Calibrating experts’ probabilistic assessments for improved probabilistic predictions

• Published in: Safety science Vol. 118; pp. 763 - 771
• Main Authors: Hanea, A.M., Nane, G.F.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Amsterdam Elsevier Ltd 01.10.2019; Elsevier BV
• Subjects: Agglomeration; Calibration; Decision making; Decisions; Expert systems; Geopolitics; Mechanical properties; Performance based weighting; Probabilistic predictions; Probability; Questions; Structured expert judgement; Performance based weighting; Calibration; Structured expert judgement; Probabilistic predictions

•We propose a new calibration measure to evaluate experts’ probability assessments.•The new calibration measure is compared with established calibration measures.•Theoretical properties of the new calibration are investigated are discussed.•We contrast and discuss results using a large data-set of e...