using B-splines, and BMI values were calculated between 3 months to 16 years. Pairwise phase distances of 2999 females and 3163 males were used as a similarity measure in k-medoids clustering. We identified three clusters of trajectories in females and males (Type 1: females, n = 1566, males, n = 1669; Type 2: females, n = 1028, males, n = 973; Type 3: females, n = 405, males, n = 521). Similar distinct timing patterns were identified in males and females. The clusters did not differ by sex, or early growth determinants studied. Trajectory cluster Type 1 reflected to the shape of what is typically illustrated as the childhood BMI trajectory in literature. However, the other two have not been identified previously. Type 2 pattern was more common in the NFBC1966 suggesting a generational shift in BMI maturational patterns.