Combining quantiles of calibrated solar forecasts from ensemble numerical weather prediction

• Published in: Renewable energy Vol. 215; p. 118993
• Main Authors: Yang, Dazhi, Yang, Guoming, Liu, Bai
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier Ltd 01.10.2023
• Subjects: Calibration; Combining quantiles; Ensemble numerical weather prediction; European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts; light intensity; linear programming; prediction; regression analysis; solar energy; Solar forecasting; weather forecasting; QR; CQRA; SQA; European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts; CDF; QRF; NWP; QRNN; Combining quantiles; GHI; QRL; SURFRAD; Calibration; EMOS; CRPS; IGN; Ensemble numerical weather prediction; PDF; Solar forecasting; ECMWF; BMA; NSRDB

This work is concerned with optimally combining quantiles of several post-processed versions of ensemble solar forecasts, which is new in this field. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) serves grid integration of solar energy by issuing dynamical ensemble irradiance forecasts. However, these ensemble...