Limited climatic space for alternative ecosystem states in Africa
One of the foundational premises of ecology is that climate determines ecosystems. This has been challenged by alternative ecosystem state models, which illustrate that internal ecosystem dynamics acting on the initial ecosystem state can overwhelm the influence of climate, and by observations sugge...
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| Published in | Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science) Vol. 380; no. 6649; pp. 1038 - 1042 |
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| Main Authors | , , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
United States
The American Association for the Advancement of Science
09.06.2023
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| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
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| Abstract | One of the foundational premises of ecology is that climate determines ecosystems. This has been challenged by alternative ecosystem state models, which illustrate that internal ecosystem dynamics acting on the initial ecosystem state can overwhelm the influence of climate, and by observations suggesting that climate cannot reliably discriminate forest and savanna ecosystem types. Using a novel phytoclimatic transform, which estimates the ability of climate to support different types of plants, we show that climatic suitability for evergreen trees and C4 grasses are sufficient to discriminate between forest and savanna in Africa. Our findings reassert the dominant influence of climate on ecosystems and suggest that the role of feedbacks causing alternative ecosystem states is less prevalent than has been suggested. |
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| AbstractList | One of the foundational premises of ecology is that climate determines ecosystems. This has been challenged by alternative ecosystem state models, which illustrate that internal ecosystem dynamics acting on the initial ecosystem state can overwhelm the influence of climate, and by observations suggesting that climate cannot reliably discriminate forest and savanna ecosystem types. Using a novel phytoclimatic transform, which estimates the ability of climate to support different types of plants, we show that climatic suitability for evergreen trees and C4 grasses are sufficient to discriminate between forest and savanna in Africa. Our findings reassert the dominant influence of climate on ecosystems and suggest that the role of feedbacks causing alternative ecosystem states is less prevalent than has been suggested. One of the foundational premises of ecology is that climate determines ecosystems. This has been challenged by alternative ecosystem state models, which illustrate that internal ecosystem dynamics acting on the initial ecosystem state can overwhelm the influence of climate, and by observations suggesting that climate cannot reliably discriminate forest and savanna ecosystem types. Using a novel phytoclimatic transform, which estimates the ability of climate to support different types of plants, we show that climatic suitability for evergreen trees and C4 grasses are sufficient to discriminate between forest and savanna in Africa. Our findings reassert the dominant influence of climate on ecosystems and suggest that the role of feedbacks causing alternative ecosystem states is less prevalent than has been suggested. Editor’s summary The distribution of vegetation types across the globe is determined by climate, but at the local or regional scale, very different vegetation can occur depending on past disturbances and species interactions. Higgins et al . investigated how well climate alone can predict the distribution of forest and savanna across tropical and subtropical Africa. Using vegetation plot data, the authors created niche projections for more than 9000 plant species and climate suitability estimates for major growth forms. The resulting model predicted forest versus savanna occurrence with high accuracy, suggesting that spatial variation in climate drives both large-scale and relatively fine-scale vegetation patterns. The effects of climate change on the distribution of African forest and savanna may thus be more predictable than has previously been recognized. —Bianca Lopez Field observations show that the distribution of African forest and savanna are highly predictable based on climate. Editor’s summaryThe distribution of vegetation types across the globe is determined by climate, but at the local or regional scale, very different vegetation can occur depending on past disturbances and species interactions. Higgins et al. investigated how well climate alone can predict the distribution of forest and savanna across tropical and subtropical Africa. Using vegetation plot data, the authors created niche projections for more than 9000 plant species and climate suitability estimates for major growth forms. The resulting model predicted forest versus savanna occurrence with high accuracy, suggesting that spatial variation in climate drives both large-scale and relatively fine-scale vegetation patterns. The effects of climate change on the distribution of African forest and savanna may thus be more predictable than has previously been recognized. —Bianca Lopez |
| Author | Kruger, Laurence M Higgins, Steven I O'Hara, Robert B Slingsby, Jasper A Conradi, Timo |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Steven I orcidid: 0000-0001-5695-9665 surname: Higgins fullname: Higgins, Steven I organization: Plant Ecology, University of Bayreuth, Universitaetsstrasse 30, 95447 Bayreuth, Germany – sequence: 2 givenname: Timo surname: Conradi fullname: Conradi, Timo organization: Plant Ecology, University of Bayreuth, Universitaetsstrasse 30, 95447 Bayreuth, Germany – sequence: 3 givenname: Laurence M orcidid: 0000-0001-9018-7136 surname: Kruger fullname: Kruger, Laurence M organization: Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cape Town, South Africa – sequence: 4 givenname: Robert B orcidid: 0000-0001-9737-3724 surname: O'Hara fullname: O'Hara, Robert B organization: Department of Mathematical Sciences, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim N-7491 Norway – sequence: 5 givenname: Jasper A orcidid: 0000-0003-1246-1181 surname: Slingsby fullname: Slingsby, Jasper A organization: Fynbos Node, South African Environmental Observation Network (SAEON), South Africa |
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| Snippet | One of the foundational premises of ecology is that climate determines ecosystems. This has been challenged by alternative ecosystem state models, which... Editor’s summaryThe distribution of vegetation types across the globe is determined by climate, but at the local or regional scale, very different vegetation... |
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| SubjectTerms | Africa Climate Climate change Climate effects Climate prediction Ecosystem Forests Plant species Plants Savannahs Spatial variations Trees Tropical forests Vegetation Vegetation patterns |
| Title | Limited climatic space for alternative ecosystem states in Africa |
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