Long-Lived Mesoscale Convective Systems over Eastern South Africa

• Published in: Journal of climate Vol. 34; no. 15; pp. 6421 - 6439
• Main Authors: Morake, D. M., Blamey, R. C., Reason, C. J. C.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Boston American Meteorological Society 01.08.2021
• Subjects: Antarctic Oscillation; Climatology; Escarpments; Inflow; Interannual variability; Life cycle; Life cycles; Lower atmosphere; Mesoscale convective systems; Mesoscale phenomena; Moisture effects; Seasonal variation; Summer; Vertical shear; Water inflow; South Africa
• DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0851.1
• ISSN: 0894-8755

A climatology of large, long-lived mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) over eastern South Africa for the extended austral summer (September–April) from 1985 to 2008 is presented. On average, 63 MCSs occur here in summer, but with considerable interannual variability in frequency. The systems mainly occur between November and March, with a December peak. This seasonal cycle in MCS activity is shown to coincide with favorable CAPE and vertical shear profiles across the domain. Most systems tend to occur along the eastern escarpment and adjacent warm waters of the northern Agulhas Current with a nocturnal life cycle. Typically, initiation begins in the early afternoon, MCS status is reached midafternoon, maximum extent early in the night, and termination around midnight or shortly thereafter. It is found that most MCSs initiate over land, but systems that initiate over the ocean tend to last longer than those that develop over land. The results also show that there are differences in the seasonal cycle between continental and oceanic MCSs, with oceanic systems containing two intraseasonal peaks (December and April). There is a relatively strong positive relationship between the southern annular mode (SAM) and early summer MCS frequency. For the late summer, the frequency of MCSs appears related to the strength of the Mascarene high and Mozambique Channel trough, which modulate the inflow of moisture into eastern South Africa and the stability of the lower atmosphere over the region.