Is Athletes' Sixth Sense Real, or a Postdictive Reconstruction?

• Published in: International Journal of Sport and Health Science Vol. 22; pp. 97 - 102
• Main Authors: Kadota, Koji, Okumura, Motoki, Shimojo, Shinsuke
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English; Japanese
• Published: Japan Society of Physical Education, Health and Sport Sciences 2024; Japan Society of Physical Education, Health and Sport sciences
• Subjects: cognitive dissonance; postdiction; pre- and pos-game questionnaires; prediction and outcome
• ISSN: 1348-1509; 1880-4012
• DOI: 10.5432/ijshs.202402

Athletes frequently assert their ability to foresee outcome in an upcoming game, often attributing it to so-called sixth sense. This paper investigates whether this foresight is genuine prediction, or a postdictive reconstruction that emerges post game. We conducted a study with 113 athletes to unravel this cognitive phenomenon. Participants completed a pre-game questionnaire, including queries about their mental and physical states, and more. Key to our investigation was the question: How do you think you will perform today? Subsequently, after the games, we administered a similar set of questions, introducing another critical query focused on postdictive reconstruction: How did you think you would perform this morning? Remarkably, even with the same question asked within 24 hours to the same participants, 60.2% of athletes altered their memory of their initial predictions, revealing a clear instance of postdictive reconstruction. Furthermore, an intriguing pattern emerged: those who experienced defeat tended to revise predictions negatively, while victors leaned towards more positive revisions. This interaction turned out highly significant, challenging the conventional cognitive tendency to maintain consistency with one's own past. These findings suggest an automatic and implicit inclination among athletes to postdictively adapt their memories of performance predictions to align with actual outcomes. Our study provides compelling evidence that athletes' claims of intuitive prediction are primarily postdictive in nature. This cognitive process sheds light on the role of memory in self assessment and the dynamic nature of human cognition, offering insights into athletes' psychological experiences and the broader domain of postdiction.