Algorithms for Bayesian network modeling and reliability inference of complex multistate systems: Part I – Independent systems

• Published in: Reliability engineering & system safety Vol. 202; p. 107011
• Main Authors: Zheng, Xiaohu, Yao, Wen, Xu, Yingchun, Chen, Xiaoqian
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Barking Elsevier Ltd 01.10.2020; Elsevier BV
• Subjects: Algorithms; Bayesian analysis; Bayesian network; Complex multistate independent systems; Component reliability; Compression; compression algorithm; Conditional probability; Inference; Network reliability; Random access memory; reliability analysis; Reliability engineering; Storage requirements; Complex multistate independent systems; compression algorithm; reliability analysis; Bayesian network
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2020.107011
• ISSN: 0951-8320

•Multistate compression and inference algorithms are applicable to any complex systems.•Given the evidence, backward inference algorithm can update the probability distributions of all nodes.•The potential application of the proposed algorithms in the reliability-based optimization for complex engineering systems. As the number of complex multistate systems’ components increases, one major challenge to analyze the reliabilities of complex multistate systems by Bayesian network (BN) is that the memory storage requirements (MSRs) of conditional probability table (CPT) increase exponentially. When the components reach a certain amount, the MSRs of CPT will exceed the computer's random access memory (RAM). To solve this problem, this two-part paper proposes a novel multistate compression algorithm to compress the CPT so that the MSRs of CPT can be reduced apparently. In this Part I, an independent multistate inference algorithm is proposed to perform the inference of BN based on the compressed CPT for the complex multistate independent systems. Given the evidence of system, the backward inference algorithm is proposed to update the probability distributions of compoents. The above proposed algorithms can be generally applied to any complex multistate independent system without constraints on system structure and state configurations. In addition, the Part II studies the application of compression idea in the complex multistate dependent systems. Finally, two case studies are used to validate the performance of the proposed algorithms.