Prudence versus predation and the gains from trade
We analyze a dynamic, two-country model that highlights the various trade-offs each country faces between current consumption and competing investments in its future productive and military capacities as it prepares for a possible conflict in the future. Our focus is on the circumstances under which...
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| Published in | Journal of economic theory Vol. 201; p. 105434 |
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| Main Authors | , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
Elsevier Inc
01.04.2022
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| Abstract | We analyze a dynamic, two-country model that highlights the various trade-offs each country faces between current consumption and competing investments in its future productive and military capacities as it prepares for a possible conflict in the future. Our focus is on the circumstances under which the effects of current trade between the two countries on the future balance of power render trade unappealing to one of them. We find that a positive probability of future conflict induces the country with less resource wealth to “prey” on the relatively more “prudent” behavior of its larger rival, and more so as conflict becomes more likely. While a shift from autarky to trade always raises the current incomes of both countries, the smaller country realizes the relatively larger income gain from trade and also devotes a relatively larger share of its income gain towards arming. Our analysis shows that the larger country rationally chooses not to trade today when the difference in initial resource wealth is sufficiently large and is more likely to prefer autarky when the probability of future conflict is higher. |
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| AbstractList | We analyze a dynamic, two-country model that highlights the various trade-offs each country faces between current consumption and competing investments in its future productive and military capacities as it prepares for a possible conflict in the future. Our focus is on the circumstances under which the effects of current trade between the two countries on the future balance of power render trade unappealing to one of them. We find that a positive probability of future conflict induces the country with less resource wealth to “prey” on the relatively more “prudent” behavior of its larger rival, and more so as conflict becomes more likely. While a shift from autarky to trade always raises the current incomes of both countries, the smaller country realizes the relatively larger income gain from trade and also devotes a relatively larger share of its income gain towards arming. Our analysis shows that the larger country rationally chooses not to trade today when the difference in initial resource wealth is sufficiently large and is more likely to prefer autarky when the probability of future conflict is higher. |
| ArticleNumber | 105434 |
| Author | Zylkin, Thomas Syropoulos, Constantinos Garfinkel, Michelle R. |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Michelle R. surname: Garfinkel fullname: Garfinkel, Michelle R. email: mrgarfin@uci.edu organization: University of California-Irvine, 3151 Social Science Plaza, Irvine CA 92697, USA – sequence: 2 givenname: Constantinos surname: Syropoulos fullname: Syropoulos, Constantinos email: c.syropoulos@drexel.edu organization: LeBow College of Business, Drexel University, 3220 Market Street, Philadelphia PA 19104, USA – sequence: 3 givenname: Thomas surname: Zylkin fullname: Zylkin, Thomas email: tzylkin@richmond.edu organization: Robins School of Business, University of Richmond, 102 UR Drive, Richmond, VA 23173, USA |
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| Cites_doi | 10.1162/isec.21.1.147 10.1177/0022009405049270 10.1111/1468-0262.00467 10.1111/j.1542-4774.2011.01025.x 10.1257/aer.91.2.353 10.1177/002200278002400103 10.2307/3866403 10.1111/j.1468-0343.1991.tb00046.x 10.1016/j.jinteco.2008.07.005 10.1111/j.1743-8594.2011.00146.x 10.1177/0022002704263954 10.1111/ecoj.12511 10.1177/002234336800500201 10.1257/aer.97.4.1353 10.1007/BF01213906 10.1111/j.1468-0297.2005.01016.x 10.1177/0968344516638383 10.1016/j.jinteco.2014.10.001 10.2307/2010342 10.2307/1963947 10.1111/1468-0335.641066 10.1162/rest.2009.12023 10.1111/1468-0262.00352 10.1111/j.1467-937X.2008.00492.x 10.1257/jel.20161353 10.1006/jeth.2001.2828 10.1016/j.jinteco.2020.103295 10.1016/j.jinteco.2014.11.013 |
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| Keywords | D30 D74 Interstate disputes Arming F51 F10 F20 Investment decisions Trade openness |
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