Terrestrial insects and climate change: adaptive responses in key traits

• Published in: Physiological entomology Vol. 44; no. 2; pp. 99 - 115
• Main Authors: Kellermann, Vanessa, van Heerwaarden, Belinda
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Oxford, UK The Royal Entomological Society 01.06.2019; Wiley Subscription Services, Inc
• Subjects: Adaptation; Agricultural conservation; Agricultural management; Biodiversity; Climate change; Climate models; Complexity; CTmax; evolutionary potential; Field tests; Fitness; Fruit flies; heat; heritability; Insects; latitude; phenology; phenotypic plasticity; Predictions; Reproductive fitness; Resilience; Shape; Species; stress resistance; Terrestrial environments; thermal performance curves; upper thermal limits; Wildlife conservation
• DOI: 10.1111/phen.12282
• ISSN: 0307-6962

Understanding and predicting how adaptation will contribute to species' resilience to climate change will be paramount to successfully managing biodiversity for conservation, agriculture, and human health‐related purposes. Making predictions that capture how species will respond to climate change requires an understanding of how key traits and environmental drivers interact to shape fitness in a changing world. Current trait‐based models suggest that low‐ to mid‐latitude populations will be most at risk, although these models focus on upper thermal limits, which may not be the most important trait driving species' distributions and fitness under climate change. In this review, we discuss how different traits (stress, fitness and phenology) might contribute and interact to shape insect responses to climate change. We examine the potential for adaptive genetic and plastic responses in these key traits and show that, although there is evidence of range shifts and trait changes, explicit consideration of what underpins these changes, be that genetic or plastic responses, is largely missing. Despite little empirical evidence for adaptive shifts, incorporating adaptation into models of climate change resilience is essential for predicting how species will respond under climate change. We are making some headway, although more data are needed, especially from taxonomic groups outside of Drosophila, and across diverse geographical regions. Climate change responses are likely to be complex, and such complexity will be difficult to capture in laboratory experiments. Moving towards well designed field experiments would allow us to not only capture this complexity, but also study more diverse species. Making predictions that capture how and which insect species will respond adaptively to climate change requires an understanding of which key traits and environmental drivers interact to shape fitness in a changing world. We explore how stress resistance, fitness and phenology shape current distributions and future responses to climate, as well as the evidence for adaptive genetic and plastic responses in these traits. Although there is evidence of range shifts and trait changes, few studies disentangle genetic and plastic responses. More data from taxonomically diverse groups, capturing field complexity are required.