Human Behavior in Project Portfolio Selection: Insights from an Experimental Study

ABSTRACT Choosing the right subset from a set of candidate projects is a key driver of success and failure in new product development (NPD). In many cases, managers make these decisions based on intuition or simple rules. We investigate how human decision makers act in the context of project portfol...

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Published inDecision sciences Vol. 49; no. 6; pp. 1061 - 1087
Main Authors Schiffels, Sebastian, Fliedner, Thomas, Kolisch, Rainer
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Atlanta American Institute for Decision Sciences 01.12.2018
Subjects
Adherence
Adhesion
Behavior
Behavioral Operations
Candidates
Cognitive impairment
Decision Heuristics
Decision makers
Decision making
Heuristic
Human behavior
Intuition
Knapsack problem
New Product Development
Product development
Project Portfolio Selection
Online AccessGet full text
ISSN0011-7315
1540-5915
DOI10.1111/deci.12310

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Abstract ABSTRACT Choosing the right subset from a set of candidate projects is a key driver of success and failure in new product development (NPD). In many cases, managers make these decisions based on intuition or simple rules. We investigate how human decision makers act in the context of project portfolio selection conducting experimental studies based on the knapsack problem. We address the question about which decision rules people apply to select a portfolio and how cognitive limitations influence their selection process. Grounded in portfolio selection practice, we investigate subjects' adherence to four heuristics. Decision making is partially explained by adherence to one simple decision rule, but decision makers' cognitive capacity limits the application of this heuristic. Subjects' cognitive deficits can be avoided by offering basic decision support, thereby increasing their heuristic adherence and their performance. 
AbstractList ABSTRACT Choosing the right subset from a set of candidate projects is a key driver of success and failure in new product development (NPD). In many cases, managers make these decisions based on intuition or simple rules. We investigate how human decision makers act in the context of project portfolio selection conducting experimental studies based on the knapsack problem. We address the question about which decision rules people apply to select a portfolio and how cognitive limitations influence their selection process. Grounded in portfolio selection practice, we investigate subjects' adherence to four heuristics. Decision making is partially explained by adherence to one simple decision rule, but decision makers' cognitive capacity limits the application of this heuristic. Subjects' cognitive deficits can be avoided by offering basic decision support, thereby increasing their heuristic adherence and their performance. 
Choosing the right subset from a set of candidate projects is a key driver of success and failure in new product development (NPD). In many cases, managers make these decisions based on intuition or simple rules. We investigate how human decision makers act in the context of project portfolio selection conducting experimental studies based on the knapsack problem. We address the question about which decision rules people apply to select a portfolio and how cognitive limitations influence their selection process. Grounded in portfolio selection practice, we investigate subjects' adherence to four heuristics. Decision making is partially explained by adherence to one simple decision rule, but decision makers' cognitive capacity limits the application of this heuristic. Subjects' cognitive deficits can be avoided by offering basic decision support, thereby increasing their heuristic adherence and their performance.
Choosing the right subset from a set of candidate projects is a key driver of success and failure in new product development (NPD). In many cases, managers make these decisions based on intuition or simple rules. We investigate how human decision makers act in the context of project portfolio selection conducting experimental studies based on the knapsack problem. We address the question about which decision rules people apply to select a portfolio and how cognitive limitations influence their selection process. Grounded in portfolio selection practice, we investigate subjects' adherence to four heuristics. Decision making is partially explained by adherence to one simple decision rule, but decision makers' cognitive capacity limits the application of this heuristic. Subjects' cognitive deficits can be avoided by offering basic decision support, thereby increasing their heuristic adherence and their performance. 
Author Fliedner, Thomas
Schiffels, Sebastian
Kolisch, Rainer
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  givenname: Thomas
  surname: Fliedner
  fullname: Fliedner, Thomas
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  givenname: Rainer
  surname: Kolisch
  fullname: Kolisch, Rainer
  email: rainer.kolisch@tum.de
  organization: TUM School of Management
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– volume-title: Portfolio management for new products
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Snippet ABSTRACT Choosing the right subset from a set of candidate projects is a key driver of success and failure in new product development (NPD). In many cases,...
Choosing the right subset from a set of candidate projects is a key driver of success and failure in new product development (NPD). In many cases, managers...
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StartPage 1061
SubjectTerms Adherence
Adhesion
Behavior
Behavioral Operations
Candidates
Cognitive impairment
Decision Heuristics
Decision makers
Decision making
Heuristic
Human behavior
Intuition
Knapsack problem
New Product Development
Product development
Project Portfolio Selection
Title Human Behavior in Project Portfolio Selection: Insights from an Experimental Study
URI https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111%2Fdeci.12310
https://www.proquest.com/docview/2160690092
Volume 49
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